Predicting the unexpected: using a qualitative model of a New Zealand dryland ecosystem to anticipate pest management outcomes

Pest management is expensive and there is often uncertainty about the benefits for the resources being protected. There can also be unintended consequences for other parts of the ecosystem, especially in complex food webs. In making decisions managers generally have to rely on qualitative information collected in a piecemeal fashion. A method to assist decision making is a qualitative modelling approach using fuzzy cognitive maps, a directed graphical model related to neural networks that can take account of interactions between pests and conservation assets in complex food webs. Using all available information on relationships between native and exotic resources and consumers, we generated hypotheses about potential consequences of single‐species and multi‐species pest control on the long‐term equilibrium abundances of other biotic components of an ecosystem. We applied the model to a dryland ecosystem in New Zealand because we had good information on its trophic structure, but the information on the strength of species interactions was imprecise. Our model suggested that pest control is unlikely to significantly boost native invertebrates and lizards in this ecosystem, suggesting that other forms of management may be required for these groups. Most of the pest control regimes tested resulted in greater abundances of at least one other pest species, which could potentially lead to other management problems. Some of the predictions were unexpected, such as more birds resulting from possum and mouse control. We also modelled the effects of an increase in invasive rabbits, which led to unexpected declines of stoats, weasels, mice and possums. These unexpected outcomes resulted from complex indirect pathways in the food web. Fuzzy cognitive maps allow rapid construction of prototype models of complex food webs using a wide range of data and expert opinion. Their utility lies in providing direction for future monitoring efforts and generating hypotheses that can be tested with field experiments.     

Habitat ecological integrity and environmental impact assessment of anthropic activities: A GIS-based fuzzy logic model for sites of high biodiversity conservation interest

In literature, an effective method enabling the classification, based on a single indicator, of habitats that need a priority protection intervention has not been identified yet. Moreover, the excessive number of landscape metrics, used to quantify integrity of habitats, can cause confusion, often providing redundant and inconsistent results.The aim of this work is to develop a method for evaluating the ecological vulnerability of the habitats in sites of high biodiversity conservation interest. In the first phase, we selected and analyzed, by using principal component analysis (PCA) and fuzzy logic, the landscape metrics, in order to obtain the map of the intrinsic ecological vulnerability index. In the second step, the result of this intrinsic vulnerability was connected, through another fuzzy model, to anthropogenic impacts, obtaining the integrated ecological vulnerability index. We developed specific spatial indicators (landscape metrics), which can examine the mutual position and morphology of the habitats present, along with indicators of human pressure, related to the type and intensity of use of the anthropic territory, with reference to the habitat itself as well as to the areas immediately adjacent. The developed fuzzy models are innovative, compared to the current ecological studies, and examine landscape metrics as well as the impact of human activities.The case study is the “Val Basento-Ferrandina Scalo” Site of Community Importance, Ferrandina-SCI (Basilicata Region, Southern Italy). The results allowed us to build a rank of the habitats based on their intrinsic and integrated ecological vulnerability. Moreover, the results show that, in the Ferrandina-SCI, the most important source of concern is not human activities, but rather the inherent risk of ecological fragility caused by geographical and landscape features of the different patches of habitats themselves.This model aims to be a tool for decision support in sustainable landscape management. It is easy to use and to apply on other regions, although it should always be accompanied by a sensitivity analysis to reduce the subjectivity.     

An analytical study of the factors that influence COVID-19 spread

The outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to constitute an international public health emergency. Seasonality is a long-recognized attribute of many viral infections of humans. Nevertheless, the relationship between environmental factors and the spread of infection, particularly for person-to-person communicable diseases, remains poorly understood. This study explores the relationship between environmental factors and the incidence of COVID-19 in 188 countries with reported COVID-19 cases as of April 13, 2020. Here we show that COVID-19 growth rates peaked in temperate zones in the Northern Hemisphere during the outbreak period, while they were lower in tropical zones. The relationships between COVID-19 and environmental factors were resistant to the potentially confounding effects of air pollution, sea level, and population. To prove the effect of those factors, study, and analysis of the prevalence of COVID-19 in Italy, Spain, and China was undertaken. A fuzzy logic system was designed to predict the effects of that variables on the rate of viral spread of COVID-19.     

Detection of Breast Cancer Based on Fuzzy Frequent Itemsets Mining

Background: Breast cancer, a type of malignant tumor, affects women more than men. About one third of women with breast cancer die of this disease. Hence, it is imperative to find a tool for the proper identification and early treatment of breast cancer. Unlike the conventional data mining algorithms, fuzzy logic based approaches help in the mining of association rules from quantitative transactions.Methods: In this study a novel fuzzy methodology IFFP (Improved Fuzzy Frequent Pattern Mining), based on a fuzzy association rule mining for biological knowledge extraction, is introduced to analyze the dataset in order to find the core factors that cause breast cancer. This method consists of two phases. During the first phase, fuzzy frequent itemsets are mined using the proposed algorithm IFFP. Fuzzy association rules are formed during the second phase, indicating whether a person belongs to benign or malignant. This algorithm is applied on WBCD (Wisconsin Breast Cancer Database) to detect the presence of breast cancer.Results: It is determined that the factor, Mitoses has low range of values on both malignant and benign and hence it does not contribute to the detection of breast cancer. On the other hand, the high range of Bare Nuclei shows more chances for the presence of breast cancer.Conclusion: Experimental evaluations on real datasets show that our proposed method outperforms recently proposed state-of-the-art algorithms in terms of runtime and memory usage.     

A proposal of a fuzzy rule-based system for the analysis of health and health environments in Brazil

A challenging activity in the promotion of sustainable development is to synthesise indicators that can support decision-making. In developing countries such as Brazil, the use of information in support of the health and health-related environment of humans needs improvement. This paper presents a proposal for a system that can evaluate human health and urban environment sanitation in an integrated manner. The indicators selected for human health were child mortality rate, mortality rate due to acute diarrhoea for all ages and 1–4-year-old mortality rate due to acute respiratory tract infections. Environmental sanitation has been represented by indicators of sanitation coverage, such as sewerage. The paper describes the design of a fuzzy linguistic model that synthesises these indicators. The designed fuzzy rule-based system has proved to be a useful tool to integrate information and assist in the public planning of interrelated areas.     

Rule extraction in gene–disease relationship discovery

Background

Biomedical data available to researchers and clinicians have increased dramatically over the past years because of the exponential growth of knowledge in medical biology. It is difficult for curators to go through all of the unstructured documents so as to curate the information to the database. Associating genes with diseases is important because it is a fundamental challenge in human health with applications to understanding disease properties and developing new techniques for prevention, diagnosis and therapy.

Methods

Our study uses the automatic rule-learning approach to gene–disease relationship extraction. We first prepare the experimental corpus from MEDLINE and OMIM. A parser is applied to produce some grammatical information. We then learn all possible rules that discriminate relevant from irrelevant sentences. After that, we compute the scores of the learned rules in order to select rules of interest. As a result, a set of rules is generated.

Results

We produce the learned rules automatically from the 1000 positive and 1000 negative sentences. The test set includes 400 sentences composed of 200 positives and 200 negatives. Precision, recall and F-score served as our evaluation metrics. The results reveal that the maximal precision rate is 77.8% and the maximal recall rate is 63.5%. The maximal F-score is 66.9% where the precision rate is 70.6% and the recall rate is 63.5%.

Conclusions

We employ the rule-learning approach to extract gene–disease relationships. Our main contributions are to build rules automatically and to support a more complete set of rules than a manually generated one. The experiments show exhilarating results and some improving efforts will be made in the future.     

The computationalist reformulation of the mind-body problem

Computationalism, or digital mechanism, or simply mechanism, is a hypothesis in the cognitive science according to which we can be emulated by a computer without changing our private subjective feeling. We provide a weaker form of that hypothesis, weaker than the one commonly referred to in the (vast) literature and show how to recast the mind-body problem in that setting.     

L.S. Vygotsky and the Theater

The article presents the analysis of L.S. Vygotsky's works dedicated to the theater arts and is organized according Vygotsky's different life and work stages. Meanwhile special attention is paid to the Gomel period during which a large number of reviews were written by Vygotsky and published in “Nash ponedel'nik” and “Polesskaia pravda” newspapers. Biographical facts are widely used in this analysis and help to clarify Vygotsky's interest in art. It is shown that even at the beginning of his oeuvre, he was interested not only in a range of problems in art, but also psychological problems related to art perception and creativeness. Vygotsky's usage of structural concept ideas about the peculiar properties of literary text composition are also explored. Vygotsky analyzes the socio-psychological mechanisms of theatrical art effect. Furthermore, those areas which are widely used by Vygotsky in determining the characteristics of cast reincarnation are examined. Special emphasis is placed on the different elements of the actor techniques (speech, movement, emotional expression, acting personality and etc.). Materials are widely used in this study and help identify the socio-cultural context that defined Vygotsky's values at different stages of his work, related to his drama criticism and his formation as a professional psychologist.