An Extreme Value Analysis of Pollutant Concentrations in Surface Soils Due to Atmospheric Deposition

Risk assessments often rely on deterministic models using long-term averages or “steady-state” values of input variables. Such models do not provide the information needed to estimate acute exposures. This study uses extreme value theory to examine the frequency and magnitude of daily pollutant concentrations in surface soils predicted at six U.S. locations. Concentrations are predicted using a deposition-leaching model and 50 years of historical precipitation data. A stochastic model also is used to generate 1000 years of precipitation data as modeling inputs for each location. The annual maximum concentrations at each site are fitted to a Gumbel type I distribution to estimate occurrence probability. For soluble pollutants, the predicted concentration varied substantially with precipitation, and the maximum daily concentrations exceeded annual averages by 4 to 8 times. Observed and synthetic precipitation data produced similar results at most study locations, though the synthetic data provided a slightly better fit to the Gumbel type I distribution. The precipitation model allows the generation of representative precipitation data that extend limited historical records. The extreme value analysis facilitates the evaluation of maximum pollutant concentrations, return periods, and other statistics that are important in evaluating acute exposures.     

Biogeography of Iberian freshwater fishes revisited: the roles of historical versus contemporary constraints

Aim The question of how much of the shared geographical distribution of biota is due to environmental vs. historical constraints remains unanswered. The aim of this paper is to disentangle the contribution of historical vs. contemporary factors to the distribution of freshwater fish species. In addition, it illustrates how quantifying the contribution of each type of factor improves the classification of biogeographical provinces. Location Iberian Peninsula, south‐western Europe (c. 581,000 km²). Methods We used the most comprehensive data on native fish distributions for the Iberian Peninsula, compiled from Portuguese and Spanish sources on a 20‐km grid‐cell resolution. Overall, 58 species were analysed after being categorized into three groups according to their ability to disperse through saltwater: (1) species strictly intolerant of saltwater (primary species); (2) species partially tolerant of saltwater, making limited incursions into saltwaters (secondary species); and (3) saltwater‐tolerant species that migrate back and forth from sea to freshwaters or have invaded freshwaters recently (peripheral species). Distance‐based multivariate analyses were used to test the role of historical (basin formation) vs. contemporary environmental (climate) conditions in explaining current patterns of native fish assemblage composition. Cluster analyses were performed to explore species co‐occurrence patterns and redefine biogeographical provinces based on the distributions of fishes. Results River basin boundaries were better at segregating species composition for all species groups than contemporary climate variables. This historical signal was especially evident for primary and secondary freshwater fishes. Eleven biogeographical provinces were delineated. Basins flowing to the Atlantic Ocean north of the Tagus Basin and those flowing to the Mediterranean Sea north of the Mijares Basin were the most dissimilar group. Primary and secondary freshwater species had higher province fidelity than peripheral species. Main conclusions The results support the hypothesis that historical factors exert greater constraints on native freshwater fish assemblages in the Iberian Peninsula than do current environmental factors. After examining patterns of assemblage variation across space, as evidenced by the biogeographical provinces, we discuss the likely dispersal and speciation events that underlie these patterns.     

Environment versus dispersal in the assembly of western Amazonian palm communities

Aim It is a central issue in ecology and biogeography to understand what governs community assembly and the maintenance of biodiversity in tropical rain forest ecosystems. A key question is the relative importance of environmental species sorting (niche assembly) and dispersal limitation (dispersal assembly), which we investigate using a large dataset from diverse palm communities. Location Lowland rain forest, western Amazon River Basin, Peru. Methods We inventoried palm communities, registering all palm individuals and recording environmental conditions in 149 transects of 5 m × 500 m. We used ordination, Mantel tests and indicator species analysis (ISA) to assess compositional patterns, species responses to geographical location and environmental factors. Mantel tests were used to assess the relative importance of geographical distance (as a proxy for dispersal limitation) and environmental differences as possible drivers of dissimilarity in palm species composition. We repeated the Mantel tests for subsets of species that differ in traits of likely importance for habitat specialization and dispersal (height and range size). Results We found a strong relationship between compositional dissimilarity and environmental distance and a weaker but also significant relationship between compositional dissimilarity and geographical distance. Consistent with expectations, relationships with environmental and geographical distance were stronger for understorey species than for canopy species. Geographical distance had a higher correlation with compositional dissimilarity for small‐ranged species compared with large‐ranged species, whereas the opposite was true for environmental distance. The main environmental correlates were inundation and soil nutrient levels. Main conclusions The assembly of palm communities in the western Amazon appears to be driven primarily by species sorting according to hydrology and soil, but with dispersal limitation also playing an important role. The importance of environmental characteristics and geographical distance varies depending on plant height and geographical range size in agreement with functional predictions, increasing our confidence in the inferred assembly mechanisms.     

Fire history of an isolated subalpine mountain range of the Intermountain Region,United States

Fire has historically been an important ecological component of forests in the Intermountain Region of the northwestern United States. This study is set in a small biogeographically disjunct mountain range. Our research objectives were to (1) investigate the historical frequency, severity, size, and spatial pattern of fire; (2) determine if and how fire regimes have changed since Euro-American settlement; and (3) compare how fire regimes of a small isolated range compare to nearby, but considerably larger, mountain agglomerations. Our findings suggest that this mountain range has historically supported fires typified by small size and high frequency, resulting in a high degree of spatial pattern complexity compared to mountain agglomerations. We also found disparity in size and burn severity solely within the study area based on the bisecting Continental Divide. Since the advent of Euro-American settlement in the 1870s, fire frequency and sizes of individual fires in the West Big Hole Range have significantly decreased resulting in an estimated 87% reduction in area burned. We discuss potential relationships of mountain range isolation and fire regimes in the Intermountain Region. Furthermore, we suggest that the relative small size of this mountain range predisposes it to greater anthropogenic effects upon fire occurrence.