Some population consequences of variation in preference among individual predators

A number of foraging studies have demonstrated that populations of predators rarely consist of individuals with identical preferences for particular types of prey. Variation among predators can lead to frequency-dependent changes in population preference, because those predators mat prefer the rarer type of prey generally have the greatest influence on population preference. In this study we develop a series of theoretical models which demonstrate how anti-apostatic selection (i.e. selection against the rare form) can arise out of (a) bimodal and (b) normal variation in preference among individuals of the same species. We show that population level anti-apostatic selection can occur even when individual predators show pro-apostatic selection (i.e. selection against the common form). Furthermore, patterns of population prey selection that arise out of variation in preference can potentially be pro-apostatic over one range of relative densities and anti-apostatic over another range of relative densities. Finally, we examine a case study involving predation by female waterboatmen Notonecta glauca and show that the variation in preference in this species is large enough to generate higher anti-apostatic selection than would be expected from the diet selected by the average individual.     

EFFECTIVE POPULATION SIZE IN A CONTINUOUSLY DISTRIBUTED POPULATION

An individual-based simulation model was created to examine genetic variability, time until fixation and spatial genetic structure in a continuously distributed population. Previous mathematical models for continuously distributed populations have the difficulty that the assumption of independent reproduction and independent dispersal of offspring cause clumped spatial distribution and thus violate an assumption of random spatial distribution. In this study, this problem is avoided by considering the dispersal behavior of offspring. The simulation results showed that the inbreeding effective population size estimated by the rate of decrease of heterozygosity during the first 15 generations corresponds to the neighborhood size calculated by the standard deviation of the dispersal distance (σ_T). This inbreeding effective population size does not greatly change with the area of simulation when the densities and σ_T are the same. However, the inbreeding effective population size estimated by heterozygosity using the first 500 generations is larger than the neighborhood size calculated by the dispersal distance and increases with the area of simulation with the same densities. The variance effective population size, estimated by time until fixation of alleles, increases with dispersal distance (σ_T) and with the area of simulation given the same densities. The inbreeding effective population size and variance effective population size were smaller than the actual population size unless σ_T is sufficiently large (2 σ_T > approximate L/2, where L is a side of the simulation square).     

Negative density-dependent dispersal emerges from the joint evolution of density- and body condition-dependent dispersal strategies

Empirical studies have documented both positive and negative density-dependent dispersal, yet most theoretical models predict positive density dependence as a mechanism to avoid competition. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain the occurrence of negative density-dependent dispersal, but few of these have been formally modeled. Here, we developed an individual-based model of the evolution of density-dependent dispersal. This model is novel in that it considers the effects of density on dispersal directly, and indirectly through effects on individual condition. Body condition is determined mechanistically, by having juveniles compete for resources in their natal patch. We found that the evolved dispersal strategy was a steep, increasing function of both density and condition. Interestingly, although populations evolved a positive density-dependent dispersal strategy, the simulated metapopulations exhibited negative density-dependent dispersal. This occurred because of the negative relationship between density and body condition: high density sites produced low-condition individuals that lacked the resources required for dispersal. Our model, therefore, generates the novel hypothesis that observed negative density-dependent dispersal can occur when high density limits the ability of organisms to disperse. We suggest that future studies consider how phenotype is linked to the environment when investigating the evolution of dispersal.     

Disturbance does not have a significant impact on waders in an estuary close to conurbations: importance of overlap between birds and people in time and space

Disturbance of wildlife is a potential cause of conservation concern, not least to overwintering waders Charadrii inhabiting estuaries close to conurbations where human recreational and economic activities are often concentrated. Disturbance from people on and alongside intertidal foraging areas could make it more difficult for birds to survive until spring in good condition by reducing the time available for foraging, increasing energy requirements and displacing birds to poorer foraging areas. We adopted a two-part approach to testing whether such significant impacts occurred in a Special Protection Area where disturbance risk was high because of its small size and close proximity to conurbations. In part one, we recorded over the whole estuary during stages of the tidal cycle when part or all of the intertidal zone was exposed and so accessible to waders (i.e. on receding, low and advancing tides): (1) the numbers and activities of people on the intertidal flats and on the adjacent land in those places where people were visible to waders in the intertidal zone and (2) the numbers of waders present and disturbed into flight, the flight distance and flight duration in the ‘overlap’ areas where people did disturb waders. People occurred on < 25% of the 938 ha of intertidal flats, but most waders foraged on mudflats, whereas most people were on sandflats. People on land were visible to foraging waders along < 35% of the 16.5 km of shoreline. Waders and people were therefore substantially separated in space. Within overlap areas, people and waders were often frequently separated in time: for example, people on land mostly disturbed waders when only the upper shore levels were exposed. The average overwintering wader spent < 0.1% of its foraging time during daylight flying away from people and the additional energy expenditure was equivalent to < 0.02% of its daily requirements. The comparison made in part two between our study area and two comparable estuaries showed that the number of visits each day to the overlap areas would need to be 29 or 43 times greater for disturbance to have lowered the birds’ body condition and winter survival. Both parts of the study therefore suggested strongly that the amount of disturbance was too trivial to have a significant impact on waders. It is concluded that: (1) to properly assess disturbance risk to waders, both extensive and intensive observations must be made on the behaviour of people and birds to quantify the extent to which they overlap in space and time, and (2) it should not be assumed that an estuary's close proximity to conurbations, and the presence of large numbers of people in the vicinity of the SPA, necessarily implies a significant disturbance risk to waders.     

Variation in breeding phenology provides insights into drivers of long-term population change in harbour seals

Phenological trends provide important indicators of environmental change and population dynamics. However, the use of untested population-level measures can lead to incorrect conclusions about phenological trends, particularly when changes in population structure or density are ignored. We used individual-based estimates of birth date and lactation duration of harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) to investigate energetic consequences of changes in pupping phenology. Using generalized linear mixed models, we first demonstrate annual variation in pupping phenology. Second, we show a negative relationship between lactation duration and the timing of pupping, indicating that females who pup early nurse their pups longer, thereby highlighting lactation duration as a useful proxy of female condition and resource availability. Third, individual-based data were used to derive a population-level proxy that demonstrated an advance in pupping date over the last 25 years, co-incident with a reduction in population abundance that resulted from fisheries-related shootings. These findings demonstrate that phenological studies examining the impacts of climate change on mammal populations must carefully control for changes in population density and highlight how joint investigations of phenological and demographic change provide insights into the drivers of population declines.     

Matching habitat choice promotes species persistence under climate change

Species may survive under contemporary climate change by either shifting their range or adapting locally to the warmer conditions. Theoretical and empirical studies recently underlined that dispersal, the central mechanism behind these responses, may depend on the match between an individuals’ phenotype and local environment. Such matching habitat choice is expected to induce an adaptive gene flow, but it now remains to be studied whether this local process could promote species’ responses to climate change. Here, we investigate this by developing an individual‐based model including either random dispersal or temperature‐dependent matching habitat choice. We monitored population composition and distribution through space and time under climate change. Relative to random dispersal, matching habitat choice induced an adaptive gene flow that lessened spatial range loss during climate warming by improving populations’ viability within the range (i.e. limiting range fragmentation) and by facilitating colonization of new habitats at the cold margin. The model even predicted range contraction under random dispersal but range expansion under optimal matching habitat choice. These benefits of matching habitat choice for population persistence mostly resulted from adaptive immigration decision and were greater for populations with larger dispersal distance and higher emigration probability. We also found that environmental stochasticity resulted in suboptimal matching habitat choice, decreasing the benefits of this dispersal mode under climate change. However population persistence was still better under suboptimal matching habitat choice than under random dispersal. Our results highlight the urgent need to implement more realistic mechanisms of dispersal such as matching habitat choice into models predicting the impacts of ongoing climate change on biodiversity.     

NetLogoR: a package to build and run spatially explicit agent‐based models in R

NetLogoR is an R package to build and run spatially explicit agent‐based models (SE‐ABMs) using the R language. SE‐ABMs are models that simulate the fate of entities at the individual level within a spatial context and where patterns emerge at the population level. NetLogoR follows the same framework as the NetLogo software (Wilensky 1999). Rather than a call function to use the NetLogo software, NetLogoR is a translation into the R language of the structure and functions of NetLogo. Models built with NetLogoR are written in R language and are run on the R platform; no other software or language has to be involved. NetLogoR provides new R classes to define model agent objects and functions to implement spatially explicit agent‐based models in the R environment. Users of this package benefit from the fast and easy coding provided by the highly developed NetLogo framework, coupled with the versatility, power and massive resources of the R language.     

Modelling individual plant growth at a variable mean density or at a specific spatial setting

Neighbouring plants generally compete for the limiting resources in order to grow and reproduce. Some resources, e.g., sun light, may be monopolised by the larger plants and this may lead to asymmetric competition where a plant, which is twice as large, grows more than twice as fast. A previously published individual-based Richards growth model that describes the asymmetric growth of individual plants is here generalised with respect to a variable mean plant density and an explicit spatial setting.     

A simulation study of the effects of architectural constraints and resource translocation on population structure and competition in clonal plants

(1) Spatially explicit simulation of clonal plant growth is used to determine how ramet-level traits affect ramet density, spatial pattern of ramets and competitive ability of a clonal plant. The simulation model used combines elements of (i) an individual-based model of plant interactions, (ii) an architectural model of clonal plant growth, and (iii) a model of resource translocation within a set of physiologically integrated plant individuals. (2) The effects of two groups of parameters were studied: growth and resource acquisition parameters (resource accumulation, density-dependence of resource accumulation, resource translocation between ramets) and architectural rules (branching angle and probability of branching, internode length). The model was parameterised by values approximating those of clonally growing grasses as closely as possible. The basic parameter values were chosen from a short-turf grassland. Sensitivity analysis was carried out on relevant parameters around three basic points in the parameter space. Both single-species and two-species systems were studied. (3) It is shown that increasing resource acquisition and growth parameters increase ramet density, genet number and competitive ability. Translocation parameters and architectural parameters modify the effects of resource acquisition and growth, but their effect in single-species stands was smaller. (4) The simulations of species with fixed ramet sizes showed that ramet density in single-species stands cannot be used for predicting competitive ability. Increase in resource acquisition and growth parameters was correlated with an increase in equilibrium ramet density and competitive ability. Increasing branching angle, branching probability or internode length lead to an increased competitive ability, but did not affect equilibrium ramet density. Change of architectural parameters could therefore affect competitive ability independently of their effect on the final ramet density. (5) Spatial pattern both in single-species and two-species stands was also highly parameter-dependent. Changes in architectural parameters and in translocation usually lead to pronounced change in the spatial pattern; change in growth and resource acquisition parameters generally had little effect on spatial pattern.     

A mechanistic model for partial preferences

Classic prey optimal foraging model assumes that individual predators are globally omniscient; that is, they have exact knowledge of prey population densities in the environment. This study examines a spatially explicit individual-based model of a one-predator two-prey system where individual predators are assumed to be omniscient only locally, i.e., to know prey population densities only in the range of their perception. Due to local variations in prey numbers, the probability of acceptance of less profitable prey shifts from the zero-one rule to a gradually decreasing function, for which an explicit formula is derived, giving way to partial preferences. A corresponding predator functional response to more profitable prey is shown to have a sigmoid-like form.