Praying for Drought: Persistent Vulnerability and the Politics of Patronage in Ceará, Northeast Brazil

ABSTRACT   The phrase persistent vulnerability reflects the enduring relationship of the rural population in Ceará with a highly variable climate. Persistence underscores the historical and unyielding nature of this vulnerability. Yet contrary to once-catastrophic rates of mortality etched in a public consciousness, no one dies from severe droughts and few people flee them as in the past. Government relief and social transfers have become the institutionalized form of adaptation, giving way to the counterintuitive reality that drought stabilizes the food and income supply for poor people. We analyze how maladaptive risk reduction, which is embedded in clientilistic social relations, undermines resilience, and we examine pathways toward a more sustainable adaptive relationship.     

Sex ratios under asymmetrical local mate competition in the parasitoid wasp Nasonia vitripennis

Sex ratio theory has proved remarkably useful in testing theadaptive nature of animal behavior. A particularly productivearea in this respect is Hamilton's theory of local mate competition(LMC), which has been extended in numerous directions to includegreater biological realism, allowing more detailed tests inspecific organisms. We have presented one such extension, termedasymmetrical LMC, which occurs when egg laying by females ona patch is asynchronous, and emerging males do not disperse,resulting in the extent of LMC on a patch varying over time.Our aim here is to test whether the parasitoid wasp Nasoniavitripennis responds to variation in the degree of asymmetricalLMC. Specifically, we show that females adjust their offspringsex ratios in response to (1) variation in the amount of asynchronyin emergence between broods on a patch and (2) the number andproportion of previously parasitized hosts on the patch. Ourresults provide qualitative support for the predictions of theory,suggesting new levels of complexity in the sex ratio behaviorof this much-studied organism. However, our results do not alwaysprovide quantitative support for theory, suggesting furthercomplexities that must be clarified.     

Evolutionary rescue by beneficial mutations in environments that change in space and time

A factor that may limit the ability of many populations to adapt to changing conditions is the rate at which beneficial mutations can become established. We study the probability that mutations become established in changing environments by extending the classic theory for branching processes. When environments change in time, under quite general conditions, the establishment probability is approximately twice the ‘effective selection coefficient’, whose value is an average that gives most weight to a mutant''s fitness in the generations immediately after it appears. When fitness varies along a gradient in a continuous habitat, increased dispersal generally decreases the chance a mutation establishes because mutations move out of areas where they are most adapted. When there is a patch of favourable habitat that moves in time, there is a maximum speed of movement above which mutations cannot become established, regardless of when and where they first appear. This critical speed limit, which is proportional to the mutation''s maximum selective advantage, represents an absolute constraint on the potential of locally adapted mutations to contribute to evolutionary rescue.     

Biogeography of Iberian freshwater fishes revisited: the roles of historical versus contemporary constraints

Aim The question of how much of the shared geographical distribution of biota is due to environmental vs. historical constraints remains unanswered. The aim of this paper is to disentangle the contribution of historical vs. contemporary factors to the distribution of freshwater fish species. In addition, it illustrates how quantifying the contribution of each type of factor improves the classification of biogeographical provinces. Location Iberian Peninsula, south‐western Europe (c. 581,000 km²). Methods We used the most comprehensive data on native fish distributions for the Iberian Peninsula, compiled from Portuguese and Spanish sources on a 20‐km grid‐cell resolution. Overall, 58 species were analysed after being categorized into three groups according to their ability to disperse through saltwater: (1) species strictly intolerant of saltwater (primary species); (2) species partially tolerant of saltwater, making limited incursions into saltwaters (secondary species); and (3) saltwater‐tolerant species that migrate back and forth from sea to freshwaters or have invaded freshwaters recently (peripheral species). Distance‐based multivariate analyses were used to test the role of historical (basin formation) vs. contemporary environmental (climate) conditions in explaining current patterns of native fish assemblage composition. Cluster analyses were performed to explore species co‐occurrence patterns and redefine biogeographical provinces based on the distributions of fishes. Results River basin boundaries were better at segregating species composition for all species groups than contemporary climate variables. This historical signal was especially evident for primary and secondary freshwater fishes. Eleven biogeographical provinces were delineated. Basins flowing to the Atlantic Ocean north of the Tagus Basin and those flowing to the Mediterranean Sea north of the Mijares Basin were the most dissimilar group. Primary and secondary freshwater species had higher province fidelity than peripheral species. Main conclusions The results support the hypothesis that historical factors exert greater constraints on native freshwater fish assemblages in the Iberian Peninsula than do current environmental factors. After examining patterns of assemblage variation across space, as evidenced by the biogeographical provinces, we discuss the likely dispersal and speciation events that underlie these patterns.     

What paths do advantageous alleles take during short‐term evolutionary change?

Combining experimental evolution with whole‐genome resequencing is a promising new strategy for investigating the dynamics of evolutionary change. Published studies that have resequenced laboratory‐selected populations of sexual organisms have typically focused on populations sampled at the end of an evolution experiment. These studies have attempted to associate particular alleles with phenotypic change and attempted to distinguish between different theoretical models of adaptation. However, neither the population used to initiate the experiment nor multiple time points sampled during the evolutionary trajectory are generally available for examination. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Orozco‐terWengel et al. (2012) take a significant step forward by estimating genome‐wide allele frequencies at the start, 15 generations into and at the end of a 37‐generation Drosophila experimental evolution study. The authors identify regions of the genome that have responded to laboratory selection and describe the temporal dynamics of allele frequency change. They identify two common trajectories for putatively adaptive alleles: alleles either gradually increase in frequency throughout the entire 37 generations or alleles plateau at a new frequency by generation 15. The identification of complex trajectories of alleles under selection contributes to a growing body of literature suggesting that simple models of adaptation, whereby beneficial alleles arise and increase in frequency unimpeded until they become fixed, may not adequately describe short‐term response to selection.     

Contrast-FEL—A Test for Differences in Selective Pressures at Individual Sites among Clades and Sets of Branches

A number of evolutionary hypotheses can be tested by comparing selective pressures among sets of branches in a phylogenetic tree. When the question of interest is to identify specific sites within genes that may be evolving differently, a common approach is to perform separate analyses on subsets of sequences and compare parameter estimates in a post hoc fashion. This approach is statistically suboptimal and not always applicable. Here, we develop a simple extension of a popular fixed effects likelihood method in the context of codon-based evolutionary phylogenetic maximum likelihood testing, Contrast-FEL. It is suitable for identifying individual alignment sites where any among the K≥2 sets of branches in a phylogenetic tree have detectably different ω ratios, indicative of different selective regimes. Using extensive simulations, we show that Contrast-FEL delivers good power, exceeding 90% for sufficiently large differences, while maintaining tight control over false positive rates, when the model is correctly specified. We conclude by applying Contrast-FEL to data from five previously published studies spanning a diverse range of organisms and focusing on different evolutionary questions.     

Microsatellites from the vairone Leuciscus souffia (Pisces: Cyprinidae) and their application to closely related species

Eleven microsatellites were isolated from the vairone Leuciscus souffia (Risso 1826), an endangered fish that inhabits river systems in and around the Alps in Europe. The level of genetic diversity was assessed in 29 individuals of the subspecies L. s. souffia, and their variability was further estimated in seven individuals of a different subspecies, L. s. muticellus. Eight of these microsatellite loci were also applied to seven closely related cyprinid species. Availability of the reported microsatellite loci will facilitate the investigation of population genetic structure of these species with applications for the development of conservation strategies and phylogeographical approaches.     

Gene flow between populations of two invertebrates in springs

1. Using allozymes, we analysed genetic structure of the freshwater gastropod Bythinella dunkeri and the freshwater flatworm Crenobia alpina. The two species are habitat specialists, living almost exclusively in springs. The sampled area in Hesse (Germany) covers a spatial scale of 20 km and includes two river drainages. From the biology of the two species we expected little dispersal along rivers. However, the possibility exists that groundwater provide suitable pathways for dispersal. 2. In B. dunkeri heterozygosity decreased from west to east. For some alleles we found clines in this geographic direction. These clines generated a positive correlation between geographic distance and genetic differentiation. Furthermore patterns of genetic variation within populations suggested that populations may have been faced with bottlenecks and founder effects. If populations are not in population genetic equilibrium, such founder effects would also explain the rather high amount of genetic differentiation between populations (10%). 3. For C. alpina the mean number of alleles decreased with increasing isolation of populations. Genetic differentiation between populations contributed 19% to the total genetic variation. Genetic differentiation was not correlated to geographic distance, but compared with B. dunkeri variability of pairwise differentiation between pairs of populations was higher in C. alpina. 4. Overall B. dunkeri appears to be a fairly good disperser, which may use groundwater as dispersal pathway. Furthermore populations seem to be not in equilibrium. In contrast C. alpina forms rather isolated populations with little dispersal between springs and groundwater seems to play no important role for dispersal.     

Effect of stocking density on the behavior of newly transformed juvenile Macrobrachium rosenbergii

This study characterized the behavioral activity of Macrobrachium rosenbergii in the early stages of development, under different stocking densities (25 and 40 animals/m²), and during the light and dark phases of a 24-h cycle. Observations of individuals were made in 8 aquariums. Behavioral recording lasted 15 min/aquarium, 4 times/day and 4 days/week, 4 weeks in total. Food was offered twice daily. Observational methods included a combination of behavioral sampling and scan sampling. During the light phase, inactivity, cleaning and remaining in a shelter were the most frequent behaviors. During the dark phase the subjects displayed a higher frequency of feeding, exploration, swimming, and digging. At low density, the animals gained more weight and exhibited greater growth overall. These results indicate a behavioral pattern that is more favorable to animals in the lower density cultivation environment that can also create better living conditions for these shrimp, favor survival rates and therefore improve management success.