Impacts of climate warming and habitat loss on extinctions at species' low-latitude range boundaries

Polewards expansions of species' distributions have been attributed to climate warming, but evidence for climate‐driven local extinctions at warm (low latitude/elevation) boundaries is equivocal. We surveyed the four species of butterflies that reach their southern limits in Britain. We visited 421 sites where the species had been recorded previously to determine whether recent extinctions were primarily due to climate or habitat changes. Coenonympha tullia had become extinct at 52% of study sites and all losses were associated with habitat degradation. Aricia artaxerxes was extinct from 50% of sites, with approximately one‐third to half of extinctions associated with climate‐related factors and the remainder with habitat loss. For Erebia aethiops (extinct from 24% of sites), approximately a quarter of the extinctions were associated with habitat and three‐quarters with climate. For Erebia epiphron, extinctions (37% of sites) were attributed mainly to climate with almost no habitat effects. For the three species affected by climate, range boundaries retracted 70–100 km northwards (A. artaxerxes, E. aethiops) and 130–150 m uphill (E. epiphron) in the sample of sites analysed. These shifts are consistent with estimated latitudinal and elevational temperature shifts of 88 km northwards and 98 m uphill over the 19‐year study period. These results suggest that the southern/warm range margins of some species are as sensitive to climate change as are northern/cool margins. Our data indicate that climate warming has been of comparable importance to habitat loss in driving local extinctions of northern species over the past few decades; future climate warming is likely to jeopardize the long‐term survival of many northern and mountain species.     

Paludification and Forest Retreat in Northern Oceanic Environments

Examination of temperature variations over the past centuryfor Europe and the Arctic from northern Norway to Siberia suggeststhat variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation are associatedwith an increase in oceanicity in certain maritime regions.A southward depression of the treeline in favour of wet heaths,bogs and wetland tundra communities is also observed in northernoceanic environments. The physiological basis for this changein ecological succession from forest to bog is discussed inrelation to the long-term effects of flooding on tree survival.The heightened values currently detected in the North AtlanticOscillation Index, together with rising winter temperatures,and increased rainfall in many areas in northern Europe, presentsan increasing risk of paludification with adverse consequencesfor forest regeneration, particularly in areas with oceanicclimates. Climatic warming in oceanic areas may increase thearea covered by bogs and, contrary to general expectations,lead to a retreat rather than an advance in the northern limitof the boreal forest. High water-table levels are not automaticallydetrimental to forest survival as can be seen in swamp, bottomlandand mangrove forests. Consequently, the inhibitory effects offlooding on tree survival and regeneration in northern regionsshould not be uncritically accepted as merely due to high waterlevels. Evidence is discussed which suggests that physiologicaland ecological factors may interact to inhibit forest regenerationin habitats where there is a risk of prolonged winter-floodingcombined with warmer winters and cool moist summers.     

Pre-adaptation of Arctic Plants to Climate Change*

Re-appraisal of high latitude ice cover during the Weichselian and the recent discovery of pre-Holocene plant communities in Novaya Zemlya and Northern Norway suggests that the contemporary Arctic flora may have had a longer time span in its occupation of high latitude sites than has hitherto been recognised. The present-day Arctic flora in some regions may therefore have derived at least some of its genetic inheritance from populations that survived in ice-free refugia in the high Arctic polar deserts during the latter stages of the Weichselian glaciation. Increasing evidence for sudden changes in climate at high latitudes in the past, suggests that Arctic vegetation would have been subjected to rapid climatic warming if it had maintained a presence in these regions during the late Weichselian. A review of what is known about plant survival in the high Arctic since pre-Holocene times, coupled with an examination of some of the physiological properties of modern populations in these regions is presented in an attempt to ascertain if high Arctic plants possess mechanisms which facilitate their capacity to respond either phenotypically or physiologically to climatic change.     

Woody plants and the prediction of climate-change impacts on bird diversity

Current methods of assessing climate-induced shifts of species distributions rarely account for species interactions and usually ignore potential differences in response times of interacting taxa to climate change. Here, we used species-richness data from 1005 breeding bird and 1417 woody plant species in Kenya and employed model-averaged coefficients from regression models and median climatic forecasts assembled across 15 climate-change scenarios to predict bird species richness under climate change. Forecasts assuming an instantaneous response of woody plants and birds to climate change suggested increases in future bird species richness across most of Kenya whereas forecasts assuming strongly lagged woody plant responses to climate change indicated a reversed trend, i.e. reduced bird species richness. Uncertainties in predictions of future bird species richness were geographically structured, mainly owing to uncertainties in projected precipitation changes. We conclude that assessments of future species responses to climate change are very sensitive to current uncertainties in regional climate-change projections, and to the inclusion or not of time-lagged interacting taxa. We expect even stronger effects for more specialized plant–animal associations. Given the slow response time of woody plant distributions to climate change, current estimates of future biodiversity of many animal taxa may be both biased and too optimistic.     

The ecology and distribution of lichens in tropical deciduous and evergreen forests of northern Thailand

During three years of research on epiphytic lichen communities as indicators of environmental change in northern Thailand plots were set up in a range of forest types between 400 and 1600 m in 1991/2 and revisited in 1993. Other areas were visited in 1993 and collections made in a wider range of geographical, altitudinal and vegetation conditions in Thailand. From this data factors influencing the distribution of lichens in a monsoon climate are outlined and characteristic components of the lichen flora given at family, generic and where possible specific level. Dominant taxa of the montane forests include hygrophilous macrolichens of the 'Lobarion' that are also a characteristic component of old growth fagaceous forests in Europe, whereas the evergreen forests are dominated by moisture-dependent crustose taxa with a trentepohlioid photobiont, and the deciduous dipterocarp forests by often brightly coloured xerophytic lichens with a trebouxioid photobiont. Taxa are proposed as indicators of forest type including those that are indicators of old-growth forests and of disturbance. Quantitative recording of selected taxa at genus and species level is suggested to estimate rates of change in monsoon forests in southeast Asia.     

Intraspecific responses to climate in Pinus sylvestris

Abstract Five population-specific response functions were developed from quadratic models for 110 populations of Pinus sylvestris growing at 47 planting sites in Eurasia and North America. The functions predict 13 year height from climate: degree-days > 5 °C; mean annual temperature; degree-days < 0 °C; summer-winter temperature differential; and a moisture index, the ratio of degree-days > 5 °C to mean annual precipitation. Validation of the response functions with two sets of independent data produced for all functions statistically significant simple correlations with coefficients as high as 0.81 between actual and predicted heights. The response functions described the widely different growth potentials typical of natural populations and demonstrated that these growth potentials have different climatic optima. Populations nonetheless tend to inhabit climates colder than their optima, with the disparity between the optimal and inhabited climates becoming greater as the climate becomes more severe. When driven by a global warming scenario of the Hadley Center, the functions described short-term physiologic and long-term evolutionary effects that were geographically complex. The short-term effects should be negative in the warmest climates but strongly positive in the coldest. Long-term effects eventually should ameliorate the negative short-term impacts, enhance the positive, and in time, substantially increase productivity throughout most of the contemporary pine forests of Eurasia. Realizing the long-term gains will require redistribution of genotypes across the landscape, a process that should take up to 13 generations and therefore many years.     

Investigating the abundance and flight period of bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) over elevational gradients in Sitka spruce forests

1. A warming climate, as predicted under current climate change projections, is likely to influence the population dynamics of many forest insect species. Numerous bark beetle species in both Europe and North America have already responded to a warming climate by significantly expanding their geographical ranges.
2. The aim of the current study was to investigate how populations of bark beetles within stands of Sitka spruce, a widely planted non-native commercial plantation tree species in the U.K., were likely to respond to a warming climate. Experimental plots were established in stands of Sitka spruce over elevational gradients in two commercial forest plantations, and the abundance and emergence times of key bark beetle species were assessed over a 3-year period using flight interception traps. The air temperature difference between the lowest and highest experimental plot in each forest was consistently >1°C throughout the 3-year period.
3. In general, the abundance of the most dominant bark beetle species (e.g. Trypodendron, Dryocoetes, Hylastes spp.) was higher, and emergence times tended to be earlier in the year at the lower elevation plots, where temperatures were higher, although not all bark beetle species responded in the same manner.
4. The results of the study indicated that, under the projected future climate warming scenarios, monoculture Sitka spruce stands at low elevations may potentially be more vulnerable to significant outbreak events from existing or invasive bark beetle species. Hence, consideration of establishing more resilient forests of Sitka spruce by diversifying the species composition and structure of Sitka spruce stands is discussed.