Nearest Neighbor Classification Rule for Mixtures of Discrete and Continuous Random Variables

In this paper very simple nonparametric classification rule for mixtures of discrete and continuous random variables is described. It is based on the method of nearest neighbor proposed by Cover and Hart (1967). The bounds on the limit of the nearest neighbor rule risks are given. Both lower and upper bound depend on the Bayes risk and the loss function. Finally the method is compared with other existing methods on some practical data set.     

Progeny testing for recessive genes: procedures and interpretations

Summary Methods for calculating the probability of detecting a carrier of a recessive gene by utilizing matings among related individuals are presented for single and litter bearing species. The confidence level for detection of heterozygosity depends upon: (1) the genetic relationship between mates, (2) the number of mates per male and the number of offspring per mate, (3) whether an estimate of recessive gene frequency before selection is available and (4) the magnitude of that frequency. Methods of computing probability of heterozygosity vs homozygosity utilizing Bayes theorem also are presented. In the conventional progeny test method, a sire initially is assumed heterozygous before calculations are made, but no prior information concerning his probable genotype is utilized. In the method using Bayes theorem, prior sources of information from relatives or from estimates of population allele frequency are utilized. This method gives the exact probability that a sire is not a carrier, given prior information and that he produces all normal offspring. These methods could be used in any sexually reproducing species to identify not only detrimental genes but beneficial genes as well.     

Estimation of uncertainties in X-ray refinement results by use of perturbed structures

The uncertainties in the refined parameters for a 1.5-A X-ray structure of carbon-monoxy (FeII) myoglobin are estimated by combining energy minimization with least-squares refinement against the X-ray data. The energy minimizations, done without reference to the X-ray data, provide perturbed structures which are used to restart conventional X-ray refinement. The resulting refined structures have the same, or better, R-factor and stereochemical parameters as the original X-ray structure, but deviate from it by 0.13 A rms for the backbone atoms and 0.31 A rms for the sidechain atoms. Atoms interacting with a disordered sidechain, Arg 45 CD3, are observed to have larger positional uncertainties. The uncertainty in the B-factors, within the isotropic harmonic motion approximation, is estimated to be 15%. The resulting X-ray structures are more consistent with the energy parameters used in simulations.     

Polar hydrogen positions in proteins: Empirical energy placement and neutron diffraction comparison

A method for the prediction of hydrogen positions in proteins is presented. The method is based on the knowledge of the heavy atom positions obtained, for instance, from X-ray crystallography. It employs an energy minimization limited to the environment of the hydrogen atoms bound to a common heavy atom or to a single water molecule. The method is not restricted to proteins and can be applied without modification to nonpolar hydrogens and to nucleic acids. The method has been applied to the neutron diffraction structures of trypsin ribonuclease A, and bovine pancreatic trypsin inhibitor. A comparison of the constructed and the observed hydrogen positions shows few deviations except in situations in which several energetically similar conformations are possible. Analysis of the potential energy of rotation of Lys amino and Ser, Thr, Tyr hydroxyl groups reveals that the conformations of lowest intrinsic torsion energies are statistically favored in both the crystal and the constructed structures.     

Finding the maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) in a Bayesian taxonomic key is NP-hard

As an alternative to dichotomous keys, tabular keys are used for taxonomic identification. With the use of computers, keys based on the Bayes formula can also be made available more widely. For the development of a key, the maximum a posterior probability (MAP) for a taxon is important because it allows to evaluate the quality of a key. If it is low, the taxon is hard to distinguish from other taxa. In this paper, we show that finding MAP in a Bayesian key is NP-hard. Estimates for MAP or other measures have to be used for the estimation of the quality of a Bayesian key.     

Significant increase in natural disturbance impacts on European forests since 1950

Over the last decades, the natural disturbance is increasingly putting pressure on European forests. Shifts in disturbance regimes may compromise forest functioning and the continuous provisioning of ecosystem services to society, including their climate change mitigation potential. Although forests are central to many European policies, we lack the long-term empirical data needed for thoroughly understanding disturbance dynamics, modeling them, and developing adaptive management strategies. Here, we present a unique database of >170,000 records of ground-based natural disturbance observations in European forests from 1950 to 2019. Reported data confirm a significant increase in forest disturbance in 34 European countries, causing on an average of 43.8 million m³ of disturbed timber volume per year over the 70-year study period. This value is likely a conservative estimate due to under-reporting, especially of small-scale disturbances. We used machine learning techniques for assessing the magnitude of unreported disturbances, which are estimated to be between 8.6 and 18.3 million m³/year. In the last 20 years, disturbances on average accounted for 16% of the mean annual harvest in Europe. Wind was the most important disturbance agent over the study period (46% of total damage), followed by fire (24%) and bark beetles (17%). Bark beetle disturbance doubled its share of the total damage in the last 20 years. Forest disturbances can profoundly impact ecosystem services (e.g., climate change mitigation), affect regional forest resource provisioning and consequently disrupt long-term management planning objectives and timber markets. We conclude that adaptation to changing disturbance regimes must be placed at the core of the European forest management and policy debate. Furthermore, a coherent and homogeneous monitoring system of natural disturbances is urgently needed in Europe, to better observe and respond to the ongoing changes in forest disturbance regimes.