Flood Risk Analysis Based on Information Diffusion Theory

Due to the fact that the flood data series of small drainage basins is relatively short, available data are often not sufficient for flood risk analysis. This presents the problem of risk analysis using very small data samples. One method that can be applied is to regard the available small samples as fuzzy information and optimize them using information diffusion technology to yield analytical results with greater reliability. In this article a risk analysis method based on information diffusion theory is applied to create a new flood risk analysis model. Application of the model is illustrated taking the Jinhuajiang and Qujiang drainage basins as examples. This is a new attempt at applying information diffusion theory in flood risk analysis. Computations based on this analytical flood risk model can yield an estimated flood damage value that is relatively accurate. This study indicates that the aforementioned model exhibits fairly stable analytical results, even when using a small set of sample data. The results also indicate that information diffusion technology is highly capable of extracting useful information and therefore improves system recognition accuracy. This method can be easily applied and the analytical results produced are easy to understand. Results are accurate enough to act as a guide in disaster situations.     

The Importance of Hydrodynamics for Protected and Endangered Biodiversity of Lowland Rivers

This paper examines the relationship between protected and endangered riverine species (target species) and hydrodynamics in river-floodplain ecosystems, combining ecological and policy-legal aspects of biodiversity conservation in river management. The importance of different hydrodynamic conditions along a lateral gradient was quantified for various taxonomic groups. Our results show that (i) target species require ecotopes along the entire hydrodynamic gradient; (ii) different parts of the hydrodynamic gradient are important to different species, belonging to different taxonomic groups; (iii) in particular low-dynamic parts are important for many species and (iv) species differ in their specificity for hydrodynamic conditions. Many species of higher plants, fish and butterflies have a narrow range for hydrodynamics and many species of birds and mammals use ecotopes along the entire gradient. Even when focussing only on target species, the entire natural hydrodynamic gradient is important. This means that the riverine species assemblage as a whole can benefit from measures focussing on target species only. River reconstruction and management should aim at re-establishing the entire hydrodynamic gradient, increasing the spatial heterogeneity of hydrodynamic conditions.     

Effect of rainstorms on heterotrophic bacterial activity in a hypertrophic African lake

Hartbeespoort Dam is a hypertrophic man-made lake which is located in the Transvaal Province of South Africa. This region has recently experienced its most severe drought of the century. However, on three occasions in the summer rainy seasons of 1984 and 1985, major rainfalls (> 50 mm) occurred which caused large inflows to the lake. Inflowing river water entered as a density current causing marked silting of the water. Within the epilimnion (0–10 m) prior to these rainfalls there was usually no variation of bacterial numbers with depth, but heterotrophic bacterial activity (glucose uptake) decreased with depth concomitant with primary production. With the increased river inflow bacterial numbers did not increase but bacterial activity at the bottom of the epilimnion (10 m) increased to as high as 2.7 µg C l^–1 h^–1 in January 1985, reversing the depth profile of bacterial activity within the epilimnion. This resulted in decreased glucose concentrations (K_t + S_n) and turnover times. Heterotrophic activity per cell increased by between 2.5 and 5 times. These data demonstrate that storm events are important phenomena causing short-term changes in the metabolic activity of planktonic heterotrophic bacteria in lakes.     

The detection and attribution of extreme reductions in vegetation growth across the global land surface

Negative extreme anomalies in vegetation growth (NEGs) usually indicate severely impaired ecosystem services. These NEGs can result from diverse natural and anthropogenic causes, especially climate extremes (CEs). However, the relationship between NEGs and many types of CEs remains largely unknown at regional and global scales. Here, with satellite-derived vegetation index data and supporting tree-ring chronologies, we identify periods of NEGs from 1981 to 2015 across the global land surface. We find 70% of these NEGs are attributable to five types of CEs and their combinations, with compound CEs generally more detrimental than individual ones. More importantly, we find that dominant CEs for NEGs vary by biome and region. Specifically, cold and/or wet extremes dominate NEGs in temperate mountains and high latitudes, whereas soil drought and related compound extremes are primarily responsible for NEGs in wet tropical, arid and semi-arid regions. Key characteristics (e.g., the frequency, intensity and duration of CEs, and the vulnerability of vegetation) that determine the dominance of CEs are also region- and biome-dependent. For example, in the wet tropics, dominant individual CEs have both higher intensity and longer duration than non-dominant ones. However, in the dry tropics and some temperate regions, a longer CE duration is more important than higher intensity. Our work provides the first global accounting of the attribution of NEGs to diverse climatic extremes. Our analysis has important implications for developing climate-specific disaster prevention and mitigation plans among different regions of the globe in a changing climate.     

Environmental influences on local amphibian diversity: the role of floods on river basins

We tested two hypotheses about boundary units and seven about environmental control of species diversity in order to explain geographical trends in the richness of amphibian species in the Mediterranean watershed of the southern coast of the Iberian Peninsula. The number of amphibian species tends to decrease from west to east. The longitudinal trend in the richness of amphibian species actually occurs on passing from one basin to another, but there is not any longitudinal trend within the basins. Multivariate analyses confirmed that the disturbances of episodic river-basin floodings were the principal factor which controls the richness of amphibian species. They explained 94.8% of the observed variations in the richness of amphibian species in this area, according to the intermediate disturbance hypothesis.We propose hydrographic basins as suitable geographical units for further biogeographical analysis and for considering the role of disturbances produced by floods in the environmental control of species diversity.     

Hatching plasticity in a Southeast Asian tree frog mitigates submergence-induced mortality

Environmentally cued hatching has been well-documented in amphibians in response to a wide range of abiotic and biotic factors. The hatching of terrestrial amphibian eggs in response to flooding may be basal within the group, but amphibian lineages in tropical Asia and sub-Saharan Africa have not received as much attention as their Neotropical counterparts. We investigated submergence-induced hatching in Feihyla hansenae, a Rhacophorid tree frog with terrestrial eggs. We quantified natural rates of clutch submergence at our study site in Thailand. Using submergence experiments, we found that embryos are capable of hatching early to escape flooding, and that failure to hatch results in mortality. Among the embryos that were able to hatch early, only the earliest, youngest hatchlings experienced a trade-off in body size that persisted for 6 days, while later, older hatchlings were not significantly smaller than spontaneous hatchlings under control conditions. By incorporating our natural and experimental data into Monte Carlo methods to simulate and compare survival probabilities with and without hatching plasticity, we found an overall 3.1% increase in submergence survival due to hatching plasticity. Our findings support the idea that flooding-induced hatching is widespread across amphibians with terrestrial eggs and highlight the importance of researching understudied tropical regions. As climate change is projected to affect rainfall patterns, the ability of embryos to escape abiotic egg-stage threats may be an indicator of species' ability to flexibly navigate a changing environment.     

Influence of flood timing on the recovery of macrophytes in a former river channel

Over two vegetation cycles we compared the recovery of macrophytes from flood disturbances that occured at different seasons (July vs December) on patches of a former channel of the Rhône River, France. Some patches were disturbed twice; others were disturbed either in summer or in winter; others were never disturbed and were used as controls.The recovery rate of the vegetation was estimated from the duration of recolonization of the disturbed areas and of growth of the recolonizing species. The influence of the summer disturbance appeared to be strong because the disturbance occurred when the development of the vegetation was maximum. The influence of the winter disturbance was apparently much lower since most species had already declined at this time because of their phenology. The repetition of the two disturbances on the same patch had little influence on the vegetation community.In all cases, the recovery of the vegetation occurred rapidly, both for total vegetation cover and species richness. By the following spring, no significant differences appeared between disturbed and reference patches. The effect of the disturbances varied according to the phenology of the plants, and the macrophyte community studied was more sensitive in summer than in winter.     

Risk Assessment for a Flood Control Engineering System Using Fuzzy Theory: A Case in China

Flood control engineering system risk assessment entails fuzziness. An assessment model is developed, based on the improved fuzzy comprehensive assessment method that developed a new index (S_fin ) to judge the assessment class. The model is used to assess the flood control engineering risk of a case in China. The results show that the proposed model in the present article can rationally determine the risk status of a flood control engineering system, and has higher resolution compared to the two conventional methods, fuzzy comprehensive assessment and matter-element model method. The proposed model is flexible and adaptable for determining flood control engineering system risk status.     

A plant‐traits approach to assessing the success of alien weed species in irrigated Mediterranean orchards

In addition to their impact on natural habitats, invasive alien plants can have a significant negative effect on agricultural systems and cause economic losses. Flood‐irrigated orchards in the Mediterranean Basin are vulnerable to the invasion of alien weeds, primarily because of the traditional management practices used in the orchards, which are characterized by high soil moisture during the dry summer period, nutrient availability and high levels of disturbance. This study sought to determine whether their biological traits can explain the success of alien weed species. To answer this question, 408 floristic relevés were conducted in 136 flood‐irrigated orchards on the Plains of Lleida (Catalonia, NE of Spain). Richness and cover of native and alien weeds were compared. Furthermore, a set of biological traits were compared between successful and non‐successful weeds for the whole data and separately between native and alien weeds using logistic regression and classification trees. In flood‐irrigated orchards, alien species covered most of their area, even though the richness of alien species was lower than that of the native species. The most important species were C4 species with seeds dispersed by water, and on the other hand, rosulate and caespitose‐reptant hemicryptophytes with long flowering period. Most of these traits fitted with those of the invasive alien weeds, which were mostly C4 species with seeds dispersed by water. Perennial life form characterized successful native weeds. In this study, we discuss how the traditional management of flood irrigation in fruit‐tree orchards favours invasive alien weeds that have specific traits, acting as a reservoir for the spread of alien weeds into other crops and surrounding riparian habitats. We also propose changing management practices in order to avoid the selection of alien weeds and to promote native species.     

Does stream flow structure woody riparian vegetation in subtropical catchments?

The primary objective of this study was to test the relevance of hydrological classification and class differences to the characteristics of woody riparian vegetation in a subtropical landscape in Queensland, Australia. We followed classification procedures of the environmental flow framework ELOHA – Ecological Limits of Hydrologic Alteration. Riparian surveys at 44 sites distributed across five flow classes recorded 191 woody riparian species and 15, 500 individuals. There were differences among flow classes for riparian species richness, total abundance, and abundance of regenerating native trees and shrubs. There were also significant class differences in the occurrence of three common tree species, and 21 indicator species (mostly native taxa) further distinguished the vegetation characteristics of each flow class. We investigated the influence of key drivers of riparian vegetation structure (climate, depth to water table, stream‐specific power, substrate type, degree of hydrologic alteration, and land use) on riparian vegetation. Patterns were explained largely by climate, particularly annual rainfall and temperature. Strong covarying drivers (hydrology and climate) prevented us from isolating the independent influences of these drivers on riparian assemblage structure. The prevalence of species considered typically rheophytic in some flow classes implies a more substantial role for flow in these classes but needs further testing. No relationships were found between land use and riparian vegetation composition and structure. This study demonstrates the relevance of flow classification to the structure of riparian vegetation in a subtropical landscape, and the influence of covarying drivers on riparian patterns. Management of environmental flows to influence riparian vegetation assemblages would likely have most potential in sites dominated by rheophytic species where hydrological influences override other controls. In contrast, where vegetation assemblages are dominated by a diverse array of typical rainforest species, and other factors including broad‐scale climatic gradients and topographic variables have greater influence than hydrology, riparian vegetation is likely to be less responsive to environmental flow management.