BLOEM: A spatially explicit model of bioenergy and carbon capture and storage,applied to Brazil

Bioenergy could play a major role in decarbonizing energy systems in the context of the Paris Agreement. Large-scale bioenergy deployment could be related to sustainability issues and requires major infrastructure investments. It, therefore, needs to be studied carefully. The Bioenergy and Land Optimization Spatially Explicit Model (BLOEM) presented here allows for assessing different bioenergy pathways while encompassing various dimensions that influence their optimal deployment. In this study, BLOEM was applied to the Brazilian context by coupling it with the Brazilian Land Use and Energy Systems (BLUES) model. This allowed investigating the most cost-effective ways of attending future bioenergy supply projections and studying the role of recovered degraded pasture lands in improving land availability in a sustainable and competitive manner. The results show optimizing for limiting deforestation and minimizing logistics costs results in different outcomes. It also indicates that recovering degraded pasture lands is attractive from both logistics and climate perspectives. The systemic approach of BLOEM provides spatial results, highlighting the trade-offs between crop allocation, land use and the logistics dynamics between production, conversion, and demand, providing valuable insights for regional and national climate policy design. This makes it a useful tool for mapping sustainable bioenergy value chain pathways.     

Comparisons of biomass,water use efficiency and water use strategies across five genomic groups of Populus and its hybrids

Genetic improvement and hybridization in the Populus genus have led to the development of genotypes exhibiting fast growth, high rooting ability and disease resistance. However, while large biomass production is important for bioenergy crops, efficient use of resources including water is also important in sites lacking irrigation and for maintaining ecosystem water availability. In addition, comparison of water use strategies across a range of growth rates and genetic variability can elucidate whether certain strategies are shared among the fastest growing and/or most water use efficient genotypes. We estimated tree water use throughout the second growing season via sapflow sensors of 48 genotypes from five Populus taxa; P. deltoides W. Bartram ex Marshall × P. deltoides (D × D), P. deltoides × P. maximowiczii A. Henry (D × M), P. deltoides × P. nigra L. (D × N), P. deltoides × P. trichocarpa Torr. & Gray (D × T) and P. trichocarpa × P. deltoides (T × D) and calculated average canopy stomatal conductance (G_S). We regressed G_S and atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD) wherein the slope of the relationship represents stomatal sensitivity to VPD. At the end of the second growing season, trees were harvested, and their dry woody biomass was used to calculate whole tree water use efficiency (WUE_T). We found that D × D and D × M genotypes exhibited differing water use strategies with D × D genotypes exhibiting high stomatal sensitivity while retaining leaves while D × M genotypes lost leaf area throughout the growing season but exhibited low stomatal sensitivity. Across measured taxa, biomass growth was positively correlated with WUE_T, and genotypes representing each measured taxa except D × N and T × D had high 2-year dry biomass of above 6 kg/tree. Overall, these data can be used to select Populus genotypes that combine high biomass growth with stomatal sensitivity and WUE_T to limit the negative impacts of bioenergy plantations on ecosystem water resources.     

Doubling protected land area may be inefficient at preserving the extent of undeveloped land and could cause substantial regional shifts in land use

Projection of land use and land-cover change is highly uncertain yet drives critical estimates of carbon emissions, climate change, and food and bioenergy production. We use new, spatially explicit land availability data in conjunction with a model sensitivity analysis to estimate the effects of additional land protection on land use and land cover. The land availability data include protected land and agricultural suitability and is incorporated into the Moirai land data system for initializing the Global Change Analysis Model. Overall, decreasing land availability is relatively inefficient at preserving undeveloped land while having considerable regional land-use impacts. Current amounts of protected area have little effect on land and crop production estimates, but including the spatial distribution of unsuitable (i.e., unavailable) land dramatically shifts bioenergy production from high northern latitudes to the rest of the world, compared with uniform availability. This highlights the importance of spatial heterogeneity in understanding and managing land change. Approximately doubling the current protected area to emulate a 30% protected area target may avoid land conversion by 2050 of less than half the newly protected extent while reducing bioenergy feedstock land by 10.4% and cropland and grazed pasture by over 3%. Regional bioenergy land may be reduced (increased) by up to 46% (36%), cropland reduced by up to 61%, pasture reduced by up to 100%, and harvested forest reduced by up to 35%. Only a few regions show notable gains in some undeveloped land types of up to 36%. Half of the regions can reach the target using only unsuitable land, which would minimize impacts on agriculture but may not meet conservation goals. Rather than focusing on an area target, a more robust approach may be to carefully select newly protected land to meet well-defined conservation goals while minimizing impacts to agriculture.     

Trade‐offs between land and water requirements for large‐scale bioenergy production

Bioenergy is expected to play an important role in the future energy mix as it can substitute fossil fuels and contribute to climate change mitigation. However, large‐scale bioenergy cultivation may put substantial pressure on land and water resources. While irrigated bioenergy production can reduce the pressure on land due to higher yields, associated irrigation water requirements may lead to degradation of freshwater ecosystems and to conflicts with other potential users. In this article, we investigate the trade‐offs between land and water requirements of large‐scale bioenergy production. To this end, we adopt an exogenous demand trajectory for bioenergy from dedicated energy crops, targeted at limiting greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector to 1100 Gt carbon dioxide equivalent until 2095. We then use the spatially explicit global land‐ and water‐use allocation model MAgPIE to project the implications of this bioenergy target for global land and water resources. We find that producing 300 EJ yr^?1 of bioenergy in 2095 from dedicated bioenergy crops is likely to double agricultural water withdrawals if no explicit water protection policies are implemented. Since current human water withdrawals are dominated by agriculture and already lead to ecosystem degradation and biodiversity loss, such a doubling will pose a severe threat to freshwater ecosystems. If irrigated bioenergy production is prohibited to prevent negative impacts of bioenergy cultivation on water resources, bioenergy land requirements for meeting a 300 EJ yr^?1 bioenergy target increase substantially (+ 41%) – mainly at the expense of pasture areas and tropical forests. Thus, avoiding negative environmental impacts of large‐scale bioenergy production will require policies that balance associated water and land requirements.     

Projecting future grassland productivity to assess the sustainability of potential biofuel feedstock areas in the Greater Platte River Basin

This study projects future (e.g., 2050 and 2099) grassland productivities in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB) using ecosystem performance (EP, a surrogate for measuring ecosystem productivity) models and future climate projections. The EP models developed from a previous study were based on the satellite vegetation index, site geophysical and biophysical features, and weather and climate drivers. The future climate data used in this study were derived from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model 3.0 ‘SRES A1B’ (a ‘middle’ emissions path). The main objective of this study is to assess the future sustainability of the potential biofuel feedstock areas identified in a previous study. Results show that the potential biofuel feedstock areas (the more mesic eastern part of the GPRB) will remain productive (i.e., aboveground grassland biomass productivity >2750 kg ha^?1 year^?1) with a slight increasing trend in the future. The spatially averaged EPs for these areas are 3519, 3432, 3557, 3605, 3752, and 3583 kg ha^?1 year^?1 for current site potential (2000–2008 average), 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099, respectively. Therefore, the identified potential biofuel feedstock areas will likely continue to be sustainable for future biofuel development. On the other hand, grasslands identified as having no biofuel potential in the drier western part of the GPRB would be expected to stay unproductive in the future (spatially averaged EPs are 1822, 1691, 1896, 2306, 1994, and 2169 kg ha^?1 year^?1 for site potential, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099). These areas should continue to be unsuitable for biofuel feedstock development in the future. These future grassland productivity estimation maps can help land managers to understand and adapt to the expected changes in future EP in the GPRB and to assess the future sustainability and feasibility of potential biofuel feedstock areas.     

Environmental factors function as constraints on soil nitrous oxide fluxes in bioenergy feedstock cropping systems

Nitrous oxide (N₂O) is a potent greenhouse gas and major component of the net global warming potential of bioenergy feedstock cropping systems. Numerous environmental factors influence soil N₂O production, making direct correlation difficult to any one factor of N₂O fluxes under field conditions. We instead employed quantile regression to evaluate whether soil temperature, water‐filled pore space (WFPS), and concentrations of soil nitrate () and ammonium () determined upper bounds for soil N₂O flux magnitudes. We collected data over 6 years from a range of bioenergy feedstock cropping systems including no‐till grain crops, perennial warm‐season grasses, hybrid poplar, and polycultures of tallgrass prairie species each with and without nitrogen (N) addition grown at two sites. The upper bounds for soil N₂O fluxes had a significant and positive correlation with all four environmental factors, although relatively large fluxes were still possible at minimal values for nearly all factors. The correlation with was generally weaker, suggesting it is less important than in driving large fluxes. Quantile regression slopes were generally lower for unfertilized perennials than for other systems, but this may have resulted from a perpetual state of nitrogen limitation, which prevented other factors from being clear constraints. This framework suggests efforts to reduce concentrations of in the soil may be effective at reducing high‐intensity periods—”hot moments”—of N₂O production.     

Nitrogen fertilization increases diversity and productivity of prairie communities used for bioenergy

Using prairie biomass as a renewable source of energy may constitute an important opportunity to improve the environmental sustainability of managed land. To date, assessments of the feasibility of using prairies for bioenergy production have focused on marginal areas with low yield potential. Growing prairies on more fertile soil or with moderate levels of fertilization may be an effective means of increasing yields, but increased fertility often reduces plant community diversity. At a fertile site in central Iowa with high production potential, we tested the hypothesis that nitrogen fertilization would increase aboveground biomass production but would decrease diversity of prairies sown and managed for bioenergy production. Over a 3 year period (years 2–4 after seeding), we measured aboveground biomass after plant senescence and species and functional‐group diversity in June and August for multispecies mixtures of prairie plants that received no fertilizer or 84 kg N ha^?1 year^?1. We found that nitrogen fertilization increased aboveground biomass production, but with or without fertilization, the prairies produced a substantial amount of biomass: averaging (±SE) 12.2 ± 1.3 and 9.1 ± 1.0 Mg ha^?1 in fertilized and unfertilized prairies, respectively. Unfertilized prairies had higher species diversity in June, whereas fertilized prairies had higher species diversity in August at the end of the study period. Functional‐group diversity was almost always higher in fertilized prairies. Composition of unfertilized prairies was characterized by native C₄ grasses and legumes, whereas fertilized prairies were characterized by native C₃ grasses and forbs. Although most research has found that nitrogen fertilization reduces prairie diversity, our results indicate that early‐spring nitrogen fertilization, when used with a postsenescence annual harvest, may increase prairie diversity. Managing prairies for bioenergy production, including the judicious use of fertilization, may be an effective means of increasing the amount of saleable products from managed lands while potentially increasing plant diversity.     

Tailoring microbes to upgrade lignin

Lignin depolymerization generates a mixture of numerous compounds that are difficult to separate cost-effectively. To address this heterogeneity issue, microbes have been employed to ‘biologically funnel’ a broad range of compounds present in depolymerized lignin into common central metabolites that can be converted into a single desirable product. Because the composition of depolymerized lignin varies significantly with the type of biomass and the depolymerization method, microbes should be selected and engineered by considering this compositional variation. An ideal microbe must efficiently metabolize all relevant lignin-derived compounds regardless of the compositional variation of feedstocks, but discovering or developing such a perfect microbe is very challenging. Instead, developing multiple tailored microbes to tolerate a given mixture of lignin-derived compounds and to convert most of these into a target product is more practical. This review summarizes recent progress toward the development of such microbes for lignin valorization and offers future directions.     

The future of bioenergy

Energy from biomass plays a large and growing role in the global energy system. Energy from biomass can make significant contributions to reducing carbon emissions, especially from difficult‐to‐decarbonize sectors like aviation, heavy transport, and manufacturing. But land‐intensive bioenergy often entails substantial carbon emissions from land‐use change as well as production, harvesting, and transportation. In addition, land‐intensive bioenergy scales only with the utilization of vast amounts of land, a resource that is fundamentally limited in supply. Because of the land constraint, the intrinsically low yields of energy per unit of land area, and rapid technological progress in competing technologies, land intensive bioenergy makes the most sense as a transitional element of the global energy mix, playing an important role over the next few decades and then fading, probably after mid‐century. Managing an effective trajectory for land‐intensive bioenergy will require an unusual mix of policies and incentives that encourage appropriate utilization in the short term but minimize lock‐in in the longer term.     

Predicting soil carbon changes in switchgrass grown on marginal lands under climate change and adaptation strategies

The United States Great Lakes Region (USGLR) is a critical geographic area for future bioenergy production. Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) is widely considered a carbon (C)‐neutral or C‐negative bioenergy production system, but projected increases in air temperature and precipitation due to climate change might substantially alter soil organic C (SOC) dynamics and storage in soils. This study examined long‐term SOC changes in switchgrass grown on marginal land in the USGLR under current and projected climate, predicted using a process‐based model (Systems Approach to Land‐Use Sustainability) extensively calibrated with a wealth of plant and soil measurements at nine experimental sites. Simulations indicate that these soils are likely a net C sink under switchgrass (average gain 0.87 Mg C ha^?1 year^?1), although substantial variation in the rate of SOC accumulation was predicted (range: 0.2–1.3 Mg C ha^?1 year^?1). Principal component analysis revealed that the predicted intersite variability in SOC sequestration was related in part to differences in climatic characteristics, and to a lesser extent, to heterogeneous soils. Although climate change impacts on switchgrass plant growth were predicted to be small (4%–6% decrease on average), the increased soil respiration was predicted to partially negate SOC accumulations down to 70% below historical rates in the most extreme scenarios. Increasing N fertilizer rate and decreasing harvest intensity both had modest SOC sequestration benefits under projected climate, whereas introducing genotypes better adapted to the longer growing seasons was a much more effective strategy. Best‐performing adaptation scenarios were able to offset >60% of the climate change impacts, leading to SOC sequestration 0.7 Mg C ha^?1 year^?1 under projected climate. On average, this was 0.3 Mg C ha^?1 year^?1 more C sequestered than the no adaptation baseline. These findings provide crucial knowledge needed to guide policy and operational management for maximizing SOC sequestration of future bioenergy production on marginal lands in the USGLR.