Planning oral health care for the elderly in Israel for the years 2000 and 2025

The methodology and conclusions of this workshop arc reported here because the problems requiring solution are not unique to Israel. They will increasingly have wide geographical and political application. The population of Israel since its establishment in 1948 has increased about sixfold. The numbers of the elderly (65+) have increased about tenfold. The current situation must be examined and estimates obtained for the next ten years. Only thus can the system be enabled to cope with the problem as it develops. The chosen method was a carefully preplanned, multisectorial workshop. Recommendations were discussed, amended and finalised. The recommendations of the workshop included: Baseline national data is urgently required. Guidelines are required for selecting specific target populations to which priority should be given. The current favourable situation of adequate oral health manpower in Israel makes it possible to encourage providers of oral health care towards treatment for the elderly. It is essential that the appropriate health authorities allocate sufficient funds for the following urgent purposes: the conduct of a national survey of the elderly population; the establishment of oral health units on a trial basis in some selected hospitals; support institutions of higher education to facilitate training in geriatric dentistry. Conclusions. The workshop was multidisciplinary because it was necessary to include all the expertise and experience available as vital elements of the policy making process. This type of workshop was found to be an effective tool for planning oral health services.     

The good,the bad and the ugly: science,aesthetics and environmental assessment

The question is raised, whether there are peculiarly scientific values which can be applied in environmental assessment. The use of the expression scientific interest is traced from its 19th century origins to modern British statutes. It is argued that attempts to replace expert judgements by objective scientific criteria (e.g., indices of biodiversity) can never be completely successful. In particular, interest is an aesthetic atribute particularly valued by scientists but incapable of precise measurement. While science provides the best framework for informed judgements on conservation issues, the judgements of scientists are inevitably distinct from their experimental results. Judgements rest on ethical and aesthetic values such as importance and interest, which are essential constituents of the scientific sub-culture, but which are not uniquely scientific.     

生物多样性与传染性疾病的关系: 进展、挑战与展望

在全球生物多样性快速丧失的背景下, 理解生物多样性如何影响传染性疾病风险具有重要意义。大量研究表明, 宿主多样性对传染性疾病可能存在稀释效应(即疾病风险随宿主生物多样性的增加而降低), 但是也有放大效应或者没有影响的证据。本文首先介绍了关于生物多样性与传染性疾病关系的研究进展, 以及该领域的热点研究问题, 包括宿主多样性-疾病关系的格局和空间依赖性、稀释效应的体系依赖性和系统发育稀释效应等。随后,介绍了相关研究伴随的争议和批判, 主要集中在: 稀释效应发生的普遍性、生物多样性-疾病关系实验研究的发表偏好性以及部分疾病生态学家对生物多样性和传染性疾病之间简单数字关系的过分关注。最后指出稀释效应与物种共存、全球变化对稀释效应的影响、进化与稀释效应、稀释效应在政策制定中的应用等领域可能是今后的主要研究方向。     

格网尺度下青海玛多县土地利用及生态系统服务价值空间自相关分析

开展黄河源区土地利用和生态系统服务价值空间量化评估,对于保障黄河流域生态安全具有重要意义。以黄河源区玛多县为例,基于3 km×3 km网格单元,应用空间自相关方法构建生态系统服务价值评价模型,定量评价了2015年玛多县土地利用/覆被空间自相关格局特征,可视化表达了玛多县生态系统服务价值空间信息。结果表明: 在3 km×3 km格网尺度下,不同覆盖度草地覆盖范围广阔;水域网格占总网格数的42.9%,在玛多县西北部分布密集;建设用地呈东北-西南走向的“线条式”分布;未利用土地体现为西南多、东北少的分布格局。在空间上,玛多县土地利用类型网格之间相互影响,表现为正相关性和聚集分布。水域的全局Moran I和局部Moran I值均最大,空间聚集性最强,局部连片度较高。建设用地的全局Moran I和局部Moran I值分别为0.293和0.127,空间自相关性最弱,在小范围内呈聚集特点。2015年,玛多县生态系统服务价值(ESV)为938.87亿元,网格的ESV平均值为3.20×10⁷元,最大值为19.96×10⁷元,水域分布网格是ESV的高值区。玛多县ESV分布格局整体上呈显著的空间正向自相关,ESV在网格之间为聚集分布。不同土地利用类型ESV网格总体呈高高、低低聚集,在局部零星为高低、低高聚集。可采取的国土空间规划与用途管制策略包括:水域、未利用土地采用强调生态溢出价值的“集中连片式”保护模式,高、中、低覆盖度草地采取主次分明、划区管理的“组团式”生态治理模式,建设用地在“廊道式”分布格局中采取小范围集约化开发利用模式。     

生态系统服务供给和需求研究评述及框架体系构建

生态系统服务供给和需求联系着自然生态系统与社会经济系统,对生态系统服务供给和需求的研究有助于加强生态系统管理和实现资源优化配置,从而保障区域生态安全与社会经济可持续发展。本文在系统梳理国内外相关研究的基础上,对生态系统服务供给和需求的概念内涵、评估方法和实践应用等方面进行全面综述。从理论发展的角度看,虽然目前已取得较为丰富的研究成果,但是现有研究仍较为分散,缺乏统一的生态系统服务供需研究框架体系。鉴于此,本文在对生态系统服务供给和需求的研究范畴进行拓展的基础上,按照“理论-方法-实践”相统一的研究脉络,构建了“定性-定位-定量-定策”的生态系统服务供给和需求研究框架体系,最后提出未来研究应围绕“重点关注生态系统服务供给和需求的空间转移规律、加强生态系统服务供给和需求的定量方法研究、深化生态系统服务供给和需求应用管理实践和建立生态系统服务供给和需求应用评价机制”等方面展开,以期促进生态系统服务供给和需求的理论与实践研究。     

Spatial co‐localisation of extreme weather events: a clear and present danger

Extreme weather events have become a dominant feature of the narrative surrounding changes in global climate with large impacts on ecosystem stability, functioning and resilience; however, understanding of their risk of co‐occurrence at the regional scale is lacking. Based on the UK Met Office’s long‐term temperature and rainfall records, we present the first evidence demonstrating significant increases in the magnitude, direction of change and spatial co‐localisation of extreme weather events since 1961. Combining this new understanding with land‐use data sets allowed us to assess the likely consequences on future agricultural production and conservation priority areas. All land‐uses are impacted by the increasing risk of at least one extreme event and conservation areas were identified as the hotspots of risk for the co‐occurrence of multiple event types. Our findings provide a basis to regionally guide land‐use optimisation, land management practices and regulatory actions preserving ecosystem services against multiple climate threats.     

传粉昆虫下降背景下的授粉生态弹性: 内涵、机制和展望

全球传粉昆虫多样性正在下降, 如何保障农林生态系统传粉功能是当前研究的热点。理论上说, 传粉功能不仅与生态系统的传粉昆虫多样性相关, 还与生态系统的调节能力有关。近年来, 学者们逐渐认识到授粉生态弹性对传粉功能的影响。本文在回顾已有研究的基础之上, 总结传粉昆虫授粉生态弹性的内涵, 厘清授粉生态弹性与工程弹性、稳定性和抗性的异同。目前, 学者对授粉生态弹性形成机制开展广泛探讨, 提出功能冗余假说、密度补偿假说、响应多样性假说、连接周转假说和跨尺度弹性假说, 但这5个假说间的关系仍不清楚, 存在一词多义、词意混淆等现象。我们依次阐述功能冗余假说、密度补偿假说、响应多样性假说、连接周转假说和跨尺度弹性假说, 介绍不同假说中授粉生态弹性形成过程、研究热点和发展动态。通过解析授粉生态弹性的形成机制可知, 5个假说在内涵上存在紧密联系, 它们从不同空间尺度和研究对象下解释传粉昆虫授粉生态弹性的形成机制。未来授粉生态弹性研究将整合传粉昆虫群落动态和传粉功能动态的量化方法, 通过实验验证5个假说的合理性, 并揭示不同假说间的联系, 由此阐明授粉生态弹性的发生条件、形成阈值和动态规律。随着研究的深入, 授粉生态弹性理论有望用于指导农林生态系统传粉功能的经营管理。     

Leaflet morphometric variation of service tree (Sorbus domestica L.) in the Balkan Peninsula

Abstract

In most European countries, the service tree (Sorbus domestica L.) is a rare and threatened species and its conservation has been recognised as a priority. The aim of this study was to asses its morphologic variation in the western and central part of the Balkan Peninsula and in southern Central Europe. Three populations were analysed: one in Serbia, one in Bosnia and Herzegovina and one in Slovenia. In each population 30 trees were selected, and from each tree 30 leaves were collected for morphometric analysis based on nine leaflet morphological traits. Univariate (ANOVA) and multivariate (MANOVA) analysis of variance were used to estimate the variation within- and between populations and a discriminant analysis was performed to examine the structure of the between-population differences. The values of particular morphological traits found in our study did not differ considerably from the values reported elsewhere. The results revealed significant within- and between population variation. Variation within populations was highly significant for all the scored leaf morphological traits, while variation between populations was significant for all the studied traits except for the leaflet length. The discrimination between the three populations was significant. High percentages of correctly classified samples demonstrate good discriminating employability of the analysed leaf morphological traits and indicate differentiation of the analysed populations.     

瓢虫种群对棉花-玉米农田景观格局的响应

本文研究了华北棉花-玉米农田景观格局中龟纹瓢虫Propylaea japonica(Thunberg)和异色瓢虫Harmonia axyridis(Pallas)种群动态,发现农田景观格局中作物类型(棉花与玉米)对两种瓢虫种群密度动态有显著的影响,两种天敌瓢虫都趋向在玉米斑块上栖息。两种瓢虫在棉花斑块上呈现出时间分化,其中龟纹瓢虫在棉花种植的前中期种群密度较大,后期较少;而异色瓢虫在棉花前中期种群密度较少,后期较多,表明农田景观中种植玉米有利于增强瓢虫对棉花害虫的控制作用。进一步的研究表明,农田景观系统中玉米斑块所占的面积比对龟纹瓢虫和异色瓢虫种群密度均产生显著影响。这说明在农田景观系统中开展区域性生态调控的时候,需要考虑到各类斑块组合的面积比例,从而有利于增强多种天敌昆虫的协调控害作用。     

Interactions between climatic and production factors on returns of female pigs to service during summer in Japanese commercial breeding herds

The objectives of this study were to determine the associations between climatic factors and production factors for returns to service of female pigs during summer and to quantify the associations between these factors and occurrences of returns to service. The factors that were assessed were as follows: maximum temperature (HT), relative humidity, age of gilts at first mating, parity, weaning-to-first-mating interval (WMI), and lactation length. The study analyzed records of 18,307 gilts in 99 herds and 78,135 parity records of 56,322 sows in 103 herds; all the females were first-serviced between June and September, 2007 to 2009. Average daily HT and relative humidity for 15 days post-service of a female were obtained from 21 local weather stations and coordinated with the performance data of the respective local herds. The returns to service were categorized into three groups: regular returns (RRs: 18–24 days), irregular returns (IRs: 25–38 days), and late returns to service (LRs: 39 days or later). Two-level mixed-effects models were applied to the data by using a herd at level 2 and an individual record at level 1. In mated gilts, the occurrences (%) of RRs, IRs, and LRs were 4.8%, 1.8%, and 5.3%, respectively. In mated sows, the respective occurrences were 3.3%, 1.8%, and 4.2%. Mean values (ranges) of HT and relative humidity were 28.4 °C (13.6 °C–39.8 °C) and 73.4% (35.0%–98.0%), respectively. In gilts, as HT increased from 25 °C to 30 °C, the occurrence of RR increased from 3.7% to 4.4% (P < 0.05). However, there was no association between the occurrence of RR and either relative humidity (P = 0.17) or age at first mating (P = 0.23). In addition, there were no associations between the occurrences of either gilt IR or LR and HT (P ≥ 0.05), relative humidity (P ≥ 0.46), or age at first mating (P ≥ 0.32). In sows, greater occurrences of RRs, IRs, and LRs were associated with higher HT, lower parity, and a WMI of 7 days or longer (P < 0.05), but they were not associated with relative humidity (P ≥ 0.62) or lactation length (P ≥ 0.13). The occurrence of RRs in sows of all WMI groups increased 1.22 (1.04⁵) times for each 5 °C increase in HT. For sows with WMI 0 to 6 days, each 5 °C rise in HT increased the occurrence of IRs and LRs by 1.36 (1.06⁵) and 1.27 (1.05⁵) times, respectively. However, there was no association between increased HT and occurrences of IRs or LRs for sows with WMI 7 days or longer (P ≥ 0.38). Therefore, in order to prevent returns to service, it is recommended that producers apply cooling management for females during the post-service periods in summer.