A simulation approach for power calculation in large cohort studies based on multistate models

Realistic power calculations for large cohort studies and nested case control studies are essential for successfully answering important and complex research questions in epidemiology and clinical medicine. For this, we provide a methodical framework for general realistic power calculations via simulations that we put into practice by means of an R‐based template. We consider staggered recruitment and individual hazard rates, competing risks, interaction effects, and the misclassification of covariates. The study cohort is assembled with respect to given age‐, gender‐, and community distributions. Nested case‐control analyses with a varying number of controls enable comparisons of power with a full cohort analysis. Time‐to‐event generation under competing risks, including delayed study‐entry times, is realized on the basis of a six‐state Markov model. Incidence rates, prevalence of risk factors and prefixed hazard ratios allow for the assignment of age‐dependent transition rates given in the form of Cox models. These provide the basis for a central simulation‐algorithm, which is used for the generation of sample paths of the underlying time‐inhomogeneous Markov processes. With the inclusion of frailty terms into the Cox models the Markov property is specifically biased. An “individual Markov process given frailty” creates some unobserved heterogeneity between individuals. Different left‐truncation‐ and right‐censoring patterns call for the use of Cox models for data analysis. p‐values are recorded over repeated simulation runs to allow for the desired power calculations. For illustration, we consider scenarios with a “testing” character as well as realistic scenarios. This enables the validation of a correct implementation of theoretical concepts and concrete sample size recommendations against an actual epidemiological background, here given with possible substudy designs within the German National Cohort.     

厚壳贻贝whirlin类贝壳基质蛋白的重组表达与功能分析

贝壳历来是生物工程和材料学研究的重要对象。贝壳中的贝壳基质蛋白质在贝壳的形成与发育过程中具有重要的调控作用。Whirlin类蛋白质(Whirlin-like protein,WLP)是一种从厚壳贻贝(Mytilus coruscus)中鉴定的新型贝壳基质蛋白质。序列分析结果显示,该蛋白质含有PDZ(postsynaptic density/Discs large/Zonula occludens)结构域,而该结构域对贝壳生物矿化的影响目前尚无报道。为深入了解WLP在贝壳形成中对碳酸钙晶体的影响,在序列分析基础上,采用密码子优化结合原核重组表达,获得其重组表达产物后,开展了重组WLP对碳酸钙晶体形貌及晶型的影响研究,结晶速度抑制以及碳酸钙晶体结合分析。分析结果表明,重组WLP能诱导文石型碳酸钙晶体的形貌和方解石型碳酸钙晶体的晶型发生改变;同时重组WLP对碳酸钙晶体具有结合作用,且能抑制碳酸钙晶体的结晶速度。上述结果表明,WLP对贝壳的形成及发育具有重要影响,并可能在贝壳肌棱柱层的形成中发挥了重要作用。     

Induced defenses of loblolly pine, Pinus taeda: potential impact on Dendroctonus frontalis within-tree mortality

Loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) produces an induced defensive hypersensitive response in inner bark colonized by the southern pine beetle, Dendroctonus frontalis Zimm. (Coleoptera: Scolytidae), and its associated fungi. Adult beetles forced to colonize the induced response tissue in a laboratory study constructed galleries that were the same length as adults boring in normal phloem. However, each female laid fewer eggs in the induced tissue. Larval and pupal mortality were also higher in this tissue when compared to surrounding phloem. Beetles colonizing trees in response to pheromone baits constructed less gallery and laid fewer eggs in induced tissue than in surrounding normal phloem. These results suggest that the lesions produced by the induced defense system in conifers may not only contain the growth of fungi inoculated into trees during the attack phase of beetle colonization, but may also affect survival of bark beetle progeny.

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Résumé Une réaction hypersensible de défense a été induite dans les couches profondes de l'écorce de P. taeda colonisée par D. frontalis et le champignon qui lui est associé. Au laboratoire, des adultes, contraints de coloniser les tissus où une réaction hypersensible e été induite, ont foré des galeries de même longueur que celles creusées dans du phloème sain. Cependant les femelles ont pondu moins d'oeufs dans les tissus induits; les mortalités larvaires et nymphales étaient aussi plus fortes dans ce tissu que dans le phloème voisin. Les scolytes, ayant colonisé les arbres après attraction par des pièges à phéromones, forent moins de galeries et pondent moins d'oeufs dans le tissu induit que dans le phloème sain voisin. Ces résultats suggèrent que les lésions, provoquées par le système de défense induit des conifères, peuvent non seulement limiter la croissance du champignon inoculé dans l'arbre au cours de la colonisation des scolytes, mais aussi affecter la survie des descendants dans l'écorce.

     

Mitochondrial phylogeography and population history of pine martens Martes martes compared with polecats Mustela putorius

The flora and fauna of Europe are linked by a common biogeographic history, most recently the Pleistocene glaciations that restricted the range of most species to southern refugial populations. Changes in population size and migration, as well as selection, have all left a signature on the genetic differentiation. Thus, three paradigms of postglacial recolonization have been described, inferred from the patterns of DNA differentiation. Yet some species, especially wide-ranging carnivores, exhibit little population structuring between the proposed refugia, although relatively few have been studied due to the difficulty of obtaining samples. Therefore, we investigated mitochondrial variation in pine martens, Martes martes, in order to understand the extent to which they were affected by glacial cycles, and compared the results with an analysis of sequences from polecats, Mustela putorius. A general lack of ancient lineages, and a mismatch distribution that is consistent with an expanding population, is evidence that the present-day M. martes and Mu. putorius in central and northern Europe colonized from a single European refugium following a recent glaciation. There has also been interspecific mitochondrial introgression between M. martes and the sable M. zibellina in Fennoscandia.     

Dynamics of indole-3-acetic acid and indole-3-ethanol during development and germination of Pinus sylvestris seeds

Indole-3-acetic acid (IAA) and indole-3-ethanol (IEt) were identified in immature seeds of Pinus sylvestris L. by combined gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Indole-3-methanol was tentatively identified using multiple ion monitoring. Anatomical investigations of seeds, as well as measurements of free and alkali-hydrolysable IAA and IEt, were made during seed development and germination. Levels of free IAA and IEt decreased during seed development. In the later stages of seed maturation most IAA and IEt were present in alkali-hydrolysable forms. Bound IAA and bound IEt rapidly decreased during germination, while levels of free IAA and IEt increased dramatically for a short period.     

The effects of ultraviolet-B radiation on loblolly pine. I. Growth, photosynthesis and pigment production in greenhouse-grown seedlings

One-year old loblolly pine ( Pinus taeda L.) seedlings were grown in an unshaded greenhouse for 7 months under 4 levels of ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation simulating stratospheric ozone reductions of 16, 25 and 40% and included a control with no UV-B radiation. Periodic measurements were made of growth and gas exchange characteristics and needle chlorophyll and UV-B-absorbing-compound concentrations. The effectiveness of UV-B radiation on seedling growth and physiology varied with the UV-B irradiance level. Seedlings receiving the lowest supplemental UV-B irradiance showed reductions in growth and photosynthetic capacity after only 1 month of irradiation. These reductions persisted and resulted in lower biomass production, while no increases in UV-B-absorbing compounds in needles were observed. Seedlings receiving UV-B radiation which simulated a 25% stratospheric ozone reduction showed an increase in UV-B-absorbing-compound concentrations after 6 months, which paralleled a recovery in photosynthesis and growth after an initial decrease in these characteristics. The seedlings grown at the highest UV-B irradiance (40% stratospheric ozone reduction) showed a more rapid increase in the concentration of UV-B-absorbing compounds and no effects of UV-B radiation on growth or photosynthetic capacity until after 4 months at this irradiance. Changes in photosynthetic capacity were probably the result of direct effects on light-dependent processes, since no effects were observed on either needle chlorophyll concentrations or stomatal conductance. Further studies are necessary to determine whether these responses persist and accumulate over subsequent years.     

Relation of light and nitrogen source to growth, nitrate reductase and glutamine synthetase activity of jack pine seedlings

Two-month-old jack pine ( Pinus banksiana Lamb.) seedlings were placed in a greenhouse where both nitrogen source and light level were varied. After 4 months, whole seedling biomass, leaf biomass and relative growth rate were greatest in seedlings grown with NH⁺₄/NO/NO⁻₃-N and full light (FL) and least in seedlings grown with NO ⁻₃-N and low light (LL). NO ⁻₃-seedlings grown under full light and NH⁺₄/NO⁻₃-seedlings grown under low light were approximately equal. This indicates that the extra carbon costs of assimilating only NO⁻₃-N were similar to the reduction of carbon fixation resulting from a 50% decrease in photon flux density. Percentage and total nitrogen content of needles were greater in seedlings grown under low light independent of nitrogen fertilization. Percentage and total nitrogen content of roots were higher under low light and lower when fertilized with NO⁻₃.
Nitrate reductase (NR) activity was higher in roots than in needles, while glutamine synthetase (GS) activity was higher in needles than in roots. Low light resulted in decreased NR activity (mg N)⁻¹ in needles, but not in roots. However, no nitrate was detected in the needles in any treatment. GS activity, on the other hand, was greater under low light in both needles and roots. GS activity in needles is most likely involved with the reassimilation rather than the initial assimilation of ammonium. Some implications of these shifts in enzymatic activity for ecological phenomena in forests are discussed.     

Respiration and soluble sugar metabolism in sugar pine embryos

Embroys excised from dormant seeds of sugar pine ( Pinus lambertiana Dougl.) incubated at 25°C (non-dormancy-breaking) or stratified at 5°C (dormancy-breaking) were analyzed to determine temperature effects on the relative activities of respiration and fermentative metabolism, the levels of soluble sugers and the activities of the hydrolytic enzymes, invertase and sucrose synthase, as related to the release of dormancy and germinatio. At 25°C, despite a sharp drop in embryo oxygen uptake after 48 h, a simultaneous decline in acetaldehyde and ethanol concentrations indicated that there was not a shift to fermentative metabolism. The concentrations of soluble sugars showed no treatment effects. Embryo invertase (EC 3.2.1.26) activity changed only slightly at either temperature, while stratification was accompanied by a 4-fold increase in sucrose synthase (EC 2.4.1.13) activity (cleavage direction). Upon transfer of stratified seeds to 25°C, embryo sucrose synthase activity rapidly increased almost 10-fold, with the increase beginning prior to germination, while mvertase activity increased 20-fold, concomitant with germination.