Praying for Drought: Persistent Vulnerability and the Politics of Patronage in Ceará, Northeast Brazil

ABSTRACT   The phrase persistent vulnerability reflects the enduring relationship of the rural population in Ceará with a highly variable climate. Persistence underscores the historical and unyielding nature of this vulnerability. Yet contrary to once-catastrophic rates of mortality etched in a public consciousness, no one dies from severe droughts and few people flee them as in the past. Government relief and social transfers have become the institutionalized form of adaptation, giving way to the counterintuitive reality that drought stabilizes the food and income supply for poor people. We analyze how maladaptive risk reduction, which is embedded in clientilistic social relations, undermines resilience, and we examine pathways toward a more sustainable adaptive relationship.     

Sex ratios under asymmetrical local mate competition in the parasitoid wasp Nasonia vitripennis

Sex ratio theory has proved remarkably useful in testing theadaptive nature of animal behavior. A particularly productivearea in this respect is Hamilton's theory of local mate competition(LMC), which has been extended in numerous directions to includegreater biological realism, allowing more detailed tests inspecific organisms. We have presented one such extension, termedasymmetrical LMC, which occurs when egg laying by females ona patch is asynchronous, and emerging males do not disperse,resulting in the extent of LMC on a patch varying over time.Our aim here is to test whether the parasitoid wasp Nasoniavitripennis responds to variation in the degree of asymmetricalLMC. Specifically, we show that females adjust their offspringsex ratios in response to (1) variation in the amount of asynchronyin emergence between broods on a patch and (2) the number andproportion of previously parasitized hosts on the patch. Ourresults provide qualitative support for the predictions of theory,suggesting new levels of complexity in the sex ratio behaviorof this much-studied organism. However, our results do not alwaysprovide quantitative support for theory, suggesting furthercomplexities that must be clarified.     

Evolutionary rescue by beneficial mutations in environments that change in space and time

A factor that may limit the ability of many populations to adapt to changing conditions is the rate at which beneficial mutations can become established. We study the probability that mutations become established in changing environments by extending the classic theory for branching processes. When environments change in time, under quite general conditions, the establishment probability is approximately twice the ‘effective selection coefficient’, whose value is an average that gives most weight to a mutant''s fitness in the generations immediately after it appears. When fitness varies along a gradient in a continuous habitat, increased dispersal generally decreases the chance a mutation establishes because mutations move out of areas where they are most adapted. When there is a patch of favourable habitat that moves in time, there is a maximum speed of movement above which mutations cannot become established, regardless of when and where they first appear. This critical speed limit, which is proportional to the mutation''s maximum selective advantage, represents an absolute constraint on the potential of locally adapted mutations to contribute to evolutionary rescue.     

Natural incorporation of mercury in bone

Mercury (Hg) is a highly toxic element that causes bone defects and malformations. Structure and surface analyses using quantitative x-ray diffraction using the Rietveld method, High-Resolution Transmission Electron Microscopy and nanodiffraction analyses, and Fourier-Transformed Infrared spectroscopy showed that bone enriched naturally with Hg (≤ 2.3 %) contained Hg₃PO₄ [(Hg₂)₃(PO₄)₂] and HgO. Bone [mostly as apatite, verified as carboxyapatite Ca₁₀(PO₄)₄(CO₃)₃(OH)₂(s)] and cinnabar (HgS) dissolved releasing Hg⁺ (existing as dimer Hg₂²⁺) and PO₄³⁻, both of which became immobilized as (Hg₂)₃(PO₄)₂. Besides, released Hg²⁺ became oxidized to form HgO. The outcome of this work is novel, provided that only a handful of stable compounds of Hg₂²⁺ are found in nature.     

Multi-lineage Lung Regeneration by Stem Cell Transplantation across Major Genetic Barriers

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What paths do advantageous alleles take during short‐term evolutionary change?

Combining experimental evolution with whole‐genome resequencing is a promising new strategy for investigating the dynamics of evolutionary change. Published studies that have resequenced laboratory‐selected populations of sexual organisms have typically focused on populations sampled at the end of an evolution experiment. These studies have attempted to associate particular alleles with phenotypic change and attempted to distinguish between different theoretical models of adaptation. However, neither the population used to initiate the experiment nor multiple time points sampled during the evolutionary trajectory are generally available for examination. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Orozco‐terWengel et al. (2012) take a significant step forward by estimating genome‐wide allele frequencies at the start, 15 generations into and at the end of a 37‐generation Drosophila experimental evolution study. The authors identify regions of the genome that have responded to laboratory selection and describe the temporal dynamics of allele frequency change. They identify two common trajectories for putatively adaptive alleles: alleles either gradually increase in frequency throughout the entire 37 generations or alleles plateau at a new frequency by generation 15. The identification of complex trajectories of alleles under selection contributes to a growing body of literature suggesting that simple models of adaptation, whereby beneficial alleles arise and increase in frequency unimpeded until they become fixed, may not adequately describe short‐term response to selection.     

Emerging infectious diseases and animal social systems

Emerging infectious diseases threaten a wide diversity of animals, and important questions remain concerning disease emergence in socially structured populations. We developed a spatially explicit simulation model to investigate whether—and under what conditions—disease-related mortality can impact rates of pathogen spread in populations of polygynous groups. Specifically, we investigated whether pathogen-mediated dispersal (PMD) can occur when females disperse after the resident male dies from disease, thus carrying infections to new groups. We also examined the effects of incubation period and virulence, host mortality and rates of background dispersal, and we used the model to investigate the spread of the virus responsible for Ebola hemorrhagic fever, which currently is devastating African ape populations. Output was analyzed using regression trees, which enable exploration of hierarchical and non-linear relationships. Analyses revealed that the incidence of disease in single-male (polygynous) groups was significantly greater for those groups containing an average of more than six females, while the total number of infected hosts in the population was most sensitive to the number of females per group. Thus, as expected, PMD occurs in polygynous groups and its effects increase as harem size (the number of females) increases. Simulation output further indicated that population-level effects of Ebola are likely to differ among multi-male–multi-female chimpanzees and polygynous gorillas, with larger overall numbers of chimpanzees infected, but more gorilla groups becoming infected due to increased dispersal when the resident male dies. Collectively, our results highlight the importance of social system on the spread of disease in wild mammals.     

Contrast-FEL—A Test for Differences in Selective Pressures at Individual Sites among Clades and Sets of Branches

A number of evolutionary hypotheses can be tested by comparing selective pressures among sets of branches in a phylogenetic tree. When the question of interest is to identify specific sites within genes that may be evolving differently, a common approach is to perform separate analyses on subsets of sequences and compare parameter estimates in a post hoc fashion. This approach is statistically suboptimal and not always applicable. Here, we develop a simple extension of a popular fixed effects likelihood method in the context of codon-based evolutionary phylogenetic maximum likelihood testing, Contrast-FEL. It is suitable for identifying individual alignment sites where any among the K≥2 sets of branches in a phylogenetic tree have detectably different ω ratios, indicative of different selective regimes. Using extensive simulations, we show that Contrast-FEL delivers good power, exceeding 90% for sufficiently large differences, while maintaining tight control over false positive rates, when the model is correctly specified. We conclude by applying Contrast-FEL to data from five previously published studies spanning a diverse range of organisms and focusing on different evolutionary questions.     

A Comparison of Bone Mineral Density and Its Predictors in HIV-Infected and HIV-Uninfected Older Men

ObjectiveBone health in older individuals with HIV infection has not been well studied. This study aimed to compare bone mineral density (BMD), trabecular bone score (TBS), and bone markers between HIV-infected men and age- and body mass index (BMI)-matched HIV-uninfected men aged ≥60 years. We investigated the associations of risk factors related to fracture with BMD, TBS, and bone markers in HIV-infected men.MethodsThis cross-sectional study included 45 HIV-infected men receiving antiretroviral therapy and 42 HIV-uninfected men. Medical history, BMD and TBS measurements, and laboratory tests related to bone health were assessed in all the participants. HIV-related factors known to be associated with bone loss were assessed in the HIV-infected men.ResultsThe mean BMD, TBS, and osteopenia or osteoporosis prevalence were similar among the cases and controls. The HIV-infected men had significantly higher mean N-terminal propeptide of type 1 procollagen and C-terminal cross-linking telopeptide of type I collagen levels. Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis demonstrated that low BMI (lumbar spine, P = .015; femoral neck, P = .018; and total hip, P = .005), high C-terminal cross-linking telopeptide of type I collagen concentration (total hip, P = .042; and TBS, P = .010), and low vitamin D supplementation (TBS, P = .035) were independently associated with low BMD and TBS.ConclusionIn older HIV-infected men with a low fracture risk, the mean BMD and TBS were similar to those of the age- and BMI-matched controls. The mean bone marker levels were higher in the HIV group. Traditional risk factors for fracture, including low BMI, high C-terminal cross-linking telopeptide of type I collagen level, and low vitamin D supplementation, were significant predictors of low BMD and TBS.     

Simulation of Y-chromosomal haplotype data

The non-recombining nature of the Y-chromosome determines the non-independence of alleles between loci. The evolution of short tandem repeat (STR) loci in the Y-chromosome is the result of different factors such as differential mutation rates, mutation modes, gene conversion, selection and demographic processes. The degree of correlation between loci is dependent on the magnitude of these processes. The simulation of data is a routine tool used for testing hypotheses in population and evolutionary studies. The most basic parameters hitherto used in lineage haplotype simulations are the allele frequency distributions and mutation rates, assuming either full independence or linkage between loci. In this study we introduce use of the Spearman correlation coefficient to estimate the degree of dependence between non-recombining loci. Then, both the interdependence between loci and the allele frequency distributions at multi-allelic loci are incorporated in an algorithm for simulating haplotypes. We illustrate the method using published and unpublished Y-chromosome STR data.