Praying for Drought: Persistent Vulnerability and the Politics of Patronage in Ceará, Northeast Brazil

ABSTRACT   The phrase persistent vulnerability reflects the enduring relationship of the rural population in Ceará with a highly variable climate. Persistence underscores the historical and unyielding nature of this vulnerability. Yet contrary to once-catastrophic rates of mortality etched in a public consciousness, no one dies from severe droughts and few people flee them as in the past. Government relief and social transfers have become the institutionalized form of adaptation, giving way to the counterintuitive reality that drought stabilizes the food and income supply for poor people. We analyze how maladaptive risk reduction, which is embedded in clientilistic social relations, undermines resilience, and we examine pathways toward a more sustainable adaptive relationship.     

An Extreme Value Analysis of Pollutant Concentrations in Surface Soils Due to Atmospheric Deposition

Risk assessments often rely on deterministic models using long-term averages or “steady-state” values of input variables. Such models do not provide the information needed to estimate acute exposures. This study uses extreme value theory to examine the frequency and magnitude of daily pollutant concentrations in surface soils predicted at six U.S. locations. Concentrations are predicted using a deposition-leaching model and 50 years of historical precipitation data. A stochastic model also is used to generate 1000 years of precipitation data as modeling inputs for each location. The annual maximum concentrations at each site are fitted to a Gumbel type I distribution to estimate occurrence probability. For soluble pollutants, the predicted concentration varied substantially with precipitation, and the maximum daily concentrations exceeded annual averages by 4 to 8 times. Observed and synthetic precipitation data produced similar results at most study locations, though the synthetic data provided a slightly better fit to the Gumbel type I distribution. The precipitation model allows the generation of representative precipitation data that extend limited historical records. The extreme value analysis facilitates the evaluation of maximum pollutant concentrations, return periods, and other statistics that are important in evaluating acute exposures.     

Disentangling the link between leaf photosynthesis and turgor in fruit growth

Despite the importance of understanding plant growth, the mechanisms underlying how plant and fruit growth declines during drought remain poorly understood. Specifically, it remains unresolved whether carbon or water factors are responsible for limiting growth as drought progresses. We examine questions regarding the relative importance of water and carbon to fruit growth depending on the water deficit level and the fruit growth stage by measuring fruit diameter, leaf photosynthesis, and a proxy of cell turgor in olive (Olea europaea). Flow cytometry was also applied to determine the fruit cell division stage. We found that photosynthesis and turgor were related to fruit growth; specifically, the relative importance of photosynthesis was higher during periods of more intense cell division, while turgor had higher relative importance in periods where cell division comes close to ceasing and fruit growth is dependent mainly on cell expansion. This pattern was found regardless of the water deficit level, although turgor and growth ceased at more similar values of leaf water potential than photosynthesis. Cell division occurred even when fruit growth seemed to stop under water deficit conditions, which likely helped fruits to grow disproportionately when trees were hydrated again, compensating for periods with low turgor. As a result, the final fruit size was not severely penalized. We conclude that carbon and water processes are able to explain fruit growth, with importance placed on the combination of cell division and expansion. However, the major limitation to growth is turgor, which adds evidence to the sink limitation hypothesis.     

Response to drought among farmers and herders in southern Kajiado District,Kenya

From 1972 to 1976 rainfall in Kajiado District of Kenya was below normal. The capacity of the farming and herding systems to cope with the consequent reduction in production is discussed within a context of changing land-use patterns and altered resource availability. It is concluded that land-use planning to allocate the available land and water resources and to promote off-farm employment is required to reduce the vulnerability of the population to future drought conditions.