Structural Decomposition Analysis of Raw Material Consumption

The aim of this article is to quantify the drivers for the changes in raw material consumption (domestic material consumption expressed in the form of all materials extracted and used in the production phase) in terms of technology, which refers to the concept of sustainable production; the product structure of final demand, which refers to the concept of sustainable consumption; and the volume of final demand, which is related to economic growth. We also aim to determine to what extent the technological development and a shift in product structure of the final demand compensate for the growth in final consumption volume. Therefore, we apply structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to the change in raw material consumption (RMC) of the Czech Republic between 2000 and 2007. To present the study in a broader context, we also show other material flow indicators for the Czech Republic for 2000 and 2007. Our findings of SDA show that final demand structure has a very limited effect on the change in material flows. The rapid change in final demand volume was not compensated for crude oil, metal ores, construction materials, food crops, and timber. For the material category of non‐iron metal ores, even the change in technology contributes to an increase in material flows. The largest relative increases are reported for non‐iron metal ores (38%) and construction materials (30%). The main changes in material flows related to the Czech Republic are driven by exports and enabled by imports, the main source of these increased material flows. This emphasizes the increasing role of international trade.     

An Extreme Value Analysis of Pollutant Concentrations in Surface Soils Due to Atmospheric Deposition

Risk assessments often rely on deterministic models using long-term averages or “steady-state” values of input variables. Such models do not provide the information needed to estimate acute exposures. This study uses extreme value theory to examine the frequency and magnitude of daily pollutant concentrations in surface soils predicted at six U.S. locations. Concentrations are predicted using a deposition-leaching model and 50 years of historical precipitation data. A stochastic model also is used to generate 1000 years of precipitation data as modeling inputs for each location. The annual maximum concentrations at each site are fitted to a Gumbel type I distribution to estimate occurrence probability. For soluble pollutants, the predicted concentration varied substantially with precipitation, and the maximum daily concentrations exceeded annual averages by 4 to 8 times. Observed and synthetic precipitation data produced similar results at most study locations, though the synthetic data provided a slightly better fit to the Gumbel type I distribution. The precipitation model allows the generation of representative precipitation data that extend limited historical records. The extreme value analysis facilitates the evaluation of maximum pollutant concentrations, return periods, and other statistics that are important in evaluating acute exposures.     

The unpredictability of favourability: condition assessment and protected areas in England

The probability that protected areas will deliver their potential for maintaining or enhancing biodiversity is likely to be maximised if they are appropriately and effectively managed. As a result, governments and conservation agencies are devoting much attention to the management of protected areas. In the U.K., the demand for performance accountability has resulted in Public Service Agreements (PSA) that set out targets for government departments to deliver results in return for investments being made. One such target for England is to ensure that all nationally important wildlife sites are in favourable condition by 2010. Here, we tested the hypothesis, of potential strategic importance, that the ecological condition of these sites is predictable from relationships with a range of physical, environmental and demographic variables. We used binary logistic regression to investigate these relationships, using the results of English Nature’s 1997–2003 condition assessment exercise. Generally, sites in unfavourable condition tend to be larger in area, located at higher elevations, but with higher human population density and are more spatially isolated from units of the same habitat. However, despite the range of different parameters included in our models, the extent to which the condition of any given site could be predicted was low. Our results have implications for the delivery of PSA targets, funding allocation, and the location of new protected areas.     

In Pursuit of Safety: One-Hundred Years of Toxicological Risk Assessment

The publication in 1962 of Rachel Carson's Silent Spring marks the mid-point in a century that saw, in its first half, the emergence of public health concerns related to human exposures to chemicals, and, in its second half, the emergence of public policies to deal with those concerns. Those policies made it imperative that the scientific community come to grips with the problem of identifying exposure levels not likely to cause harm. This problem was not significantly discussed within the scientific community until the 1950s, and well-described methods for practical solutions to it did not appear until the 1970s. An important report from the National Academy of Sciences, published in 1983 (Risk Assessment in the Federal Government), provided an analysis of these emerging methods, and recommended a useful framework for the assessment and management of risk. This framework remains central to public health and regulatory decision-making. A high-level perspective is offered on events leading to and following the 1983 report. The article describes early thinking about chemical toxicity and the scientific path that thinking followed through the 20th century, and to the present.     

Losing the last feather: feather loss as an antipredator adaptation in birds

Birds often lose feathers during predation attempts, and thisability has evolved as a means of escape. Because predatorsare more likely to grab feathers on the rump and the back thanon the ventral side of an escaping bird, we predicted that theformer feathers would have evolved to be relatively looselyattached as an antipredator strategy in species that frequentlydie from predation. We estimated the force required to removefeathers from the rump, back, and breast by pulling featherswith a spring balance from a range of European bird speciesin an attempt to investigate ecological factors associated withease of feather loss during predation attempts. The force requiredto loosen a feather from the rump was less than that requiredto loosen a feather from back, which in turn was less than thatrequired to loosen a feather from the breast. The relative forceneeded to loosen rump feathers compared with feathers from theback and the breast was smaller for prey species preferred bythe most common predator of small passerine birds, the sparrowhawkAccipiter nisus. Likewise, the relative force was also smallerin species with a high frequency of complete tail loss amongfree-living birds, which we used as an index of the frequencyof failed predation attempts. The relative force required toremove feathers from the rump was smaller in species with ahigh frequency of fear screams, another measure of the relativeimportance of predation as a cause of death. Feather loss requiredparticularly little force among solitarily breeding bird speciesthat suffer the highest degree of predation. Antipredator defensein terms of force required to remove feathers from the rumpwas larger in species with a strong antiparasite defense interms of T-cell–mediated immune response. These findingsare consistent with the hypothesis that different defenses areantagonistic and that they are traded off against each other.     

Principles for linking fish habitat to fisheries management and conservation

A set of eight simple ecological and social principles is proposed that could enhance the understanding of what constitutes fish 'habitat' and, if implemented, could contribute to improved management and conservation strategies. The habitat principles are a small, interrelated sub‐set that may be coupled with additional ones to formulate comprehensive guidelines for management and conservation strategies. It is proposed that: 1) habitat can be created by keystone species and interactions among species; 2) the productivity of aquatic and riparian habitat is interlinked by reciprocal exchanges of material; 3) the riparian zone is fish habitat; 4) fishless headwater streams are inseparable from fish‐bearing rivers downstream; 5) habitats can be coupled – in rivers, lakes, estuaries and oceans, and in time; 6) habitats change over hours to centuries; 7) fish production is dynamic due to biocomplexity, in species and in habitats; 8) management and conservation strategies must evolve in response to present conditions, but especially to the anticipated future. It is contended that the long‐term resilience of native fish communities in catchments shared by humans depends on incorporating these principles into management and conservation strategies. Further, traditional strategies poorly reflect the dynamic nature of habitat, the true extent of habitat, or the intrinsic complexity in societal perspectives. Forward‐thinking fish management and conservation plans view habitat as more than water. They are multilayered, ranging from pools to catchments to ecoregions, and from hours to seasons to centuries. They embrace, as a fundamental premise, that habitat evolves through both natural and anthropogenic processes, and that patterns of change may be as important as other habitat attributes.     

The significance of mycotoxins in the framework of assessing workplace related risks

Mycotoxins are fungal metabolite which may in some cases exhibit a high health hazard potential. Mycotoxins can show carcinogenic, mutagenic, toxic, teratogenic or immunotoxic effects. Mycotoxin exposure in the workplace may occur through inhalation and skin contact,e.g. during occupational handling of organic matter such as livestock feed, food products, or waste. Various studies suggest that both acute and chronic effects can occur, depending at least on the exposure level. The magnitude of the potential health risks associated with a respiratory or dermal intake of mycotoxins has largely remained unclear to date. However, according to the directive 2000/54/EC on biological agents and the corresponding German Biological Agents Ordinance, employers are also required to consider the potential hazards posed by toxic effects of biological agents when assessing workplace risks. The aim of this article, therefore, is to present some basis information that should facilitate an evaluation of the significance of mycotoxins in the context of assessing workplace risks. It also provides suggestions for occupational health and safety measures.     

Vocalisation sound pattern identification in young broiler chickens

In this study, we describe the monitoring of young broiler chicken vocalisation, with sound recorded and assessed at regular intervals throughout the life of the birds from day 1 to day 38, with a focus on the first week of life. We assess whether there are recognisable, and even predictable, vocalisation patterns based on frequency and sound spectrum analysis, which can be observed in birds at different ages and stages of growth within the relatively short life of the birds in commercial broiler production cycles. The experimental trials were carried out in a farm where the broiler where reared indoor, and audio recording procedures carried out over 38 days. The recordings were made using two microphones connected to a digital recorder, and the sonic data was collected in situations without disturbance of the animals beyond that created by the routine activities of the farmer. Digital files of 1 h duration were cut into short files of 10 min duration, and these sound recordings were analysed and labelled using audio analysis software. Analysis of these short sound files showed that the key vocalisation frequency and patterns changed in relation to increasing age and the weight of the broilers. Statistical analysis showed a significant correlation (P<0.001) between the frequency of vocalisation and the age of the birds. Based on the identification of specific frequencies of the sounds emitted, in relation to age and weight, it is proposed that there is potential for audio monitoring and comparison with ‘anticipated’ sound patterns to be used to evaluate the status of farmed broiler chicken.     

Effects of a participatory approach,with systematic impact matrix analysis in herd health planning in organic dairy cattle herds

The animal health and welfare status in European organic dairy production does not in all aspects meet the organic principles and consumers’ expectations and needs to be improved. To achieve this, tailored herd health planning, targeted to the specific situation of individual farms could be of use. The aim of this study was to apply herd health planning in a structured participatory approach, with impact matrix analysis, not previously used in this context, in European organic dairy farms and to assess changes in animal health and welfare. Herd health planning farm visits were conducted on 122 organic dairy farms in France, Germany and Sweden. The farmer, the herd veterinarian and/or an advisor took part in the farm discussions. The researcher served as facilitator. Baseline data on the animal health status of the individual farm, collected from national milk recording schemes, were presented as an input for the discussion. Thereafter a systematic impact matrix analysis was performed. This was to capture the complexity of individual farms with the aim to identify the farm-specific factors that could have a strong impact on animal health. The participants (i.e. farmer, veterinarian and advisor) jointly identified areas in need of improvement, taking the health status and the interconnected farm system components into account, and appropriate actions were jointly identified. The researcher took minutes during the discussions, and these were shared with the participants. No intervention was made by the researcher, and further actions were left with the participants. The number of actions per farm ranged from 0 to 22. The change in mortality, metabolic diseases, reproductive performance and udder health was assessed at two time points, and potential determinators of the change were evaluated with linear regression models. A significant association was seen between change in udder health, as measured by the somatic cell count, and country. At the first follow-up, a significant association was also found between change in the proportion of prolonged calving interval and the farmers’ desire to improve reproductive health as well as with an increase in herd size, but this was not seen at the second follow-up. The degree of implementation of the actions was good (median 67%, lower quartile 40%, upper quartile 83%). To conclude, the degree of implementation was quite high, improvement of animal health could not be linked to the herd health planning approach. However, the approach was highly appreciated by the participants and deserves further study.