On computational efficiency of the hybrid Monte Carlo method applied to the multicanonical ensemble

Abstract

In the present paper, computational efficiency of the hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) method applied to the multicanonical ensemble is studied; the HMC is an equation of motion guided Monte Carlo method. As in the standard HMC for the canonical ensemble, the multicanonical HMC calculations with high acceptance ratio show better efficiency; about 60% acceptance yields the best performance for the system examined.     

基于集合经验模态分解去趋势的水分利用效率对气候变化响应的高程分异——以“21世纪海上丝绸之路”沿线省份为例

水分利用效率(WUE)是表征陆地碳-水循环耦合关系的重要指标，但其对气候变化响应的高程分异仍不清楚。通过集合经验模态分解(EEMD)去趋势和偏相关方法，以"21世纪海上丝绸之路"沿线省份为研究区，揭示WUE对气候变化的响应及其随高程的分异。研究结果表明：(1)研究区内WUE多年均值由中心向南北递减。不同植被类型的WUE多年均值由高到低依次为：常绿针叶林、混交林、常绿阔叶林、稀树灌木草地、耕地和城市建设用地。(2)51.11%的区域表现出均温与WUE的正相关；而81.46%地区表明温差的扩大会使得WUE增加；有近一半的研究区表明最高温的升高有利于提高WUE，而最低温的作用则相反；有67.99%的区域表明降水增多反而会导致WUE的减少。(3)在大多数土地覆盖类型，日温差和最低温主要与WUE呈正相关，而最高温和降水主要与WUE呈负相关。在常绿针叶林、耕地和城市建设用地，日均温与WUE呈负相关。在其他三种植被类型下则呈正相关。(4)在低海拔地区，均温与WUE呈负相关而在中高海拔地区则转变为正相关关系。而最高温则正好相反。降水与WUE的负相关关系系数随高度的增加而不断加强，而温差和最低温与WUE的正相关关系也随高度的增加而剧烈波动增强。     

Hume and the argument for biological design

There seems to be a widespread conviction — evidenced, for example, in the work of Mackie, Dawkins and Sober — that it is Darwinian rather than Humean considerations which deal the fatal logical blow to arguments for intelligent design. I argue that this conviction cannot be well-founded. If there are current logically decisive objections to design arguments, they must be Humean — for Darwinian considerations count not at all against design arguments based upon apparent cosmological fine-tuning. I argue, further, that there are good Humean reasons for atheists and agnostics to resist the suggestion that apparent design — apparent biological design and/or apparent cosmological fine-tuning — establishes (or even strongly supports) the hypothesis of intelligent design.     

Change in climatically suitable breeding distributions reduces hybridization potential between Vermivora warblers

Aim

Climate change is affecting the distribution of species and subsequent biotic interactions, including hybridization potential. The imperiled Golden-winged Warbler (GWWA) competes and hybridizes with the Blue-winged Warbler (BWWA), which may threaten the persistence of GWWA due to introgression. We examined how climate change is likely to alter the breeding distributions and potential for hybridization between GWWA and BWWA.

Location

North America.

Methods

We used GWWA and BWWA occurrence data to model climatically suitable conditions under historical and future climate scenarios. Models were parameterized with 13 bioclimatic variables and 3 topographic variables. Using ensemble modeling, we estimated historical and modern distributions, as well as a projected distribution under six future climate scenarios. We quantified breeding distribution area, the position of and amount of overlap between GWWA and BWWA distributions under each climate scenario. We summarized the top explanatory variables in our model to predict environmental parameters of the distributions under future climate scenarios relative to historical climate.

Results

GWWA and BWWA distributions are projected to substantially change under future climate scenarios. GWWA are projected to undergo the greatest change; the area of climatically suitable breeding season conditions is expected to shift north to northwest; and range contraction is predicted in five out of six future climate scenarios. Climatically suitable conditions for BWWA decreased in four of the six future climate scenarios, while the distribution is projected to shift east. A reduction in overlapping distributions for GWWA and BWWA is projected under all six future climate scenarios.

Main Conclusions

Climate change is expected to substantially alter the area of climatically suitable conditions for GWWA and BWWA, with the southern portion of the current breeding ranges likely to become climatically unsuitable. However, interactions between BWWA and GWWA are expected to decline with the decrease in overlapping habitat, which may reduce the risk of genetic introgression.     

What and where? Predicting invasion hotspots in the Arctic marine realm

The risk of aquatic invasions in the Arctic is expected to increase with climate warming, greater shipping activity and resource exploitation in the region. Planktonic and benthic marine aquatic invasive species (AIS) with the greatest potential for invasion and impact in the Canadian Arctic were identified and the 23 riskiest species were modelled to predict their potential spatial distributions at pan‐Arctic and global scales. Modelling was conducted under present environmental conditions and two intermediate future (2050 and 2100) global warming scenarios. Invasion hotspots—regions of the Arctic where habitat is predicted to be suitable for a high number of potential AIS—were located in Hudson Bay, Northern Grand Banks/Labrador, Chukchi/Eastern Bering seas and Barents/White seas, suggesting that these regions could be more vulnerable to invasions. Globally, both benthic and planktonic organisms showed a future poleward shift in suitable habitat. At a pan‐Arctic scale, all organisms showed suitable habitat gains under future conditions. However, at the global scale, habitat loss was predicted in more tropical regions for some taxa, particularly most planktonic species. Results from the present study can help prioritize management efforts in the face of climate change in the Arctic marine ecosystem. Moreover, this particular approach provides information to identify present and future high‐risk areas for AIS in response to global warming.     

Climate change promotes transitions to tall evergreen vegetation in tropical Asia

Vegetation in tropical Asia is highly diverse due to large environmental gradients and heterogeneity of landscapes. This biodiversity is threatened by intense land use and climate change. However, despite the rich biodiversity and the dense human population, tropical Asia is often underrepresented in global biodiversity assessments. Understanding how climate change influences the remaining areas of natural vegetation is therefore highly important for conservation planning. Here, we used the adaptive Dynamic Global Vegetation Model version 2 (aDGVM2) to simulate impacts of climate change and elevated CO₂ on vegetation formations in tropical Asia for an ensemble of climate change scenarios. We used climate forcing from five different climate models for representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We found that vegetation in tropical Asia will remain a carbon sink until 2099, and that vegetation biomass increases of up to 28% by 2099 are associated with transitions from small to tall woody vegetation and from deciduous to evergreen vegetation. Patterns of phenology were less responsive to climate change and elevated CO₂ than biomes and biomass, indicating that the selection of variables and methods used to detect vegetation changes is crucial. Model simulations revealed substantial variation within the ensemble, both in biomass increases and in distributions of different biome types. Our results have important implications for management policy, because they suggest that large ensembles of climate models and scenarios are required to assess a wide range of potential future trajectories of vegetation change and to develop robust management plans. Furthermore, our results highlight open ecosystems with low tree cover as most threatened by climate change, indicating potential conflicts of interest between biodiversity conservation in open ecosystems and active afforestation to enhance carbon sequestration.     

Substrate binding to Src: A new perspective on tyrosine kinase substrate recognition from NMR and molecular dynamics

Most signal transduction pathways in humans are regulated by protein kinases through phosphorylation of their protein substrates. Typical eukaryotic protein kinases are of two major types: those that phosphorylate‐specific sequences containing tyrosine (~90 kinases) and those that phosphorylate either serine or threonine (~395 kinases). The highly conserved catalytic domain of protein kinases comprises a smaller N lobe and a larger C lobe separated by a cleft region lined by the activation loop. Prior studies find that protein tyrosine kinases recognize peptide substrates by binding the polypeptide chain along the C‐lobe on one side of the activation loop, while serine/threonine kinases bind their substrates in the cleft and on the side of the activation loop opposite to that of the tyrosine kinases. Substrate binding structural studies have been limited to four families of the tyrosine kinase group, and did not include Src tyrosine kinases. We examined peptide‐substrate binding to Src using paramagnetic‐relaxation‐enhancement NMR combined with molecular dynamics simulations. The results suggest Src tyrosine kinase can bind substrate positioning residues C‐terminal to the phosphoacceptor residue in an orientation similar to serine/threonine kinases, and unlike other tyrosine kinases. Mutagenesis corroborates this new perspective on tyrosine kinase substrate recognition. Rather than an evolutionary split between tyrosine and serine/threonine kinases, a change in substrate recognition may have occurred within the TK group of the human kinome. Protein tyrosine kinases have long been therapeutic targets, but many marketed drugs have deleterious off‐target effects. More accurate knowledge of substrate interactions of tyrosine kinases has the potential for improving drug selectivity.     

Ecomorphology of the African felid ensemble: The role of the skull and postcranium in determining species segregation and assembling history

Morphology of extant felids is regarded as highly conservative. Most previous studies have focussed on skull morphology, so a vacuum exists about morphofunctional variation in postcranium and its role in structuring ensembles of felids in different continents. The African felid ensemble is particularly rich in ecologically specialized felids. We studied the ecomorphology of this ensemble using 31 cranial and 93 postcranial morphometric variables measured in 49 specimens of all 10 African species. We took a multivariate approach controlling for phylogeny, with and without body size correction. Postcranial and skull + postcranial analyses (but not skull‐only analyses) allowed for a complete segregation of species in morphospace. Morphofunctional factors segregating species included body size, bite force, zeugopodial lengths and osteological features related to parasagittal leg movement. A general gradient of bodily proportions was recovered: lightly built, long‐legged felids with small heads and weak bite forces vs. the opposite. Three loose groups were recognized: small terrestrial felids, mid‐to‐large sized scansorial felids and specialized Acinonyx jubatus and Leptailurus serval. As predicted from a previous study, the assembling of the African felid ensemble during the Plio‐Pleistocene occurred by the arrival of distinct felid lineages that occupied then vacant areas of morphospace, later diversifying in the continent.