Shorebird Abundance Estimates in Interior Alaska

Interior Alaska, USA, is the least-studied region in Alaska for breeding shorebirds because of challenging accessibility and expectations of low densities and abundances. We estimated lowland and upland shorebird population sizes on 370,420 ha of military lands in interior Alaska boreal forest from May–July 2016 and 2017. We modified the Program for Regional and International Shorebird Monitoring (PRISM) protocol used elsewhere in Alaska and incorporated a probability-based sampling design and dependent double-observer methods. We pooled all lowland shorebird and all upland shorebird observations and estimated abundance using Huggins closed captures models in Program MARK. Estimated abundances of all lowland and upland shorebirds were 42,239 ± 13,431 (SE) and 3,523 ± 494, respectively. The survey area is important for shorebirds in Alaska. We estimate that military lands in interior Alaska support 45,762 ± 13,925 shorebirds, including 7 species of conservation concern. Higher abundance of lowland shorebirds was best explained by lower elevation, lower percent scrub canopy, and higher percent water on plots. Higher abundance of upland shorebirds was best explained by higher elevation and increased distance to wetland. Our modified Arctic PRISM protocol was effective for surveys in the boreal forest and we recommend continued use of method modifications for future shorebird surveys in boreal forests. Identifying baseline abundances of shorebirds using interior Alaska is an important step in monitoring distributional shifts and potential future population declines. © 2020 The Authors. The Journal of Wildlife Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Wildlife Society.     

Estimating the Breeding Population of Long-Billed Curlew in the United States

ABSTRACT Determining population size and long-term trends in population size for species of high concern is a priority of international, national, and regional conservation plans. Long-billed curlews (Numenius americanus) are a species of special concern in North America due to apparent declines in their population. Because long-billed curlews are not adequately monitored by existing programs, we undertook a 2-year study with the goals of 1) determining present long-billed curlew distribution and breeding population size in the United States and 2) providing recommendations for a long-term long-billed curlew monitoring protocol. We selected a stratified random sample of survey routes in 16 western states for sampling in 2004 and 2005, and we analyzed count data from these routes to estimate detection probabilities and abundance. In addition, we evaluated habitat along roadsides to determine how well roadsides represented habitat throughout the sampling units. We estimated there were 164,515 (SE=42,047) breeding long-billed curlews in 2004, and 109,533 (SE=31,060) breeding individuals in 2005. These estimates far exceed currently accepted estimates based on expert opinion. We found that habitat along roadsides was representative of long-billed curlew habitat in general. We make recommendations for improving sampling methodology, and we present power curves to provide guidance on minimum sample sizes required to detect trends in abundance.     

Separating Components of the Detection Process With Combined Methods: An Example With Northern Bobwhite

Abstract: There are various methods of estimating detection probabilities for avian point counts. Distance and multiple-observer methods require the sometimes unlikely assumption that all birds in the population are available (i.e., sing or are visible) during a count, but the time-of-detection method allows for the possibility that some birds are unavailable during the count. We combined the dependent double-observer method with the time-of-detection method and obtained field-based estimates of the components of detection probability for northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus). Our approach was a special case of Pollock's robust capture-recapture design where the probability that a bird does not sing is analogous to the probability that an animal is a temporary emigrant. Top models indicated that observers' detection probabilities were similar (0.78–0.84) if bobwhite were available, but bobwhite only had an approximately 0.61 probability of being available during a 2.5-minute sampling interval. Additionally, observers' detection probabilities increased substantially after the initial encounter with an individual bobwhite (analogous to a trap-happy response on the part of the observer). A simulated data set revealed that the combined method was precise when availability and detection given availability were substantially lower. Combined methods approaches can provide critical information for researchers and land managers to make decisions regarding survey length and personnel requirements for point-count-based surveys.     

A Double-Observer Method to Estimate Detection Rate During Aerial Waterfowl Surveys

Abstract We evaluated double-observer methods for aerial surveys as a means to adjust counts of waterfowl for incomplete detection. We conducted our study in eastern Canada and the northeast United States utilizing 3 aerial-survey crews flying 3 different types of fixed-wing aircraft. We reconciled counts of front- and rear-seat observers immediately following an observation by the rear-seat observer (i.e., on-the-fly reconciliation). We evaluated 6 a priori models containing a combination of several factors thought to influence detection probability including observer, seat position, aircraft type, and group size. We analyzed data for American black ducks (Anas rubripes) and mallards (A. platyrhynchos), which are among the most abundant duck species in this region. The best-supported model for both black ducks and mallards included observer effects. Sample sizes of black ducks were sufficient to estimate observer-specific detection rates for each crew. Estimated detection rates for black ducks were 0.62 (SE = 0.10), 0.63 (SE = 0.06), and 0.74 (SE = 0.07) for pilot-observers, 0.61 (SE = 0.08), 0.62 (SE = 0.06), and 0.81 (SE = 0.07) for other front-seat observers, and 0.43 (SE = 0.05), 0.58 (SE = 0.06), and 0.73 (SE = 0.04) for rear-seat observers. For mallards, sample sizes were adequate to generate stable maximum-likelihood estimates of observer-specific detection rates for only one aerial crew. Estimated observer-specific detection rates for that crew were 0.84 (SE = 0.04) for the pilot-observer, 0.74 (SE = 0.05) for the other front-seat observer, and 0.47 (SE = 0.03) for the rear-seat observer. Estimated observer detection rates were confounded by the position of the seat occupied by an observer, because observers did not switch seats, and by land-cover because vegetation and landform varied among crew areas. Double-observer methods with on-the-fly reconciliation, although not without challenges, offer one viable option to account for detection bias in aerial waterfowl surveys where birds are distributed at low density in remote areas that are inaccessible by ground crews. Double-observer methods, however, estimate only detection rate of animals that are potentially observable given the survey method applied. Auxiliary data and methods must be considered to estimate overall detection rate.     

Detection Probabilities for Ground-Based Breeding Waterfowl Surveys

ABSTRACT Current methods for conducting ground-based surveys of breeding waterfowl pairs make the unlikely assumption that detection probabilities are constant and approach 100%. To test this assumption, we conducted independent double-observer pair surveys in North Dakota, USA, to evaluate sources of variation in detection probabilities for 8 common species of prairie-nesting ducks. An experienced observer had 0.911 detection probability averaged over all 8 species (range = 0.866-0.944) versus 0.790 (range = 0.537-0.890) for a novice observer. Detection probabilities also varied substantially among species, but patterns were not consistent between observers. Detection probabilities declined as number of ducks per wetland increased, presumably due to difficulty in identifying large numbers of flushing ducks. Other covariates affecting detection probabilities included size of social groups, precipitation, survey methodology (roadside vs. walk-up), cloud cover, time of day, and amount of wetland vegetation, but these covariates only affected detection probabilities by 2–5%. Our results demonstrated that the assumption of 100% detection probabilities for ground-based waterfowl counts was clearly false and surveys based on this erroneous assumption underestimated population size by 10–29%. We recommend that future investigators measure detection probabilities explicitly by using double-observer methodologies.     

A novel use of passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags as nest markers

ABSTRACT.   Double-observer methodology requires independent collection of data to accurately estimate population parameters. Use of visual nest markers to facilitate matching, relocating, and monitoring nests as part of a double-observer study violates this assumption, but few reliable alternatives exist, especially when working with cryptic nests and high nest densities in homogeneous habitat. We used passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags to nonvisually mark the nests of ground-nesting birds at the Yukon Delta National Wildlife Refuge in western Alaska in a double-observer study of nest density. We marked 70 nests with PIT tags and naïve observers subsequently detected tags at 44 of 50 re-scanned nests (88% correct identification). Failed detections were likely due to either suboptimal tag orientation or tags falling through nest material, and such failures may be an inherent, but uncommon, feature of this nest-marking technique. PIT tags facilitated nest monitoring among independent observers, uniquely and reliably marked nests, provided a minimum of cues to potential nest predators, and allowed us to estimate densities in a double-observer framework while not violating assumptions. These tags should be useful in other studies of nesting birds where nonvisual, reliable nest markers are needed, and they provide a new tool for double-observer studies.     

A Population Estimate for Golden Eagles in the Western United States

ABSTRACT Researchers have suggested golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) populations may be declining in portions of their range. However, there are few baseline data describing golden eagle populations across their range in the western United States. We used aerial line transect distance methodology with a double-observer modification to estimate golden eagle population numbers in 4 bird conservation regions of the western United States. We conducted surveys from 16 August to 8 September 2003, after most golden eagles had fledged and before fall migration. The goal of our sampling strategy was to provide >80% power (α = 0.1) to detect an annual rate of total population change >3% per year over a 20-year period. We observed 172 golden eagles across 148 transects and estimated 27,392 golden eagles (90% CI: 21,352-35,140) occurred in the study area during the late summer and early fall of 2003. Following the surveys, we used Monte Carlo simulation to determine the statistical power to detect trends in the golden eagle populations if yearly surveys were continued over a 20-year monitoring period. The simulation indicated the desired power could be achieved under the current methodology and sample size. The methods utilized in this study can be implemented for other raptor species when population estimates that include nonbreeding members of a population are needed. The results of this study can be utilized by professionals to help manage golden eagle populations and to develop conservation strategies.