Modeling Cumulative Effects of Climate and Development on Moose,Wolf, and Caribou Populations

Wildlife models focused solely on a single strong influence (e.g., habitat components, wildlife harvest) are limited in their ability to detect key mechanisms influencing population change. Instead, we propose integrated modeling in the context of cumulative effects assessment using multispecies population dynamics models linked to landscape-climate simulation at large spatial and temporal scales. We developed an integrated landscape and population simulation model using ALCES Online as the model-building platform, and the model accounted for key ecological components and relationships among moose (Alces alces), grey wolves (Canis lupus nubilus), and woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in northern Ontario, Canada. We simulated multiple scenarios over 5 decades (beginning 2020) to explore sensitivity to climate change and land use and assessed effects at multiple scales. The magnitude of effect and the relative importance of key factors (climate change, roads, and habitat) differed depending on the scale of assessment. Across the full extent of the study area (654,311km² [ecozonal scale]), the caribou population declined by 26% largely because of climate change and associated predator-prey response, which led to caribou range recession in the southern part of the study area. At the caribou range scale (108,378 km²), which focused on 2 herds in the northern part of the study area, climate change led to a 10% decline in the population and development led to an additional 7% decline. At the project scale (8,331 km²), which was focused more narrowly on the landscape surrounding 4 proposed mines, the caribou population declined by 29% largely in response to simulated development. Given that observed caribou population dynamics were sensitive to the cumulative effects of climate change, land use, interspecific interactions, and scale, insights from the analysis might not emerge under a less complex model. Our integrated modeling framework provides valuable support for broader regional assessments, including estimation of risk to caribou and Indigenous food security, and for developing and evaluating potential caribou recovery strategies. © 2021 The Authors. The Journal of Wildlife Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Wildlife Society.     

Characterization of <Emphasis Type="Italic">target</Emphasis> nuclear DNA from faeces reduces technical issues associated with the assumptions of low-quality and quantity template

Faecal material has increasingly become an important non-invasive source of DNA for wildlife population genetics. However, DNA from faecal sources can have issues associated with quantity (low-template and/or low target-to-total DNA ratio) and quality (degradation and/or low DNA-to-inhibitor ratio). A number of studies utilizing faecal material assume and compensate for the above properties with minimal characterization of quantity or quality of target DNA, which can unnecessarily increase the risk of downstream technical problems. Here, we present a protocol which quantifies faecal DNA using a two step approach: (1) estimating total DNA concentration using a Picogreen^TM fluorescence assay and (2) estimating target nuclear DNA concentration by comparing amplification products of field samples at suspected concentrations to those of control DNA at known concentrations. We applied this protocol to faecal material collected in the field from two species: woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus) and swift fox (Vulpes velox). Total DNA estimates ranged from 6.5 ng/μl to 28.6 ng/μl (X = 16.2 ng/μl) for the caribou extracts and 1.0–26.1 ng/μl (X = 7.5 ng/μl) for the swift fox extracts. Our results showed high concordance between total and target DNA estimates from woodland caribou faecal extracts, with only 10% of the samples showing relatively lower target-to-total DNA ratios. In contrast, DNA extracts from swift fox scat exhibited low target DNA yields, with only 38% (19 of 50) of the samples showing comparative target DNA amplification of at least 0.1 ng. With this information, we were able to estimate the amount of target DNA entered into PCR amplifications, and identify samples having target DNA below a lower threshold of 0.2 ng and requiring modification to genotyping protocols such as multiple tube amplification. Our results here also show that this approach can easily be adapted to other species where faeces are the primary source of DNA template.     

Modeling Sustainability of Arctic Communities: An Interdisciplinary Collaboration of Researchers and Local Knowledge Holders

How will climate change affect the sustainability of Arctic villages over the next 40 years? This question motivated a collaboration of 23 researchers and four Arctic communities (Old Crow, Yukon Territory, Canada; Aklavik, Northwest Territories, Canada; Fort McPherson, Northwest Territories, Canada; and Arctic Village, Alaska, USA) in or near the range of the Porcupine Caribou Herd. We drew on existing research and local knowledge to examine potential effects of climate change, petroleum development, tourism, and government spending cutbacks on the sustainability of four Arctic villages. We used data across eight disciplines to develop an Arctic Community Synthesis Model and a Web-based, interactive Possible Futures Model. Results suggested that climate warming will increase vegetation biomass within the herd’s summer range. However, despite forage increasing, the herd was projected as likely to decline with a warming climate because of increased insect harassment in the summer and potentially greater winter snow depths. There was a strong negative correlation between hypothetical, development-induced displacement of cows and calves from utilized calving grounds and calf survival during June. The results suggested that climate warming coupled with petroleum development would cause a decline in caribou harvest by local communities. Because the Synthesis Model inherits uncertainties associated with each component model, sensitivity analysis is required. Scientists and stakeholders agreed that (1) although simulation models are incomplete abstractions of the real world, they helped bring scientific and community knowledge together, and (2) relationships established across disciplines and between scientists and communities were a valuable outcome of the study. Additional project materials, including the Web-based Possible Futures Model, are available at http://www.taiga.net/sustain.     

Genetic variation in caribou and reindeer (Rangifer tarandus)

Genetic variation at seven microsatellite DNA loci was quantified in 19 herds of wild caribou and domestic reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) from North America, Scandinavia and Russia. There is an average of 2.0-6.6 alleles per locus and observed individual heterozygosity of 0.33-0.50 in most herds. A herd on Svalbard Island, Scandinavia, is an exception, with relatively few alleles and low heterozygosity. The Central Arctic, Western Arctic and Porcupine River caribou herds in Alaska have similar allele frequencies and comprise one breeding population. Domestic reindeer in Alaska originated from transplants from Siberia, Russia, more than 100 years ago. Reindeer in Alaska and Siberia have different allele frequencies at several loci, but a relatively low level of genetic differentiation. Wild caribou and domestic reindeer in Alaska have significantly different allele frequencies at the seven loci, indicating that gene flow between reindeer and caribou in Alaska has been limited.     

Modern and ancient DNA reveal recent partial replacement of caribou in the southwest Yukon

The long‐term persistence of forest‐dwelling caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) will probably be determined by management and conservation decisions. Understanding the evolutionary relationships between modern caribou herds, and how these relationships have changed through time will provide key information for the design of appropriate management strategies. To explore these relationships, we amplified microsatellite and mitochondrial markers from modern caribou from across the Southern Yukon, Canada, as well as mitochondrial DNA from Holocene specimens recovered from alpine ice patches in the same region. Our analyses identify a genetically distinct group of caribou composed of herds from the Southern Lakes region that may warrant special management consideration. We also identify a partial genetic replacement event occurring 1000 years before present, coincident with the deposition of the White River tephra and the Medieval Warm Period. These results suggest that, in the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures and climate variability, maintaining the ability of caribou herds to expand in numbers and range may be more important than protecting the survival of any individual, isolated sedentary forest‐dwelling herd.     

Body Size Variations in Caribou Ecotypes and Relationships With Demography

ABSTRACT In many vertebrates size is one of the most influential and variable individual characteristics and a strong determinant of reproductive success. Body size is generally density dependent and decreases when intraspecific competition increases. Frequent and long-distance movements increase energy expenditures and, therefore, may also influence body size, particularly in highly mobile species. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus, also known as reindeer) exhibit tremendous variation in size and movements and thus represent an excellent candidate species to test the relationships between body size, population size, and movements. We analyzed body measurements of adult female caribou from 7 herds of the Québec-Labrador Peninsula, Canada, and we related their morphology to population size, movements, and annual ranges. The herds represented 3 ecotypes (migratory, montane, and sedentary). Ecotypes and herds differed in size (length), shape (roundness), and movements. The sedentary ecotype was larger and moved 4 to 7 times less than the migratory ecotype in the 1990s. At the start of a demographic growth period in the early 1960s, migratory caribou from the Rivière-George (hereafter George) herd had longer mandibles than caribou of the sedentary ecotype. Mandible length in the George herd declined in the 1980s after rapid population growth, while individuals performed extensive movements and the herd's annual range increased. Migratory caribou then became shorter than sedentary caribou. After the George herd decline in the 1990s, mandible length increased again near levels of the 1980s. Caribou from the migratory Rivière-aux-Feuilles herd later showed a similar decline in mandible length during a period of population growth, associated with longer movements and increasing annual range. We hypothesize that the density-dependent effect observed on body size might have been exerted through summer habitat degradation and movement variations during herd growth. Our study has 2 important implications for caribou management: the distinctiveness of different populations and ecotypes, and the correlations between population trajectories and changes in body condition and habitat.     

Modeling the Western Arctic Caribou Herd During a Positive Growth Phase: Potential Effects of Wolves and Radiocollars

ABSTRACT Population modeling exercises can lead to both expected and unexpected results useful for wildlife research and management, even though inferences must often be qualitative, given underlying assumptions. Our main objective was to use empirical data on wolf (Canis lupus) kill rates and growth of the Western Arctic caribou (Rangifer tarandus) herd (WAH) of Alaska, USA, to assess the potential for predator regulation. We used available data and published literature to construct a deterministic density-dependent population model fitted to trends of the WAH from 1976 through 2003. By increasing wolf densities in the baseline model, we failed to reject the hypothesis that wolves at a density of 6.5 wolves per 1,000 km² could regulate a caribou herd at a density of 0.4 caribou per km². In addition, our model may be conservative by underestimating the regulatory potential of wolves. We suggest that this relatively simple predator-preysystem shows signs of a predation—food 2-state model. Elasticities from matrix models may be deceiving. Although herd growth is most sensitive to changes in adult female survival, survival of younger cohorts may be more easily influenced by natural conditions or management action. Management of the WAH near maximum sustained yield may not be attainable if desired, but modeling exercises such as this elucidate options. In conducting this research, we also discovered by Monte Carlo simulation that survival and productivity data from radiocollared females and calves were negatively biased and failed to predict herd growth. Thus, researchers should consider potential effects of neck collars on vital rates of female tundra caribou and concomitant offspring when using sample data to model population dynamics or test hypotheses.     

Woodland Caribou Extirpation and Anthropogenic Landscape Disturbance in Ontario

Abstract: The decline of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) has been attributed to anthropogenic landscape disturbances, but critical distance thresholds and time lags between disturbance and extirpation are unknown. Using a database of caribou presence and extirpation for northern Ontario, Canada, geo-coded to 10 times 10-km cells, we constructed logistic regression models to predict caribou extirpation based on distance to the nearest of each of 9 disturbance types: forest cutovers, fires, roads, utility corridors, mines, pits and quarries, lakes, trails, and rail lines. We used Akaike's Information Criterion to select parsimonious models and Receiver-Operating Characteristic curves to derive optimal thresholds. To deal with the effects of spatial autocorrelation on estimates of model significance, we used subsampling and restricted randomizations. Forest cutovers were the best predictor of caribou occupancy, with a tolerance threshold of 13 km to nearest cutover and a time lag of 2 decades between disturbance by cutting and caribou extirpation. Management of woodland caribou should incorporate buffers around habitat and requires long-term monitoring of range occupancy.     

Population size and major valleys explain microsatellite variation better than taxonomic units for caribou in western Canada

Identifying conservation units below the species level is becoming increasingly important, particularly when limited resources necessitate prioritization for conservation among such units. This problem is exemplified with caribou, a mammal with a circum-Arctic distribution that is exposed to a broad spectrum of ecological conditions, but is also declining in many parts of its range. We used microsatellite markers to evaluate the suitability of existing intra-specific taxonomic designations to act as population units for conservation and contrasted this with landscape features that were independent of taxonomy. We also quantified the relationship between genetic differentiation and subpopulation size, a factor that has been under-represented in landscape genetic research. Our data set included three subspecies and three ecotypes of caribou that varied in population size by five orders of magnitude. Our results indicated that genetic structure did not correspond to existing taxonomic designation, particularly at the level of ecotype. Instead, we found that major valleys and population size were the strongest factors associated with substructure. There was a negative exponential relationship between population size and F(ST) between pairs of adjacent subpopulations, suggesting that genetic drift was the mechanism causing the structure among the smallest subpopulations. A genetic assignment test revealed that movement among subpopulations was a fraction of the level needed to stabilize smaller subpopulations, indicating little chance for demographic rescue. Such results may be broadly applicable to landscape genetic studies, because population size and corresponding rates of drift have the potential to confound interpretations of landscape effects on population structure.     

Large herbivores limit CO2 uptake and suppress carbon cycle responses to warming in West Greenland

Changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle may ameliorate or exacerbate future climatic warming. Research on this topic has focused almost exclusively on abiotic drivers, whereas biotic factors, including trophic interactions, have received comparatively little attention. We quantified the singular and interactive effects of herbivore exclusion and simulated warming on ecosystem CO₂ exchange over two consecutive growing seasons in West Greenland. Exclusion of caribou and muskoxen over the past 8 years has led to dramatic increases in shrub cover, leaf area, ecosystem photosynthesis, and a nearly threefold increase in net C uptake. These responses were accentuated by warming, but only in the absence of herbivores. Carbon cycle responses to herbivore exclusion alone and combined with warming were driven by changes in gross ecosystem photosynthesis, as limited differences in ecosystem respiration were observed. Our results show that large herbivores can be of critical importance as mediators of arctic ecosystem responses to climate change.