Evolutionary rescue by beneficial mutations in environments that change in space and time

A factor that may limit the ability of many populations to adapt to changing conditions is the rate at which beneficial mutations can become established. We study the probability that mutations become established in changing environments by extending the classic theory for branching processes. When environments change in time, under quite general conditions, the establishment probability is approximately twice the ‘effective selection coefficient’, whose value is an average that gives most weight to a mutant''s fitness in the generations immediately after it appears. When fitness varies along a gradient in a continuous habitat, increased dispersal generally decreases the chance a mutation establishes because mutations move out of areas where they are most adapted. When there is a patch of favourable habitat that moves in time, there is a maximum speed of movement above which mutations cannot become established, regardless of when and where they first appear. This critical speed limit, which is proportional to the mutation''s maximum selective advantage, represents an absolute constraint on the potential of locally adapted mutations to contribute to evolutionary rescue.     

Towards a theory of the evolution of butterfly colour patterns under directional and disruptive selection

Two general models for the transspecific evolution of butterfly colour patterns are advanced: directional selection acting equally on both sexes, and disruptive selection involving periods of polymorphism. To consider possible outcomes of me latter process, a morphism notation based on an integrated classification for polymorphism and sexual dimorphism is developed. This notation is used to examine the properties of all morphism transformations possible from the minimal expressions of the nine morphism categories, as reached through defined minimum step changes. The significance of such pathway models is analysed in terms of general properties of butterfly polymorphism. The potential use of pathway models in evolutionary studies is briefly discussed, mainly with respect to phylogenetics, and ideas on the evolution of genetic dominance.     

Exclosure fences around nests of imperiled Florida Grasshopper Sparrows reduce rates of predation by mammals

Increasing nest survival by excluding predators is a goal of many bird conservation programs. However, new exclosure projects should be carefully evaluated to assess the potential risks of disturbance. We tested the effectiveness of predator exclosure fences (hereafter, fences) for nests of critically endangered Florida Grasshopper Sparrows (Ammodramus savannarum floridanus) at a dry prairie site (Three Lakes; 2015–2018) and a pasture site (the Ranch; 2015–2016) in Osceola County, Florida, USA. We installed fences at nests an average of 8 days after the start of incubation, and nest abandonment after fence installation was rare (2 of 149 installations). Predation was the leading cause of failure for unfenced nests at both sites (48–73%). At Three Lakes, nest cameras revealed that mammals and snakes were responsible for 61.5% and 38.5% of predation events, respectively, at unfenced nests. Fences reduced the daily probability of predation (0.016 for fenced nests vs. 0.074 for unfenced nests). The probability that a fenced nest would survive from discovery to fledging was more than double that of unfenced nests (60.4% vs. 27.7%). However, we found no difference in daily nest survival at the Ranch between the year before nests were fenced (2015; 0.874) and the year when all but one nest were fenced (2016; 0.867) because red imported fire ants (Solenopsis invicta) were responsible for 86% of predation events at fenced nests at the Ranch. The use of cameras at fenced nests revealed that site‐specific differences in nest predators explained variation in fence efficiency between sites. Our fence design may be useful for other species of grassland birds, but site‐specific predator communities and species‐specific response of target bird species to fences should be assessed before installing fences at other sites.     

Microsecond Dynamics During the Binding-induced Folding of an Intrinsically Disordered Protein

Tau is an intrinsically disordered protein implicated in many neurodegenerative diseases. The repeat domain fragment of tau, tau-K18, is known to undergo a disorder to order transition in the presence of lipid micelles and vesicles, in which helices form in each of the repeat domains. Here, the mechanism of helical structure formation, induced by a phospholipid mimetic, sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS) at sub-micellar concentrations, has been studied using multiple biophysical probes. A study of the conformational dynamics of the disordered state, using photoinduced electron transfer coupled to fluorescence correlation spectroscopy (PET-FCS) has indicated the presence of an intermediate state, I, in equilibrium with the unfolded state, U. The cooperative binding of the ligand (L), SDS, to I has been shown to induce the formation of a compact, helical intermediate (IL₅) within the dead time (∼37 µs) of a continuous flow mixer. Quantitative analysis of the PET-FCS data and the ensemble microsecond kinetic data, suggests that the mechanism of induction of helical structure can be described by a U ↔ I ↔ IL₅ ↔ FL₅ mechanism, in which the final helical state, FL₅, forms from IL₅ with a time constant of 50–200 µs. Finally, it has been shown that the helical conformation is an aggregation-competent state that can directly form amyloid fibrils.     

Semiparametric Regression in Size-Biased Sampling

Summary .  Size-biased sampling arises when a positive-valued outcome variable is sampled with selection probability proportional to its size. In this article, we propose a semiparametric linear regression model to analyze size-biased outcomes. In our proposed model, the regression parameters of covariates are of major interest, while the distribution of random errors is unspecified. Under the proposed model, we discover that regression parameters are invariant regardless of size-biased sampling. Following this invariance property, we develop a simple estimation procedure for inferences. Our proposed methods are evaluated in simulation studies and applied to two real data analyses.     

Optimizing purebred selection for crossbred performance using QTL with different degrees of dominance

A method was developed to optimize simultaneous selection for a quantitative trait with a known QTL within a male and a female line to maximize crossbred performance from a two-way cross. Strategies to maximize cumulative discounted response in crossbred performance over ten generations were derived by optimizing weights in an index of a QTL and phenotype. Strategies were compared to selection on purebred phenotype. Extra responses were limited for QTL with additive and partial dominance effects, but substantial for QTL with over-dominance, for which optimal QTL selection resulted in differential selection in male and female lines to increase the frequency of heterozygotes and polygenic responses. For over-dominant QTL, maximization of crossbred performance one generation at a time resulted in similar responses as optimization across all generations and simultaneous optimal selection in a male and female line resulted in greater response than optimal selection within a single line without crossbreeding. Results show that strategic use of information on over-dominant QTL can enhance crossbred performance without crossbred testing.     

Spatial and temporal factors associated with nest survival of Gray Flycatchers in managed ponderosa pine forests

Gray Flycatchers (Empidonax wrightii) breed in a variety of habitats in the arid and semi‐arid regions of the western United States, but little is known about their breeding biology, especially in the northern portion of their range where they nest in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests. From May to July 2014 and 2015, we conducted surveys for singing male Gray Flycatchers along the eastern slope of the Cascade Range in Washington, U.S.A, monitored flycatcher nests, and quantified nest‐site vegetation. We used a logistic‐exposure model fit within a Bayesian framework to model the daily survival probability of flycatcher nests. During the 2 yr of our study, we monitored 141 nests, with 93% in ponderosa pines. Mean clutch size was 3.6 eggs and the mean number of young fledged per nest was 3.2. Predation accounted for 90% of failed nests. We found a positive association between daily nest survival and both nest height and distance of nest substrates from the nearest tree. Flycatchers that locate their nests higher above the ground and further from adjacent trees may be choosing the safest alternative because higher nests may be less exposed to terrestrial predators and nests in trees that are farther from other trees may be less exposed to arboreal predators such as jays (Corvidae) that may forage in patches with connected canopies. Nests in trees farther from other trees may also allow earlier detection of approaching predators and thus aid in nest defense.     

Influence of thermoperiod and photoperiod on reproductive diapause in Bruchidius atrolineatus (Pic) (Coleoptera, Bruchidae)

Abstract Bruchidius atrolineatus (Pic) is a common pest infesting cowpea seeds ( Vigna unguiculata Walp) in Africa. In the Sahelian zone, the adults are in reproductive diapause during the dry season. Diapause induction depends on the climatic conditions during embryonic and post-embryonic development. A strain of B. atrolineatus originating from the Niamey (13^oN) was reared in different thermoperiodic and photoperiodic conditions. In the thermoperiodic regime 40:25^oC, in continuous darkness, induction of diapause was dependent on the duration of the thermophase. Photoperiod could also influence diapause induction but the response depended on the temperature. When the beetles were reared in conditions of LD 12:12 h, 40:25^oC, for seven generations, the proportion of diapausing adults decreased and their sensitivity to photoperiod increased. In LD 14:10 h, 40:25^CC, the proportion of diapausing adults remained high regardless of the photoperiod. In these conditions, the first emerging adults were sexually active and were used for selection of a strain with a low incidence of diapause. After twelve generations, the proportion of diapausing beetles was lower than 5%. The responses of this selected strain to photo- and thermoperiods were reduced. The sensitivity of B. atrolineatus to photoperiod and thermoperiod could be controlled by genetic systems as observed in other insect species.