Structural Decomposition Analysis of Raw Material Consumption

The aim of this article is to quantify the drivers for the changes in raw material consumption (domestic material consumption expressed in the form of all materials extracted and used in the production phase) in terms of technology, which refers to the concept of sustainable production; the product structure of final demand, which refers to the concept of sustainable consumption; and the volume of final demand, which is related to economic growth. We also aim to determine to what extent the technological development and a shift in product structure of the final demand compensate for the growth in final consumption volume. Therefore, we apply structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to the change in raw material consumption (RMC) of the Czech Republic between 2000 and 2007. To present the study in a broader context, we also show other material flow indicators for the Czech Republic for 2000 and 2007. Our findings of SDA show that final demand structure has a very limited effect on the change in material flows. The rapid change in final demand volume was not compensated for crude oil, metal ores, construction materials, food crops, and timber. For the material category of non‐iron metal ores, even the change in technology contributes to an increase in material flows. The largest relative increases are reported for non‐iron metal ores (38%) and construction materials (30%). The main changes in material flows related to the Czech Republic are driven by exports and enabled by imports, the main source of these increased material flows. This emphasizes the increasing role of international trade.     

An Extreme Value Analysis of Pollutant Concentrations in Surface Soils Due to Atmospheric Deposition

Risk assessments often rely on deterministic models using long-term averages or “steady-state” values of input variables. Such models do not provide the information needed to estimate acute exposures. This study uses extreme value theory to examine the frequency and magnitude of daily pollutant concentrations in surface soils predicted at six U.S. locations. Concentrations are predicted using a deposition-leaching model and 50 years of historical precipitation data. A stochastic model also is used to generate 1000 years of precipitation data as modeling inputs for each location. The annual maximum concentrations at each site are fitted to a Gumbel type I distribution to estimate occurrence probability. For soluble pollutants, the predicted concentration varied substantially with precipitation, and the maximum daily concentrations exceeded annual averages by 4 to 8 times. Observed and synthetic precipitation data produced similar results at most study locations, though the synthetic data provided a slightly better fit to the Gumbel type I distribution. The precipitation model allows the generation of representative precipitation data that extend limited historical records. The extreme value analysis facilitates the evaluation of maximum pollutant concentrations, return periods, and other statistics that are important in evaluating acute exposures.     

The unpredictability of favourability: condition assessment and protected areas in England

The probability that protected areas will deliver their potential for maintaining or enhancing biodiversity is likely to be maximised if they are appropriately and effectively managed. As a result, governments and conservation agencies are devoting much attention to the management of protected areas. In the U.K., the demand for performance accountability has resulted in Public Service Agreements (PSA) that set out targets for government departments to deliver results in return for investments being made. One such target for England is to ensure that all nationally important wildlife sites are in favourable condition by 2010. Here, we tested the hypothesis, of potential strategic importance, that the ecological condition of these sites is predictable from relationships with a range of physical, environmental and demographic variables. We used binary logistic regression to investigate these relationships, using the results of English Nature’s 1997–2003 condition assessment exercise. Generally, sites in unfavourable condition tend to be larger in area, located at higher elevations, but with higher human population density and are more spatially isolated from units of the same habitat. However, despite the range of different parameters included in our models, the extent to which the condition of any given site could be predicted was low. Our results have implications for the delivery of PSA targets, funding allocation, and the location of new protected areas.     

Stem-like intestinal Th17 cells give rise to pathogenic effector T cells during autoimmunity

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Flood Risk Analysis Based on Information Diffusion Theory

Due to the fact that the flood data series of small drainage basins is relatively short, available data are often not sufficient for flood risk analysis. This presents the problem of risk analysis using very small data samples. One method that can be applied is to regard the available small samples as fuzzy information and optimize them using information diffusion technology to yield analytical results with greater reliability. In this article a risk analysis method based on information diffusion theory is applied to create a new flood risk analysis model. Application of the model is illustrated taking the Jinhuajiang and Qujiang drainage basins as examples. This is a new attempt at applying information diffusion theory in flood risk analysis. Computations based on this analytical flood risk model can yield an estimated flood damage value that is relatively accurate. This study indicates that the aforementioned model exhibits fairly stable analytical results, even when using a small set of sample data. The results also indicate that information diffusion technology is highly capable of extracting useful information and therefore improves system recognition accuracy. This method can be easily applied and the analytical results produced are easy to understand. Results are accurate enough to act as a guide in disaster situations.     

In Pursuit of Safety: One-Hundred Years of Toxicological Risk Assessment

The publication in 1962 of Rachel Carson's Silent Spring marks the mid-point in a century that saw, in its first half, the emergence of public health concerns related to human exposures to chemicals, and, in its second half, the emergence of public policies to deal with those concerns. Those policies made it imperative that the scientific community come to grips with the problem of identifying exposure levels not likely to cause harm. This problem was not significantly discussed within the scientific community until the 1950s, and well-described methods for practical solutions to it did not appear until the 1970s. An important report from the National Academy of Sciences, published in 1983 (Risk Assessment in the Federal Government), provided an analysis of these emerging methods, and recommended a useful framework for the assessment and management of risk. This framework remains central to public health and regulatory decision-making. A high-level perspective is offered on events leading to and following the 1983 report. The article describes early thinking about chemical toxicity and the scientific path that thinking followed through the 20th century, and to the present.     

Entomofauna resource distribution associated with pig cadavers in Bogotá DC

A cadaver represents a temporal energy‐loaded resource, which provides arthropods with food, protection and a place in which to find a mate. Insects are usually the first organisms to discover and colonize a cadaver; as decomposition progresses, insects colonize cadavers in a predictable sequence. This work aimed to establish cadaverous entomofauna relationships with regard to stages of decomposition and environmental conditions using multiple correspondence analysis and thereby to identify the way in which insects distribute a perishable and changing resource. Entomofauna were thus collected in a semi‐rural area near Bogotá from the cadavers of three pigs (Sus scrofa L.) which had been shot. Environmental variables were recorded for each sampling. Multiple correspondence analyses were carried out for adult forms belonging to Diptera and Coleoptera families and stages of decomposition, and for Diptera and Coleoptera adult forms and environmental conditions. Stages of decomposition were a primary determining factor for structuring four guilds of entomofauna. However, environmental conditions influenced insect activity and were therefore a relevant factor in the structure of the entomofauna community. The results showed that the insects' distribution of available resources was related to changes in the stage of decomposition.     

Sexual dimorphism in the pyrgomorphid grasshopper Phymateus morbillosus: from wing morphometry and flight behaviour to flight physiology and endocrinology

Abstract In the field, adult males of the grasshopper Phymateus morbillosus are able to fly for up to 1 min and cover up to c. 100 m, whereas females, although fully winged, are apparently unable to get airborne. Morphometric data indicate that the males are lighter, have longer wings, a higher ratio of flight muscles to body mass, and a lower wing load value than females. It was investigated whether this inability of females to fly is related to fuel storage, flight muscle enzymatic design and/or the presence and quantitative capacity of the endocrine system to mobilize fuels. In both sexes, readily available potential energy substrates are present in the haemolymph in similar concentrations, and the amount of glycogen in flight muscles and fat bodies does not differ significantly between males and females. Mass-specific activities of the enzymes GAPDH (glycolysis), HOAD (fatty acid oxidation) and MDH (citric acid cycle) in flight muscles are significantly lower in females compared with males, and mitochondria are less abundant in the flight muscles of females. There is no significant difference between the ability of the two sexes to oxidize various important substrates. Both sexes contain three adipokinetic peptides in their corpora cardiaca; the amount of each peptide in female grasshoppers is higher than in males.
Thus, despite some differences listed above, both sexes appear to have sufficient substrates and the necessary endocrine complement to engage in flight. It seems more likely, from the morphometric data above, that the chief reason for flightlessness is that P. morbillosus females cannot produce sufficient lift for flight; alternatively, the neuronal functioning associated with the flight muscles may be impaired in females.