Evolutionary rescue by beneficial mutations in environments that change in space and time

A factor that may limit the ability of many populations to adapt to changing conditions is the rate at which beneficial mutations can become established. We study the probability that mutations become established in changing environments by extending the classic theory for branching processes. When environments change in time, under quite general conditions, the establishment probability is approximately twice the ‘effective selection coefficient’, whose value is an average that gives most weight to a mutant''s fitness in the generations immediately after it appears. When fitness varies along a gradient in a continuous habitat, increased dispersal generally decreases the chance a mutation establishes because mutations move out of areas where they are most adapted. When there is a patch of favourable habitat that moves in time, there is a maximum speed of movement above which mutations cannot become established, regardless of when and where they first appear. This critical speed limit, which is proportional to the mutation''s maximum selective advantage, represents an absolute constraint on the potential of locally adapted mutations to contribute to evolutionary rescue.     

On the choice of the optimal periodic operation for a continuous fermentation process

In this contribution we investigate the impact of the forcing waveform on the productivity of a continuous bioreactor governed by an unstructured, nonlinear kinetic model. The (periodic) forcing is applied on the substrate concentration in the feed. To this end, some alternative waveforms commonly encountered in practice are evaluated and their performance is compared. An analytical/numerical approach is used. The preliminary analytical step is based on the π‐criterion that gives useful information for small amplitudes. The extension to larger amplitudes, when significant improvements are expected, is then performed through a continuation‐optimization procedure. It is found that the choice of the specific waveform has an impact on the performance of the process and there is no unique best forcing for any process condition, but its choice depends on the operating parameters and the forcing amplitude and frequency values. Further, the influence of the waveform functions on the wash‐out conditions are extensively examined. The analysis shows that all the waveforms examined in this work may lead to significant enlargement of the nontrivial regime with respect to a steady state operation. In particular, square‐wave forcing leads in practice to the extinction of the wash‐out conditions for any feed substrate concentration and for a well defined choice of the forcing parameters. © 2010 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 2010     

An Extreme Value Analysis of Pollutant Concentrations in Surface Soils Due to Atmospheric Deposition

Risk assessments often rely on deterministic models using long-term averages or “steady-state” values of input variables. Such models do not provide the information needed to estimate acute exposures. This study uses extreme value theory to examine the frequency and magnitude of daily pollutant concentrations in surface soils predicted at six U.S. locations. Concentrations are predicted using a deposition-leaching model and 50 years of historical precipitation data. A stochastic model also is used to generate 1000 years of precipitation data as modeling inputs for each location. The annual maximum concentrations at each site are fitted to a Gumbel type I distribution to estimate occurrence probability. For soluble pollutants, the predicted concentration varied substantially with precipitation, and the maximum daily concentrations exceeded annual averages by 4 to 8 times. Observed and synthetic precipitation data produced similar results at most study locations, though the synthetic data provided a slightly better fit to the Gumbel type I distribution. The precipitation model allows the generation of representative precipitation data that extend limited historical records. The extreme value analysis facilitates the evaluation of maximum pollutant concentrations, return periods, and other statistics that are important in evaluating acute exposures.     

Environment versus dispersal in the assembly of western Amazonian palm communities

Aim It is a central issue in ecology and biogeography to understand what governs community assembly and the maintenance of biodiversity in tropical rain forest ecosystems. A key question is the relative importance of environmental species sorting (niche assembly) and dispersal limitation (dispersal assembly), which we investigate using a large dataset from diverse palm communities. Location Lowland rain forest, western Amazon River Basin, Peru. Methods We inventoried palm communities, registering all palm individuals and recording environmental conditions in 149 transects of 5 m × 500 m. We used ordination, Mantel tests and indicator species analysis (ISA) to assess compositional patterns, species responses to geographical location and environmental factors. Mantel tests were used to assess the relative importance of geographical distance (as a proxy for dispersal limitation) and environmental differences as possible drivers of dissimilarity in palm species composition. We repeated the Mantel tests for subsets of species that differ in traits of likely importance for habitat specialization and dispersal (height and range size). Results We found a strong relationship between compositional dissimilarity and environmental distance and a weaker but also significant relationship between compositional dissimilarity and geographical distance. Consistent with expectations, relationships with environmental and geographical distance were stronger for understorey species than for canopy species. Geographical distance had a higher correlation with compositional dissimilarity for small‐ranged species compared with large‐ranged species, whereas the opposite was true for environmental distance. The main environmental correlates were inundation and soil nutrient levels. Main conclusions The assembly of palm communities in the western Amazon appears to be driven primarily by species sorting according to hydrology and soil, but with dispersal limitation also playing an important role. The importance of environmental characteristics and geographical distance varies depending on plant height and geographical range size in agreement with functional predictions, increasing our confidence in the inferred assembly mechanisms.     

The colonization of palynomorphs by chytrids and thraustochytrids during pre–depositional taphonomic processes in tropical mangrove ecosystems

Degrees of colonization of palynomorphs from six mangrove plants by chytrids and thraustochytrids in four mangrove plant communities at each stage of the pre–depositional taphonomic process were investigated using a pollen–baiting method. Chytrids and thraustochytrids were the dominant group colonizing palynomorphs in mangroves, gaining access to the cytoplasm through the wall or aperture. There were no significant differences in the degree of colonization between the different plant communities. Pollen with a larger size and/or extensive apertural region appeared to be the most colonized, while the absence of apertures and the presence of a thick wall seemed to reduce the chance of colonization by these microorganisms. Taphonomic experiments showed that the longer palynomorphs take to settle into the mangrove sediments, the lower the possibility of survival from the destructive colonization by chytrids and thraustochytrids and consequently the less carbon that will be sequestered.     

On Branching Processes and the Early Stages of the Spread of an Epidemic

Branchingprocess(BP)isusedtomodeltheearlystagesofthespreadofasexuallytransmitteddisease.TheearlystagesofAIDSspreadwhichistransmittedbothhomosexuallyandheterosexuallyarestudiedasaBP.     

Preparation of capacitor’s electrode from sunflower seed shell

Series of nanoporous carbons are prepared from sunflower seed shell (SSS) by two different strategies and used as electrode material for electrochemical double-layer capacitor (EDLC). The surface area and pore-structure of the nanoporous carbons are characterized intensively using N₂ adsorption technique. The results show that the pore-structure of the carbons is closely related to activation temperature and dosage of KOH. Electrochemical measurements show that the carbons made by impregnation-activation process have better capacitive behavior and higher capacitance retention ratio at high drain current than the carbons made by carbonization-activation process, which is due to that there are abundant macroscopic pores and less interior micropore surface in the texture of the former. More importantly, the capacitive performances of these carbons are much better than ordered mesoporous carbons and commercial wood-based active carbon, thus highlighting the success of preparing high performance electrode material for EDLC from SSS.     

Parameter estimation for the distribution of single cell lag times

In Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment, it is vital to understand how lag times of individual cells are distributed over a bacterial population. Such identified distributions can be used to predict the time by which, in a growth-supporting environment, a few pathogenic cells can multiply to a poisoning concentration level.We model the lag time of a single cell, inoculated into a new environment, by the delay of the growth function characterizing the generated subpopulation. We introduce an easy-to-implement procedure, based on the method of moments, to estimate the parameters of the distribution of single cell lag times. The advantage of the method is especially apparent for cases where the initial number of cells is small and random, and the culture is detectable only in the exponential growth phase.     

On the Application of Fuzzy Decision Theory in Chemotherapy

1IntreductionTheliteratUreonmulti-Criteriondecisionmaking(MCDM)problemshas~tremendouslyintherecentpast.TwomajorareashaveevolvedwhiChbothconcentrateondecisionmakingwithseveralcriteria:multiobjectivedecisionmaking(MODM)andmulti-attributedecisionmaking(MADM).TheformerconcentratesoncontinuousdecisionspaceandthelatterfocusesonproblemswithdiscreteSPace.FuzzysettheoryhascontributedtoMODMproblemsaswellastheMADMProblems.ThegeneralMODMproblemcanbedeft.edLllasfollows:Twostagescangenerallybe…