长江中游地区农业生态效率空间关联网络演化及驱动因素

厘清农业生态效率空间关联的网络特征及驱动因素对践行绿色发展理念、实现区域协同治理具有重要意义。基于2001-2019年长江中游地区38个地级市的面板数据,采用超效率至强有效前沿最近距离(MINDS)模型测度各地级市的农业生态效率,运用引力模型对长江中游地区农业生态效率的空间关联关系进行识别,进而利用社会网络分析方法和二次指派程序(QAP)方法揭示其网络结构演化特征和驱动因素。研究表明:(1)长江中游地区农业生态效率的空间关联关系表现出复杂的网络结构形态,空间关联网络具有高通达性且等级结构趋于松散,但网络稳定性却趋于下降;(2)武汉市和长沙市在空间关联网络中居核心地位,既扮演中心行动者角色又兼具"中介"和"桥梁"功能;岳阳市、黄石市等省际边界地级市在网络中则扮演边缘行动者角色;(3)空间关联网络核心-边缘结构由"十五"时期的"大聚集、小分散"演变为"十三五"时期的"大分散、小聚集",核心区由中部聚集转变为向四周发散;(4)地理空间的邻接、地区农业产业地位、财政支出、经济发展水平的相近以及交通运输水平的差异均有助于空间关联网络的形成。     

基于绿色GDP和生态足迹的江西省生态效率动态变化研究

生态效率是循环经济与可持续发展的有效测度,其测度方法一直是相关研究领域的热点和难点。鉴于绿色GDP能反映出剔除资源损耗和生态环境影响的国民经济净收益,生态足迹则更能全面地衡量经济发展中消耗的各种物质、能源以及带来的环境影响,基于WBCSD提出的生态效率定义及核算方法,创新性地从绿色GDP和生态足迹的视角改进生态效率度量模型,并以江西省为研究对象,对其2000—2015年间的生态效率变化轨迹及成因进行衡量与分析。结果表明:(1)2000—2015年江西省单位面积生态足迹的绿色GDP即生态效率总体呈上升趋势,15年来提升了4.57倍,与此同时,绿色GDP、生态足迹也呈上升趋势,但绿色GDP的增速明显高于生态足迹的增速;(2)江西省绿色GDP占总的GDP的比例处于不规则波动状态,平均为84.61%,其中自然资源损耗价值、环境退化损失价值和资源环境改善效益也呈不规则波动,三者皆呈现出先上升后下降的趋势,其中自然资源损耗对绿色GDP的影响较为显著;(3)江西省生态足迹不断增加,总生态足迹15年来增加了83.6%,年平均增长率为4.26%,从生态足迹构成来看,各土地利用类型生态足迹均呈波动上升趋势,其中牧草地足迹增长最为显著;(4)江西省生态足迹的主要类型是牧草地足迹、耕地足迹和化石能源用地足迹,其中牧草地足迹比重最大,并且保持波动上升趋势,其次是耕地和化石能源用地足迹,但两者比重均呈小幅下降趋势。从生态效率度量模型的创新性、适应性和生态效率的提高途径等方面进行了详细的探讨。     

Quantitative Ecological Risk Analysis by Evaluating China's Eco-Efficiency and Its Determinants

Industrial production can produce large amounts of harmful by-products, causing serious pollution and ecological risk. In addition, if government regulations are subjected into the industries, huge cost risk will be faced. This article adopts a two-stage slack-based undesirable-output data envelope analysis (DEA) model to measure the eco-efficiency of China. In the first stage, we analyze the eco-efficiency of each province of China, and in the second stage, we employed a truncated bootstrap method to understand the determinants of eco-efficiency. The results indicate that whereas the eco-efficiency of the eastern region was the highest, that of the western region was the lowest. The western region's economy lagged behind that of other regions, and its environment suffered from heavy pollution. It was found that the level of industrialization did not contribute to eco-efficiency. However, promotion of the service industry, investment for the environment, and regional innovation have positive effects on eco-efficiency.     

国外旅游生态效率优化与管理

旅游生态效率概念采用定量化方法对旅游业经济、环境影响进行分析,成为旅游业可持续发展评价的重要工具。基于可持续理论的旅游生态效率优化管理方案不断涌现,相关利益主体应用较多的有环境管理系统、旅游生态标签、清洁生产理念、旅游生态效率中心、21世纪地方议程等。在旅游企业日常运营中积极推动生态效率优化管理,是贯彻绿色发展理念,提高目的地旅游经济、环境绩效的一种新思路。从可持续背景下旅游生态效率优化模型入手,系统化分析了国外旅游生态效率优化管理方案的内容与特征。其中,环境管理系统在目的地层面为旅游生态效率优化设计了一套评估管理流程,旅游生态标签为目的地生态效率水平提供了可视化标志符号,21世纪地方议程为旅游可持续发展提供一致性整合方案,清洁生产理念是一种基于生态效率优化的长期战略,旅游生态效率中心作为非营利性机构有利于中小企业获得较好的环境绩效表现。国外旅游生态效率优化管理方案特征明显、设计合理、管理科学,对我国目的地旅游生态效率优化提升具有重要的借鉴作用。     

基于地理探测器的中国农业生态效率时空分异及其影响因素

研究农业生态效率的时空分异及其影响因素对实现中国农业生态高质量发展具有重要意义。基于2000—2018年中国30个省/区/市的面板数据,采用超效率SBM模型测算省际农业生态效率,在时间序列、空间可视化及趋势面分析揭示农业生态效率时空演变规律的基础上,进一步利用地理探测器模型识别影响农业生态效率空间分异的主导因子及其交互作用。结果表明: 2000—2018年,中国农业生态效率整体呈现稳定上升的趋势,但仍然处于较低水平,存在较大提升空间;中国农业生态效率具有显著的空间分异特征,总体上呈现出东西部地区较高、而中部地区较低的空间分布格局;中国农业生态效率的空间分异受到农业资源禀赋、社会经济、自然生态环境等多种因素的影响,不同因子对农业生态效率空间分异的影响存在明显差异且因子间交互作用会增强其空间分异。综上,要关注农业生态效率时空分异的主导因子,并注重区域间的协同合作,以实现农业的高质量发展。     

Allocation in recycling systems

‘Design for Recycling’ and dematerialization by enhancing the durability of products are major aspects of the quest for sustainable products. This article presents an LCA-based model for the integrated analyses of the product chain, its recycling systems, and its waste treatment systems at the ‘End of Life’ stage. The model is an extension of the EVR (Eco-costs/Value Ratio) model which has been published in this journal (Vogtländer et al. 2001), but can also be applied to other life cycle interpretation models, since the model as such is not restricted to the use of the eco-costs as a single indicator. The model has been developed to evaluate the design alternatives of complex products like buildings and cars. These products comprise several subsystems, each with its own special solution at the End of Life stage: Extending of the product life, object renovation, re-use of components, re-use of materials, useful application of waste materials, immobilization with and without useful applications, incineration with and without energy recovery, land fill. Since complex product systems always comprise a combination of these design alternatives, a methodology is given to calculate and allocate the eco-costs of the total system in order to select the best solution for sustainability. The methodology is characterized by:

1. A main allocation model of the recycling flow based on physical relationships,
2. a strict separation of the market value, the costs and the ecocosts in the system,
3. a main allocation model for extension of lifetime based on ‘depreciation of eco-costs’, parallel to economic depreciation.

     

Improving Energy Efficiency by Five Percent and More per Year?

Reduction of specific energy consumption by 1% to 2% per year is typically what is considered feasible for end-use energy applications. This article tries to answer the question of whether much higher rates, for example 5% and more, are feasible for new equipment, installations, and buildings.
After examining some end-use functions in industry, buildings, and the transport sector, it is concluded that for the foreseeable future—that is, not more than 10 to 20 years into the future—such high rates of reduction of specific energy consumption are indeed possible. For the longer term, no definitive proof is available, but there are also no indications that such high rates could not be maintained.
The effect of the reduction of specific energy consumption on total energy use depends on the growth of energy-using activities and on the replacement rates of capital stock. Taking these into account, it is estimated that for industrialized countries a reduction of absolute total energy use by 50% in 50 years compared with the current levels is possible.
Such a reduction requires a huge effort in innovation; however, the possibilities for stimulating innovation seem not to be exhausted yet.     

The Ecological Footprint Intensity of National Economies

At least three perspectives—industrial ecology (IE), ecological modernization theory (EMT), and the “environmental Kuznets curve” (EKC)—emphasize the potential for sustainability via refinements in production systems that dramatically reduce the environmental impacts of economic development. Can improvements in efficiency counterbalance environmental impacts stemming from the scale of production? To address this question we analyze cross‐national variation in the ecological footprint (EF) per unit of gross domestic product (GDP). The EF is a widely recognized indicator of human pressure on the environment. The EF of a nation is the amount of land area that would be required to produce the resources it consumes and to absorb the wastes it generates. The most striking finding of our analyses is that there is limited variation across nations in EF per unit of GDP. This indicates limited plasticity in the levels of EF intensity or eco‐efficiency among nations, particularly among affluent nations. EF intensity is lowest (ecoefficiency is highest) in affluent nations, but the level of efficiency in these nations does not appear to be of sufficient magnitude to compensate for their large productive capacities. These results suggest that modernization and economic development will be insufficient, in themselves, to bring about the ecological sustainability of societies.     

基于碳排放核算的中国区域旅游业生态效率测度及比较研究

旅游业作为国民经济发展的战略性支柱产业在区域发展中具有重要作用。借鉴生态效率的基本思想,考虑区域能源消费结构差异,使用自下而上的方法将旅游交通、旅游住宿与游憩活动碳排放进行加总估算出2000—2013年中国旅游业碳排放量;接着运用单一比值法计算出2000—2013年中国及各地区旅游业生态效率值,利用变异系数、莫兰指数对测度结果进行分析并与可持续发展生态效率值进行比较。研究结果表明:(1)2000—2013年,中国旅游业碳排放量不断增加,从2000年的1202.71万t增加到2013年的4151.57万t。旅游业部门之间碳排放量差异较大,尤其是旅游交通部门占到旅游业碳排放量的90%左右;(2)得益于2000—2013年旅游业发展的促进政策,中国及各地区旅游业生态效率总体上呈现不断改善的趋势,中国旅游业生态效率由2000年0.1193 kgCO_2-e/$下降到0.0309 kgCO_2-e/$。(3)时间维度上,中国旅游业生态效率的区域不平衡问题仍然存在,相比于2000年旅游业生态效率变异系数0.7114,2013年的变异系数反而增加到0.7483;空间维度上,各地区旅游业生态效率聚集模式发生了明显变化,莫兰指数由0.3036减少到0.0278。(4)通过将测度结果进行比较,中国旅游业自2000年开始进入可持续发展阶段,中国旅游业的整体可持续水平要优于其他产业,各地区的旅游业在2010年全部进入可持续发展状态。最后,对结果进行了讨论并提出旅游业生态效率的优化应从旅游收入增加与旅游业减排两方面进行。     

Fostering Industrial Symbiosis With Agent-Based Simulation and Participatory Modeling

The sciences of industrial ecology, complex systems, and adaptive management are intimately related, since they deal with flows and dynamic interdependencies between system elements of various kinds. As such, the tool kit of complex systems science could enrich our understanding of how industrial ecosystems might evolve over time. In this article, I illustrate how an important tool of complex systems science— agent-based simulation —can help to identify those potential elements of an industrial ecosystem that could work together to achieve more eco-efficient outcomes. For example, I show how agent-based simulation can generate cost-efficient energy futures in which groups of firms behave more eco-efficiently by introducing strategically located clusters of renewable, low-emissions, distributed generation. I then explain how role-playing games and participatory modeling can build trust and reduce conflict about the sharing of common-pool resources such as water and energy among small clusters of evolving agents. Collective learning can encourage potential industrial partners to gradually cooperate by exchanging by-products and/or sharing common infrastructure by dint of their close proximity. This kind of coevolutionary learning, aided by participatory modeling, could help to bring about industrial symbiosis.