Evolutionary rescue by beneficial mutations in environments that change in space and time

A factor that may limit the ability of many populations to adapt to changing conditions is the rate at which beneficial mutations can become established. We study the probability that mutations become established in changing environments by extending the classic theory for branching processes. When environments change in time, under quite general conditions, the establishment probability is approximately twice the ‘effective selection coefficient’, whose value is an average that gives most weight to a mutant''s fitness in the generations immediately after it appears. When fitness varies along a gradient in a continuous habitat, increased dispersal generally decreases the chance a mutation establishes because mutations move out of areas where they are most adapted. When there is a patch of favourable habitat that moves in time, there is a maximum speed of movement above which mutations cannot become established, regardless of when and where they first appear. This critical speed limit, which is proportional to the mutation''s maximum selective advantage, represents an absolute constraint on the potential of locally adapted mutations to contribute to evolutionary rescue.     

Habitat selection in rock pool corixids: the effect of local density on dispersal

The corixid species breeding in temporary rock pools of Baltic archipelago live in a highly fragmented and unpredictable habitat. Shallow rock pools can dry out and be refilled repeatedly during a summer causing high mortality of immatures. In deeper pools, young nymphs face intense competition by older stages including cannibalism. The adult corixids move frequently between rock pools and are thus able to use currently available habitat for reproduction. In this dispersal behaviour, the ability to assess the local population density and hence select the more suitable low density patches would be advantageous. We studied the effect of local population density on the frequency of dispersive flights of Arctocorisa carinata (Sahlberg) and Callicorixa producta (Reuter) experimentally, using rock pools from which nymphs of both species were removed. The dispersal rates of marked C. producta adults were significantly lower from experimental rock pools than from normal density controls, leading to a concentration of C. producta adults in the experimental rock pools. Indications of immigration rate differences between the experimental and control pools were also observed. No clear differences were found in the superior competitor A. carinata.     

Plant intraspecific functional trait variation is related to within‐habitat heterogeneity and genetic diversity in Trifolium montanum L.

Intraspecific trait variation (ITV), based on available genetic diversity, is one of the major means plant populations can respond to environmental variability. The study of functional trait variation and diversity has become popular in ecological research, for example, as a proxy for plant performance influencing fitness. Up to now, it is unclear which aspects of intraspecific functional trait variation (iFD_CV) can be attributed to the environment or genetics under natural conditions. Here, we examined 260 individuals from 13 locations of the rare (semi‐)dry calcareous grassland species Trifolium montanum L. in terms of iFD_CV, within‐habitat heterogeneity, and genetic diversity. The iFD_CV was assessed by measuring functional traits (releasing height, biomass, leaf area, specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, F_v/F_m, performance index, stomatal pore surface, and stomatal pore area index). Abiotic within‐habitat heterogeneity was derived from altitude, slope exposure, slope, leaf area index, soil depth, and further soil factors. Based on microsatellites, we calculated expected heterozygosity (H_e) because it best‐explained, among other indices, iFD_CV. We performed multiple linear regression models quantifying relationships among iFD_CV, abiotic within‐habitat heterogeneity and genetic diversity, and also between separate functional traits and abiotic within‐habitat heterogeneity or genetic diversity. We found that abiotic within‐habitat heterogeneity influenced iFD_CV twice as strong compared to genetic diversity. Both aspects together explained 77% of variation in iFD_CV ( = .77, F_{2, 10} = 21.66, p < .001). The majority of functional traits (releasing height, biomass, specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, F_v/F_m, and performance index) were related to abiotic habitat conditions indicating responses to environmental heterogeneity. In contrast, only morphology‐related functional traits (releasing height, biomass, and leaf area) were related to genetics. Our results suggest that both within‐habitat heterogeneity and genetic diversity affect iFD_CV and are thus crucial to consider when aiming to understand or predict changes of plant species performance under changing environmental conditions.     

An Extreme Value Analysis of Pollutant Concentrations in Surface Soils Due to Atmospheric Deposition

Risk assessments often rely on deterministic models using long-term averages or “steady-state” values of input variables. Such models do not provide the information needed to estimate acute exposures. This study uses extreme value theory to examine the frequency and magnitude of daily pollutant concentrations in surface soils predicted at six U.S. locations. Concentrations are predicted using a deposition-leaching model and 50 years of historical precipitation data. A stochastic model also is used to generate 1000 years of precipitation data as modeling inputs for each location. The annual maximum concentrations at each site are fitted to a Gumbel type I distribution to estimate occurrence probability. For soluble pollutants, the predicted concentration varied substantially with precipitation, and the maximum daily concentrations exceeded annual averages by 4 to 8 times. Observed and synthetic precipitation data produced similar results at most study locations, though the synthetic data provided a slightly better fit to the Gumbel type I distribution. The precipitation model allows the generation of representative precipitation data that extend limited historical records. The extreme value analysis facilitates the evaluation of maximum pollutant concentrations, return periods, and other statistics that are important in evaluating acute exposures.     

Local grassland restoration affects insect communities

1. It is hypothesised that ecological restoration in grasslands can induce an alternative stable state shift in vegetation. The change in vegetation influences insect community assemblages and allows for greater functional redundancy in pollination and refuge for native insect species. 2. Insect community assemblages at eight coastal California grassland sites were evaluated. Half of these sites had undergone restoration through active revegetation of native grassland flora and half were non‐restored. Insects were collected from Lupinus bicolor (Fabaceae) within 2 × 2‐m² plots in spring 2017. Lupinus bicolor is a common native species that is used in California restoration projects, and home and state landscaping projects. 3. Ordination demonstrated that insect community assemblages were different between restored and non‐restored sites. These differences were seen in insect functional groups as well as taxa‐specific differences and were found to be driven by environmental characteristics such as non‐native forb cover. 4. Functional redundancy of herbivores decreased at restored sites, while pollinators became more redundant compared with non‐restored sites. The assemblages of the common species found at restoration sites contained more native insects than those found at non‐restored sites, including species such as Bombus vosnesenskii. 5. Local grassland restoration has the potential to induce an alternative stable state change and affect insect community assemblages. Additionally, it was found that grassland restoration can be a potential conservation tool to provide refugia for bumblebees (Bombus), but additional studies are required to fully understand its broader applicability.     

Intraspecific genetic variation of a Fagus sylvatica population in a temperate forest derived from airborne imaging spectroscopy time series

1. The growing pace of environmental change has increased the need for large‐scale monitoring of biodiversity. Declining intraspecific genetic variation is likely a critical factor in biodiversity loss, but is especially difficult to monitor: assessments of genetic variation are commonly based on measuring allele pools, which requires sampling of individuals and extensive sample processing, limiting spatial coverage. Alternatively, imaging spectroscopy data from remote platforms may hold the potential to reveal genetic structure of populations. In this study, we investigated how differences detected in an airborne imaging spectroscopy time series correspond to genetic variation within a population of Fagus sylvatica under natural conditions.
2. We used multi‐annual APEX (Airborne Prism Experiment) imaging spectrometer data from a temperate forest located in the Swiss midlands (Laegern, 47°28'N, 8°21'E), along with microsatellite data from F. sylvatica individuals collected at the site. We identified variation in foliar reflectance independent of annual and seasonal changes which we hypothesize is more likely to correspond to stable genetic differences. We established a direct connection between the spectroscopy and genetics data by using partial least squares (PLS) regression to predict the probability of belonging to a genetic cluster from spectral data.
3. We achieved the best genetic structure prediction by using derivatives of reflectance and a subset of wavebands rather than full‐analyzed spectra. Our model indicates that spectral regions related to leaf water content, phenols, pigments, and wax composition contribute most to the ability of this approach to predict genetic structure of F. sylvatica population in natural conditions.
4. This study advances the use of airborne imaging spectroscopy to assess tree genetic diversity at canopy level under natural conditions, which could overcome current spatiotemporal limitations on monitoring, understanding, and preventing genetic biodiversity loss imposed by requirements for extensive in situ sampling.

     

A Comparison of Bone Mineral Density and Its Predictors in HIV-Infected and HIV-Uninfected Older Men

ObjectiveBone health in older individuals with HIV infection has not been well studied. This study aimed to compare bone mineral density (BMD), trabecular bone score (TBS), and bone markers between HIV-infected men and age- and body mass index (BMI)-matched HIV-uninfected men aged ≥60 years. We investigated the associations of risk factors related to fracture with BMD, TBS, and bone markers in HIV-infected men.MethodsThis cross-sectional study included 45 HIV-infected men receiving antiretroviral therapy and 42 HIV-uninfected men. Medical history, BMD and TBS measurements, and laboratory tests related to bone health were assessed in all the participants. HIV-related factors known to be associated with bone loss were assessed in the HIV-infected men.ResultsThe mean BMD, TBS, and osteopenia or osteoporosis prevalence were similar among the cases and controls. The HIV-infected men had significantly higher mean N-terminal propeptide of type 1 procollagen and C-terminal cross-linking telopeptide of type I collagen levels. Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis demonstrated that low BMI (lumbar spine, P = .015; femoral neck, P = .018; and total hip, P = .005), high C-terminal cross-linking telopeptide of type I collagen concentration (total hip, P = .042; and TBS, P = .010), and low vitamin D supplementation (TBS, P = .035) were independently associated with low BMD and TBS.ConclusionIn older HIV-infected men with a low fracture risk, the mean BMD and TBS were similar to those of the age- and BMI-matched controls. The mean bone marker levels were higher in the HIV group. Traditional risk factors for fracture, including low BMI, high C-terminal cross-linking telopeptide of type I collagen level, and low vitamin D supplementation, were significant predictors of low BMD and TBS.     

Geography of sexual dimorphism in the tooth size of the red fox Vulpes vulpes (Mammalia, Carnivora)

Geographic variation in sexual dimorphism of tooth size was assessed for the red fox Vulpes vulpes (Linnaeus, 1758) across the whole northern range of the species. Twenty-one measurements of tooth size and skull length were taken from 2849 specimens (1577 males and 1272 females) originating from 12 Nearctic and 25 Palearctic localities. The index of sexual dimorphism was calculated as a quotient of the mean measure of certain characters in males by the respective mean in females ( M _m/ M _f). In the whole range, the males were larger than females and mean dimorphism index of tooth size ranged from 1.01 to 1.06. On average, the tooth measurements in males were 3.6% larger than in females. The highest dimorphism was observed in the canines. Dimorphism of tooth size was higher in the Palearctic than Nearctic. Statistically significant differences between regions were found for lengths of C¹, C₁ and M₁. In the Palearctic, higher values of the dimorphism indices were observed particularly in the southern parts of the Eurasian range of the red fox and in Great Britain. For a few metrical traits, sexual dimorphism indices presented significant relations to some geo-climatic variables. The geographic pattern of size dimorphism in the red fox seems to be shaped by sexual selection, intraspecific and interspecific competition and population density.