VARIANCE-INDUCED PEAK SHIFTS

The increase in phenotypic variance that occurs in some populations as a result of bottlenecks and founder events can cause a dramatic increase in the probability of a peak shift from one adaptive state to another. Periods of small population size allow drift in the amount of phenotypic variance. Increases in phenotypic variance, coupled with a constant individual fitness function with multiple peaks, can cause the mean fitness landscape to change from bimodal to unimodal, thereby allowing the population's mean phenotype to change deterministically by selection. As the amount of phenotypic variance is returned to an equilibrium state, the multiple peaks reemerge, but the population has moved from one stable state to another. These variance-induced peak shifts allow punctuational evolution from one peak to another at a rate that can be much higher than that predicted by Wright's shifting-balance process alone.     

Conservation and management issues of Prespa National Park

The present article describes the human activities inthe area and their changes and trends, given that thecontemporary nature conservation key issues areclosely related to past and present socio-economic andcultural conditions, both within Prespa itself andoutside of it. The liberation of Prespa, a remote andrather socially isolated borderline area, from Ottoman occupation took place in 1912–13. Recentevents in its environmental history have been forestclearings and human depopulation in the Civil War(1944–49), irrigation system construction in the1960s, its discovery by ornithologists in the late1960s, the high emigration rates of 1960–1980, itsdesignation as a National Park in 1974, thedestructive development works of 1984–86 afterGreeces entry to the EEC and the conversion to intensivebean cultivation in the mid 1980s.The human population of ca 7000 at the start of thiscentury suffered an almost 80% decrease after theCivil War. A resettlement in the mid 1950s increasedthe population by 40% but in the 1970s emigrationreduced it to its previous size of around 1500, stillits present size. The extensive and diverse farmingsystems of previous centuries changed gradually afterthe construction of an irrigation network in the1960s, which twenty years later and along withinternational changes in production and economypatterns, made possible the present day domination ofa bean monoculture within irrigated croplands. Thiswas accompanied by increased energy inputs,mechanisation and the use of chemicals.Intensification of agriculture brought increasedincomes which attracted also livestock keepers,resulting in a 56% decrease in numbers of livestockin 1964–1993. Cattle are presently kept for meatproduction only. They graze on the mountains, and nolonger in the meadows around the lakeshore. A localshorthorn breed accounting for 93% of all cattle in1963 declined to less than 18% in 1993. Fishing aimedmainly at carp and Prespa bleak, continues today as inthe past to be a source of supplementary income.Eighty-six per cent of the – mainly oak and beech –forests are State owned and the rest belong to localmunicipalities. The forest area has not changedessentially in the last 40 years, but forest roadshave expanded. Forests provide mainly fuelwood forlocal needs and small quantities of industrial timber.No specific management is conducted to safeguard theconservation values of the forest, the majority ofwhich consists of even aged coppiced stands withlimited value for wildlife. Manufacturing never playedan important role for the economy of the area. Tourismhas increased in the last 20 years, concentratedmainly in summer and spring. Accommodation in thevillages is not yet satisfactory though it hasimproved enormously in recent years. The NationalParks infrastructure for visitors remains poor.Tourist pressure generally is not yet that high toimpact drastically the social and environmentalfabric. In places, hunting, angling and poaching cannegatively affect the target species. The constructionof the irrigation network in the eastern part of LakeMikri Prespa was the most important change to thelandscape and the habitats of Prespa the last 30years. It resulted in the embankment of free-flowingstreams, drainage of wet meadows and dramaticreduction of trees and hedges. In the last 15 years,the reedbeds, no longer burnt or mowed and assisted byincreased nutrient loadings from agricultural runoff,have expanded landward to occupy formerly open,periodically flooded, areas. The above changes inhabitats and land use have brought an impoverishmentof biodiversity which can be seen in the exterminationor the decrease in the numbers of certain plant andbird species.The problems preventing a better management of theNational Park and the perpetuation of its values areinappropriate legislation, the poor degree ofcoordination of the public services, the lack of botha specific National Park Service in Greece and amanagement authority for the Park and the hostileattitude of local people due to their limitedinformation and involvement. The scenic beauty, thewetlands and a number of rare habitats, the diversityof habitats, flora and fauna, the endemic life forms,the rare mammals and the colonial waterbirds, thelocal architecture and the cultural expressions suchas the Byzantine monuments, are the values of Prespathat must be preserved as a whole. The initialconservation efforts aimed at preserving biodiversitybut later it became apparent that not only are humansan inseparable part of the whole, but additionally,several of their extensive activities have contributedsubstantially to the rich biodiversity of the area.Through the prerequisites of keeping a balance betweenprimary and tertiary sector activities and ofrevitalizing the social fabric, the following are thekey management and conservation issues of today: anunequivocal agreement on the values to be preservedand their limits; the formation of a managementauthority; a new realistic protection and land usezoning; the diversification and extensification of allfarming activities; the restoration of the wet meadowhabitats; the ensuring of a high water level and agood water quality for both lakes through tri-lateralcooperation between Greece, Albania and FYROM; and theestablishment of a permanent environmental monitoringscheme.     

基于地表水与地下水分割校正的漓江流域水供给服务时空格局研究

喀斯特区域水循环过程与其他地区存在显著区别,其水供给服务也具有独特的空间分布特征。然而,目前针对喀斯特地区产水量的时空变化研究较少考虑喀斯特生态系统的特殊性,导致产水量的空间模拟结果存在一定偏差。根据喀斯特地貌形态和地下水补径排泄特征提出了一种产水量分割方法,并基于水量平衡原理建立了地表水与地下水分割校正概念模型。选取喀斯特山区典型区域漓江流域为研究区,通过上述方法校正了InVEST模型产水量模拟结果,从栅格、地貌分区和子流域3个尺度分析了漓江流域2000—2020年产水量校正前与校正后时空分布格局。研究结果表明：(1)漓江流域2000—2020年InVEST模型产水量呈现先减后增再减的趋势,水供给服务空间分布格局为北高南低。产水深度在岩溶区和非岩溶区几乎没有差异,但在岩溶区内部差异明显：裸露型岩溶区产水深度高于覆盖型和埋藏型,峰林平原产水深度高于峰丛洼地。子流域分区平均产水深度排序为漓江上游区>漓江中游区>恭城河区>荔浦河区>漓江下游区。(2)利用地表与地下水分割校正后,水供给服务空间分布格局为四周高于中部,西北部高于东南部。非岩溶区产水深度明显高于岩溶区,埋...     

Can we measure ecological sustainability? Landscape pattern as an indicator for naturalness and land use intensity at regional,national and European level

European landscapes have been shaped over the centuries by processes related to human land use, which are reflected in regionally distinct landscape patterns. Since landscape pattern has been linked to biodiversity and other ecological values of the landscapes, this paper explores landscape pattern as a tool for ecological sustainability assessments at the regional (Austrian Cultural Landscapes), national (Austria) and European (European Union + Norway, Switzerland) level with focus on agricultural landscapes. A set of landscape metrics served as a basis to assess naturalness and geometrisation of Austrian and European landscapes as a proxy for their sustainability. To achieve an accurate spatially explicit assessment, we applied a spatial reference framework consisting in units that are homogeneous in biophysical and socio-economic contexts, adapted the regional approach for its application at European level, and developed relative sustainability thresholds for the landscape metrics. The analyses revealed that several landscape metrics, particularly the “Number of Shape Characterising Points” showed a high correlation with the degree of naturalness. The sustainability map of Austria based on an ordinal regression model revealed well-known problem regions of ecological sustainability. At the European level, the relative deviation from the average pattern showed clearly the simplification processes in the landscapes. However, a better spatial resolution of land cover data would add to the refinement of pattern analysis in regions and therefore the assessment of sustainability. We recommend the combination of information of different scales for the formulation and implementation of sustainability policies.     

芦芽山自然保护区旅游开发与植被环境关系——植被景观的类型及其排序

正确识别旅游活动作用下植被景观的类型及其分布格局,是景区管理者实施生态管理的现实课题。以芦芽山自然保护区为例,利用双向指示种分析（Two．Way Indicator Species Analysis,TWINSPAN）和除趋势对应分析（Detrended Correspondence Analysis,DCA）对此问题进行了研究。结果表明：（1）TWINSPAN将所有样地划分为5个不同等级的植被景观类型区,其结果比较客观地反映出旅游开发与植被景观间的生态关系,指示因子也充分地反映了植被区的人为环境和景观特征。与利用旅游影响系数进行的分类相比,TWINSPAN的结果更为科学合理,明显优于单纯依据一个因子划分的结果。（2）DCA第1轴从左到右旅游影响系数和敏感水平越来越小,信息指数越来越大。DCA第3轴从下而上旅游剔除程度逐渐减小。DCA结果能够识别植被景观类型在空间上分布的规律性,但是这种规律性需要根据生态学知识去加以分析和总结,直观性不强。（3）TWINSPAN结果与DCA结果基本一致。具有良好的可比性。     

Bird sensitivity to disturbance as an indicator of forest patch conditions: An issue in environmental assessments

An Environmental Assessment (EA) is one of the steps within the Environmental Impact Assessment process. Birds are often used in EA to help decision makers evaluate potential human impacts from proposed development activities. A “sensitivity to human disturbance” index, created by Parker III et al. (1996) for all Neotropical species, is commonly considered an ecological indicator. However, this parameter was created subjectively and, for most species, there have been no rigorous field test to validate its effectiveness as such. Therefore, in this study, we aim to: (1) evaluate if, at the local scale, birds from forest patches in a human-modified landscape (HML) may differ in sensitivity from Parker's sensitivity classification; (2) evaluate the effectiveness of the species richness value at each sensitivity level as an ecological indicator; (3) gather information on how often and in which manner Parker's classification has been used in EA. To do so, bird sampling was performed in eight forest patches in a HML over one year. Then, we created a local sensitivity to disturbance using information about threat, endemism, spatial distribution and relative abundance of all species in the study area. We found that 37% of the forest birds showed different local sensitivity levels when compared with Parker's classification. Our results show that only the richness of high-sensitivity species from our local classification fitted the ecological indicator assumptions helping the environmental conditions evaluation of the studied patches. We conclude that species richness of each Parker's bird sensitivity levels do not necessarily perform as an ecological indicator at the local scale, and particularly in HML. Nevertheless, Parker's Neotropical bird sensitivity classification was used in 50% of EA we reviewed. In these, 76% assumed that it was an accurate ecological indicator of the local forest conditions for birds. The lack of clear criteria used in Parker's classification allows diverse interpretations by ornithologists, and there is no agreement about the ecological meaning of each sensitivity level and what environmental conditions each level may indicate of. Therefore, the use of Parker's classification in EA may jeopardize accurate interpretations of proposed anthropogenic impacts. Furthermore, because a bird species’ sensitivity often varies between locations, we argue that Parker's generalized classification of bird sensitivity should not be used as an indicator of forest environmental conditions in EA throughout HMLs in Neotropics. Rather, local bird ecological indices should be explored, otherwise, erroneous predictions of the anthropogenic impacts will continue to be common.     

Energy Landscapes of Protein Aggregation and Conformation Switching in Intrinsically Disordered Proteins

The protein folding problem was apparently solved recently by the advent of a deep learning method for protein structure prediction called AlphaFold. However, this program is not able to make predictions about the protein folding pathways. Moreover, it only treats about half of the human proteome, as the remaining proteins are intrinsically disordered or contain disordered regions. By definition these proteins differ from natively folded proteins and do not adopt a properly folded structure in solution. However these intrinsically disordered proteins (IDPs) also systematically differ in amino acid composition and uniquely often become folded upon binding to an interaction partner. These factors preclude solving IDP structures by current machine-learning methods like AlphaFold, which also cannot solve the protein aggregation problem, since this meta-folding process can give rise to different aggregate sizes and structures. An alternative computational method is provided by molecular dynamics simulations that already successfully explored the energy landscapes of IDP conformational switching and protein aggregation in multiple cases. These energy landscapes are very different from those of ‘simple’ protein folding, where one energy funnel leads to a unique protein structure. Instead, the energy landscapes of IDP conformational switching and protein aggregation feature a number of minima for different competing low-energy structures. In this review, I discuss the characteristics of these multifunneled energy landscapes in detail, illustrated by molecular dynamics simulations that elucidated the underlying conformational transitions and aggregation processes.     

旅游干扰对云丘山景区内植被的影响

选择云丘山景区为研究区域,以该区域的主要植被为研究对象,采用样方法对旅游干扰对云丘山景区内植被的影响进行了研究,共设置了40个乔木样方,并利用TWINSPAN聚类分析以及旅游干扰程度（TDD）对所取样方进行分析。结果表明：TWINSPAN聚类分类将景区内的植物群落划分为5个群系,其中、群系Ⅱ中伴人植物的优势度明显高于其它。干扰程度分析表明,在景区的40个乔木样方中,只有4个样方基本没有受到干扰,有3个样方受到中度干扰,其余的33个样方均为轻度干扰。TWINSPAN聚类分析科学合理地对旅游活动作用下植被景观的类型特征进行了分析。旅游干扰程度（TDD）直观地反映出各个样方所在地植被被干扰的程度,该研究结果可为旅游管理者提供一定的理论依据。     

The interplay between local and landscape scales on the density of pond-dwelling anurans in subtropical grasslands

We investigated the role of local and landscape environmental variables on anurans density classified as habitat specialists and generalists in grassland landscapes, known as South Brazilian grasslands (SBG). In this region, we surveyed 187 ponds distributed over 40 landscape sampling units. For each pond, 31 local environmental variables were measured. Each landscape sampling unit was embedded within a larger regional sampling unit with different landscape properties. For each landscape and regional sampling units, 16 landscape metrics were extracted from a land cover and use map. We recorded 35 species, eleven of which are specialists in the SBG. The specialists were affected by 11 local and 2 landscape environmental variables, while generalists were affected by 14 local and one landscape environmental variable. Thus, specialists and generalists presented different relationships with local and landscape variables, but in general local variables had a greater influence on the density of anurans than the landscape variables. However, the landscape indirectly influenced local variables because higher quality ponds were in landscapes with higher percentages of natural habitat. In conclusion, reproductive sites with higher local quality and located within landscapes with higher percentages of natural grasslands are essential to conserve anurans in this habitat. Effective conservation of such sites would benefit from further studies that assess effects of land use and biotic integrity of ponds, which can help to determine (a) the relative effects of local habitat quality of ponds and (b) the effectiveness of protecting ponds and their local surroundings for anuran conservation in SBG. Abstract in Portuguese is available with online material.