A simulation approach for power calculation in large cohort studies based on multistate models

Realistic power calculations for large cohort studies and nested case control studies are essential for successfully answering important and complex research questions in epidemiology and clinical medicine. For this, we provide a methodical framework for general realistic power calculations via simulations that we put into practice by means of an R‐based template. We consider staggered recruitment and individual hazard rates, competing risks, interaction effects, and the misclassification of covariates. The study cohort is assembled with respect to given age‐, gender‐, and community distributions. Nested case‐control analyses with a varying number of controls enable comparisons of power with a full cohort analysis. Time‐to‐event generation under competing risks, including delayed study‐entry times, is realized on the basis of a six‐state Markov model. Incidence rates, prevalence of risk factors and prefixed hazard ratios allow for the assignment of age‐dependent transition rates given in the form of Cox models. These provide the basis for a central simulation‐algorithm, which is used for the generation of sample paths of the underlying time‐inhomogeneous Markov processes. With the inclusion of frailty terms into the Cox models the Markov property is specifically biased. An “individual Markov process given frailty” creates some unobserved heterogeneity between individuals. Different left‐truncation‐ and right‐censoring patterns call for the use of Cox models for data analysis. p‐values are recorded over repeated simulation runs to allow for the desired power calculations. For illustration, we consider scenarios with a “testing” character as well as realistic scenarios. This enables the validation of a correct implementation of theoretical concepts and concrete sample size recommendations against an actual epidemiological background, here given with possible substudy designs within the German National Cohort.     

Co‐occurrence patterns of trees along macro‐climatic gradients and their potential influence on the present and future distribution of Fagus sylvatica L.

Aim During recent and future climate change, shifts in large‐scale species ranges are expected due to the hypothesized major role of climatic factors in regulating species distributions. The stress‐gradient hypothesis suggests that biotic interactions may act as major constraints on species distributions under more favourable growing conditions, while climatic constraints may dominate under unfavourable conditions. We tested this hypothesis for one focal tree species having three major competitors using broad‐scale environmental data. We evaluated the variation of species co‐occurrence patterns in climate space and estimated the influence of these patterns on the distribution of the focal species for current and projected future climates. Location Europe. Methods We used ICP Forest Level 1 data as well as climatic, topographic and edaphic variables. First, correlations between the relative abundance of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and three major competitor species (Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris and Quercus robur) were analysed in environmental space, and then projected to geographic space. Second, a sensitivity analysis was performed using generalized additive models (GAM) to evaluate where and how much the predicted F. sylvatica distribution varied under current and future climates if potential competitor species were included or excluded. We evaluated if these areas coincide with current species co‐occurrence patterns. Results Correlation analyses supported the stress‐gradient hypothesis: towards favourable growing conditions of F. sylvatica, its abundance was strongly linked to the abundance of its competitors, while this link weakened towards unfavourable growing conditions, with stronger correlations in the south and at low elevations than in the north and at high elevations. The sensitivity analysis showed a potential spatial segregation of species with changing climate and a pronounced shift of zones where co‐occurrence patterns may play a major role. Main conclusions Our results demonstrate the importance of species co‐occurrence patterns for calibrating improved species distribution models for use in projections of climate effects. The correlation approach is able to localize European areas where inclusion of biotic predictors is effective. The climate‐induced spatial segregation of the major tree species could have ecological and economic consequences.     

Novel Monte Carlo dose calculation algorithm for robotic radiosurgery with multi leaf collimator: Dosimetric evaluation

PurposeAt introduction in 2014, dose calculation for the first MLC on a robotic SRS/SBRT platform was limited to a correction-based Finite-Size Pencil Beam (FSPB) algorithm. We report on the dosimetric accuracy of a novel Monte Carlo (MC) dose calculation algorithm for this MLC, included in the Precision™ treatment planning system.MethodsA phantom was built of one slab (5.0 cm) of lung-equivalent material (0.09…0.29 g/cc) enclosed by 3.5 cm (above) and 5 cm (below) slabs of solid water (1.045 g/cc). This was irradiated using rectangular (15.4 × 15.4 mm² to 53.8 × 53.7 mm²) and two irregular MLC-fields. Radiochromic film (EBT3) was positioned perpendicular to the slabs and parallel to the beam. Calculated dose distributions were compared to film measurements using line scans and 2D gamma analysis.ResultsMeasured and MC calculated percent depth dose curves showed a characteristic dose drop within the low-density region, which was not correctly reproduced by FSPB. Superior average gamma pass rates (2%/1 mm) were found for MC (91.2 ± 1.5%) compared to FSPB (55.4 ± 2.7%). However, MC calculations exhibited localized anomalies at mass density transitions around 0.15 g/cc, which were traced to a simplification in electron transport. Absence of these anomalies was confirmed in a modified build of the MC engine, which increased gamma pass rates to 96.6 ± 1.2%.ConclusionsThe novel MC algorithm greatly improves dosimetric accuracy in heterogeneous tissue, potentially expanding the clinical use of robotic radiosurgery with MLC. In-depth, independent validation is paramount to identify and reduce the residual uncertainties in any software solution.     

Linked Cross Sectional Schemes for Estimating Growth of Children

For estimation of growth, the efficiency of linked cross sectional scheme has been compared with pure longitudinal and cross sectional schemes. The relevant estimation theory has been developed and the expressions for the optimum estimators alongwith their variances have been derived. It has been observed that for estimation of growth, the linked cross-sectional scheme has been observed to be less efficient as compared to pure longitudinal scheme but more efficient than pure cross-sectional scheme.     

The role of the medium in long-range electron transfer

 The role of the polypeptide matrix in electron transfer processes in proteins has been studied in two distinct systems: first in a protein where the induced ET is artificial, and second as part of the catalytic cycle of an enzyme. Azurins are structurally well-characterized blue single-copper proteins consisting of a rigid β-sheet polypeptide matrix. We have determined rate constants and activation parameters for intramolecular long-range electron transfer between the disulfide radical anions (generated by pulse radiolysis) and the copper(II) centre as a function of driving force and nature of the intervening medium in a large number of wild-type and single-site-mutated proteins. In ascorbate oxidase, for which the three-dimensional structure is equally well characterized, the internal ET from the type-I Cu(I) to the trinuclear Cu(II) centre has been studied. We find that the results correlate well with distance through well-defined pathways using a through-bond electron tunnelling mechanism. Received: 2 January 1997 / Accepted: 6 February 1997     

Possible existence of ion pairs at the mouths of ion channels

An electrostatic calculation suggests that when an ion is bound near the mouth of a channel penetrating a low-dielectric membrane, a counter ion may form an ion pair with this ion. The tendency towards ion-pair formation is remarkably enhanced at channel mouths by forces (image forces) arising from the charges induced on the boundaries between different dielectrics. The binding constant for the formation of ion-pairs of monovalent ions is estimated under the assumption that local interactions between the counter ion and the channel wall are negligibly small. It is of the order of 1–10 molal^?1 or more for the binding of a Cl^? (F^?) counter ion to an $\text{Na}{}^{\mathrm{+}}$ ($\text{Li}{}^{\mathrm{+}}$) ion if appropriate conditions are fulfilled. The binding constant depends on the position of the binding site, the dimensions and geometries of the channel and channel mouth, and the state of ion loading of the channel, as well as the ionic species. The present results also indicate that when cation (anion) channels have anionic (cationic) groups as integrant parts of their channel walls, interactions between these charged groups and permeant ions are markedly enhanced by the image forces.     

The influence of earthworms (Lumbricidae) on the nitrogen dynamics in the soil litter system of a deciduous forest

Summary The influence of earthworms (Aporrectodea caliginosa (Savigny) and Lumbricus castaneus (Savigny)) on the rate of nitrogen net mineralization of the soil was studied in the laboratory and in the field. The additional mineralization of nitrogen cause by the burrowing activity of the substrat feeding earthworm A. caliginosa (N _L )was directly correlated to the biomass of the lumbricids independently of their number. A rise in temperature caused an exponential increase in N _L values. The Q ₁₀ value of this process (2.18) was found to be much higher than that of the nitrogen mineralization without earthworms (Q ₁₀=1.22). At 15°C the N _L value caused by A. caliginosa was calculated to be about 250 g N g^-1 fresh body wt d^-1. Using the experimentally determined exponential relationship between temperature and N _L values, the additional nitrogen mineralization caused by a population of A. caliginosa in a beechwood on limestone was calculated to be 4.23 kg ha^-1 a^-1.In contrast to A. caliginosa the litter dwelling species L. castaneus lost considerable amounts of biomass (56%) during the 4 week incubation period. Only 1/3 of the nitrogen equivalent to the weight loss of the animals was recovered in the mineral nitrogen pool.The addition of litter (old beech leaf litter, freshly fallen beech and ash leaf litter) had a pronounced effect on both nitrogen net mineralization and N _L values of the soil. Presence of old beech leaves caused an increase in both values, wheres the other litter types effected a decrease in nitrogen net mineralization. Fragmented ash litter was found to have the most distinct effect on N _L values (-69%) and nitrogen net mineralization (-74%).     

用PFU法研究微型生物群集过程中数据的处理

根据MacArthur-Wilson的岛屿区系平衡模型S_t=S_(eq)(1-e~(GT)),可以从野外生态效应试验和室内毒性试验中,提出3个功能参数(S_(eq)、G、t_(90％))进行比较。本文提出两种计算方法:复合梯形法和最小二乘法,后者已在计算机上实现了BASIC计算程序。从数学理论上论证,最小二乘法误差较小,但如果实验布局合理,两种计算方法能得到十分一致的结果。实验模型是否符合理论模型,可以用统计学上的拟合差异度检验法来检验。     

Theoretical conformational analysis of phospholipids II. Role of hydration in the gel to liquid crystal transition of phospholipids

To obtain a satisfactory agreement between computed transition temperatures and those determined experimentally, we introduce explicitly water molecules which hydrate the polar headgroup of dipalmitoylphosphatidylethanolamine molecules. The calculated free energy curves as a function of the intermolecular interchain distance and the degree of hydration of the polar groups permit the determination of the transition of the phospholipid system from the gel to the liquid crystalline phase. The detailed structure of the hydration shell is defined using the supermolecular approach.     

On the variability of “flexion creases” in the distal plantar areas of newborns

The plantae of 83 male and 95 female healthy, full-term Caucasian newborns from Austria (gestational age 235–301 days) were photographed and the flexion creases in the distal part were examined. Analysis of the creases was done under four different aspects, the main evaluation based on a scheme of nine creases introduced by Schenk and Patzer (1959). Two transversal (No. 1 and No. 9) and three longitudinal (Nos. 3, 6, and 7) creases are always or predominantly present, a finding corresponding with the data of Schenk on 52 male and 48 female newborns from Germany. In addition, the nine plantar creases were evaluated according to six degrees of expression, and some typical crease combinations are shown. Bilateral and bisexual similarity prevails. The results of this study might serve investigations of different populations and of medical disorders.