Cod Gadus morhua L. populations as behavioural units: inference from time series on juvenile abundance in the eastern Skagerrak

Abundance and distribution of cod Gadus morhua in various size intervals and age groups between 2000 and 2005 were followed in coastal trawl surveys. In spite of a reduction in fishing pressure in recent years and high cod recruitment in the Skagerrak region in 2001 and 2003, no recovery could be evidenced. The survey data clearly showed that low cod density areas were not recolonized, even though abundance of juvenile cod remained high for about a year after the recruitment episodes. Increased abundance of fish >400 mm total length was only discernible at some scattered locations where other studies also have suggested local populations still to be present. The intermittent high recruitment has been linked to an inflow of egg and larvae from the North Sea, a theory which also has gained support from genetic studies. It was thus argued that the disappearance of the juvenile cod from the inshore is an effect of a migratory behaviour; the fish of offshore origin eventually leave the coast for the open Skagerrak or the North Sea. These findings support a view on cod populations as essentially behavioural entities, whereas dispersal of early life stages may be less important as a structuring mechanism.     

Does Mother Nature really prefer rare species or are log‐left‐skewed SADs a sampling artefact?

Intensively sampled species abundance distributions (SADs) show left‐skew on a log scale. That is, there are too many rare species to fit a lognormal distribution. I propose that this log‐left‐skew might be a sampling artefact. Monte Carlo simulations show that taking progressively larger samples from a log‐unskewed distribution (such as the lognormal) causes log‐skew to decrease asymptotically (move towards ?∞) until it reaches the level of the underlying distribution (zero in this case). In contrast, accumulating certain types of repeated small samples results in a log‐skew that becomes progressively more log‐left‐skewed to a level well beyond the underlying distribution. These repeated samples correspond to samples from the same site over many years or from many sites in 1 year. Data from empirical datasets show that log‐skew generally goes from positive (right‐skewed) to negative (left‐skewed) as the number of temporally or spatially replicated samples increases. This suggests caution when interpreting log‐left‐skew as a pattern that needs biological interpretation.     

Co‐occurrence patterns of trees along macro‐climatic gradients and their potential influence on the present and future distribution of Fagus sylvatica L.

Aim During recent and future climate change, shifts in large‐scale species ranges are expected due to the hypothesized major role of climatic factors in regulating species distributions. The stress‐gradient hypothesis suggests that biotic interactions may act as major constraints on species distributions under more favourable growing conditions, while climatic constraints may dominate under unfavourable conditions. We tested this hypothesis for one focal tree species having three major competitors using broad‐scale environmental data. We evaluated the variation of species co‐occurrence patterns in climate space and estimated the influence of these patterns on the distribution of the focal species for current and projected future climates. Location Europe. Methods We used ICP Forest Level 1 data as well as climatic, topographic and edaphic variables. First, correlations between the relative abundance of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and three major competitor species (Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris and Quercus robur) were analysed in environmental space, and then projected to geographic space. Second, a sensitivity analysis was performed using generalized additive models (GAM) to evaluate where and how much the predicted F. sylvatica distribution varied under current and future climates if potential competitor species were included or excluded. We evaluated if these areas coincide with current species co‐occurrence patterns. Results Correlation analyses supported the stress‐gradient hypothesis: towards favourable growing conditions of F. sylvatica, its abundance was strongly linked to the abundance of its competitors, while this link weakened towards unfavourable growing conditions, with stronger correlations in the south and at low elevations than in the north and at high elevations. The sensitivity analysis showed a potential spatial segregation of species with changing climate and a pronounced shift of zones where co‐occurrence patterns may play a major role. Main conclusions Our results demonstrate the importance of species co‐occurrence patterns for calibrating improved species distribution models for use in projections of climate effects. The correlation approach is able to localize European areas where inclusion of biotic predictors is effective. The climate‐induced spatial segregation of the major tree species could have ecological and economic consequences.     

Testing environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis: The role of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and trade in OECD countries

This paper investigates the causal relationships between per capita CO₂ emissions, gross domestic product (GDP), renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, and international trade for a panel of 25 OECD countries over the period 1980–2010. Short-run Granger causality tests show the existence of bidirectional causality between: renewable energy consumption and imports, renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, non-renewable energy and trade (exports or imports); and unidirectional causality running from: exports to renewable energy, trade to CO₂ emissions, output to renewable energy. There are also long-run bidirectional causalities between all our considered variables. Our long-run fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimates show that the inverted U-shaped environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis is verified for this sample of OECD countries. They also show that increasing non-renewable energy increases CO₂ emissions. Interestingly, increasing trade or renewable energy reduces CO₂ emissions. According to these results, more trade and more use of renewable energy are efficient strategies to combat global warming in these countries.     

COMPARISON OF VERTICAL AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHIC AND GROUND CENSUSES OF STELLER SEA LIONS AT AÑO NUEVO ISLAND, JULY 1990-1993

Counts of Steller sea lion ( Eumetopias jubatus ) pups and non-pups (adults and juveniles) from aerial photographs of rookeries at Año Nuevo Island between 1990 and 1993 were significantly higher than those made on the ground. Based on regression of natural logs of photographic counts versus year, the number of pups declined at a rate of −0.099yr while non-pup numbers declined at −0.315/yr. Examination of ground count data for the same period revealed a significant decline in non-pups (−0.139/yr), but no trend was detected in the ground counts of pups. The regression coefficients from photographic and ground counts of non-pups did not differ significantly. Power analyses using the program TRENDS indicated that detectable rates of change in abundance from four annual surveys were much lower for counts of pups than counts of non-pups where sampling precision was based on fits to linear models.