Bird carcass detection from integrated trials at multiple wind farms

It is often necessary to estimate the number of wind turbine collision fatalities to assess impacts to birds following construction of wind farms. Detection of bird carcasses at wind turbines in the field is affected by carcass persistence and searcher detection rate. Integrated detection trials, which integrate carcass persistence and searcher detection trials into the periodic fatality search, have been proposed as an effective method for estimating these parameters. The purpose of our study was to test whether and how environmental factors affect integrated detection trial outcomes at multiple wind farms. We conducted this study at 10 wind farms in various environments of Japan. Binary data on trial outcomes in open versus forested areas served as our response variable in a generalized additive mixed model informed by days into trial, carcass body mass, season, whether snow covered the ground, and precipitation. For both ground cover types, days into trial and body mass were included in all the top models, suggesting that these factors most influenced bird carcass detection probability in integrated trials. The best model in open areas included days into trial, body mass, snow, and precipitation, and the best model in forested areas included days into trial, body mass, snow, precipitation, and season. Values of area under the curve indicated high accuracy of the best model for both ground cover types. The survey design needs to be appropriate to the size of the target species and to the environment in which the impacts will occur, such as the site's seasonality, its ground cover, and whether snow will cover the ground. Frequency of post-construction fatality monitoring should also be set cautiously, especially at wind farms located on small-bird migration routes, at wind farms in open areas, in areas with snow-covered ground in winter, or in forested areas during spring and summer because detection probabilities decline fastest under such conditions.     

Dogs Detect Larger Wind Energy Effects on Bats and Birds

As wind turbine-caused mortality of birds and bats increases with increasing wind energy capacity, accurate fatality estimates are needed to assess effects, identify collision factors, and formulate mitigation. Finding a larger proportion of collision victims reduces the magnitude of adjustment for the proportion not found, thus reducing opportunities for bias. We tested detection dogs in trials of bat and small-bird carcasses placed randomly in routine fatality monitoring at the Buena Vista and Golden Hills Wind Energy projects, California, USA, 2017. Of trial carcasses placed and confirmed available before next-day fatality searches, dogs detected 96% of bats and 90% of small birds, whereas humans at a neighboring wind project detected 6% of bats and 30% of small birds. At Golden Hills dogs found 71 bat fatalities in 55 searches compared to 1 bat found by humans in 69 searches within the same search plots over the same season. Dog detection rates of trial carcasses remained unchanged with distance from turbine, and dogs found more fatalities than did humans at greater distances from turbines. Patterns of fatalities found by dogs within search plots indicated 20% of birds and 4–14% of bats remained undetected outside search plots at Buena Vista and Golden Hills. Dogs also increased estimates of carcass persistence by finding detection trial carcasses that the trial administrator had erroneously concluded were removed. Compared to human searches, dog searches resulted in fatality estimates up to 6.4 and 2.7 times higher for bats and small birds, respectively, along with higher relative precision and >90% lower cost per fatality detection. © 2020 The Authors. The Journal of Wildlife Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Wildlife Society.     

Estimating Wind Turbine-Caused Bird Mortality

ABSTRACT Mortality estimates are needed of birds and bats killed by wind turbines because wind power generation is rapidly expanding worldwide. A mortality estimate is based on the number of fatalities assumed caused by wind turbines and found during periodic searches, plus the estimated number not found. The 2 most commonly used estimators adjust mortality estimates by rates of searcher detection and scavenger removal of carcasses. However, searcher detection trials can be biased by the species used in the trial, the number volitionally placed for a given fatality search, and the disposition of the carcass on the ground. Scavenger removal trials can be biased by the metric representing removal rate, the number of carcasses placed at once, the duration of the trial, species used, whether carcasses were frozen, whether carcasses included injuries consistent with wind turbine collisions, season, distance from the wind turbines, and general location. I summarized searcher detection rates among reported trials, and I developed models to predict the proportion of carcasses remaining since the last fatality search. The summaries I present can be used to adjust previous and future estimates of mortality to improve comparability. I also identify research directions to better understand these and other adjustments needed to compare mortality estimates among wind farms.     

A comment on “Novel scavenger removal trials increase wind turbine-caused avian fatality estimates”

In a recent paper, Smallwood et al. (2010) conducted a study to compare their “novel” approach to conducting carcass removal trials with what they term the “conventional” approach and to evaluate the effects of the different methods on estimated avian fatality at a wind power facility in California. A quick glance at Table 3 that succinctly summarizes their results and provides estimated fatality rates and 80% confidence intervals calculated using the 2 methods reveals a surprising result. The confidence intervals of all of their estimates and most of the conventional estimates extend below 0. These results imply that wind turbines may have the capacity to create live birds. But a more likely interpretation is that a serious error occurred in the calculation of either the average fatality rate or its standard error or both. Further evaluation of their methods reveals that the scientific basis for concluding that “many estimates of scavenger removal rates prior to [their] study were likely biased low due to scavenger swamping” and “previously reported estimates of avian fatality rates … should be adjusted upwards” was not evident in their analysis and results. Their comparison to conventional approaches was not applicable, their statistical models were questionable, and the conclusions they drew were unsupported. © 2013 The Wildlife Society.     

Regional TMPRSS2 V197M Allele Frequencies Are Correlated with COVID-19 Case Fatality Rates

Coronavirus disease, COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019), caused by SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2), has a higher case fatality rate in European countries than in others, especially East Asian ones. One potential explanation for this regional difference is the diversity of the viral infection efficiency. Here, we analyzed the allele frequencies of a nonsynonymous variant rs12329760 (V197M) in the TMPRSS2 gene, a key enzyme essential for viral infection and found a significant association between the COVID-19 case fatality rate and the V197M allele frequencies, using over 200,000 present-day and ancient genomic samples. East Asian countries have higher V197M allele frequencies than other regions, including European countries which correlates to their lower case fatality rates. Structural and energy calculation analysis of the V197M amino acid change showed that it destabilizes the TMPRSS2 protein, possibly negatively affecting its ACE2 and viral spike protein processing.