Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of West Java Water Sustainability Index – A case study on Citarum catchment in Indonesia

Water sustainability indices have been recently used to measure the sustainability of water resources within a catchment. Developing a sustainability index involves various steps, some of which have uncertainties associated with them. For the recently developed West Java Water Sustainability Index (WJWSI), three sources of uncertainties were identified, namely uncertainties in the thresholds of non-categorical indicators and sub-indicators, in the weighting schemes, and in the aggregation methods. This paper presents the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of WJWSI, based on the application of WJWSI to Citarum catchment in West Java, Indonesia. The results of the uncertainty analysis, measured by the coefficient of variation of the thresholds and the sub-indices, indicates that minimum thresholds of Land Use Changes, Coverage, Education, Poverty, Health Impact and Sanitation, and the maximum threshold of Water Quality have higher variation when compared to variation of the other thresholds. The results of the sensitivity analysis, measured by the correlation coefficients between the final index and the thresholds, indicate that changes in the thresholds of WJWSI indicators have not significantly affected the sub-index values of most indicators and sub-indicators. The sensitivity analysis also concluded that either the equal or non-equal weighting scheme can be used for future use of the aggregation of WJWSI indicators and sub-indicators, as changes from equal to non-equal weighting scheme did not significantly affect the final index. However, it was found that the final index values were most sensitive to the aggregation method used (i.e. arithmetic and geometric methods), shown by the significant changes in the final index value when the aggregation method was changed from arithmetic to geometric. The uncertainty and sensitivity analysis presented in this study will not just assist in the efficient use of the WJWSI, but will also help undertake similar analysis for other indices.     

New records for prehistoric introduction of Neotropical mammals to the West Indies: evidence from Carriacou,Lesser Antilles

Aim This paper investigates the prehistoric introduction of five mammalian taxa to Carriacou (Lesser Antilles) and refines the known anthropogenic ranges for these fauna in the pre‐Columbian West Indies. The importance of such records for understanding the region’s historical biogeography and ecology is considered. Location Carriacou Island, Grenada (12°28′ N, 61°26′ W). Methods Zooarchaeological assemblages from Carriacou’s earliest documented prehistoric sites, Grand Bay and Sabazan, were analysed, and exotic taxa were identified and quantified. The timing of introductions was established based on multiple radiocarbon assays, including three new accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) direct dates obtained on the bone of exotic taxa. Source species and location(s) are considered and compared with known prehistoric records for the Caribbean to synthesize anthropogenic distributions for the pre‐Columbian period. The contexts of the zooarchaeological remains are evaluated to better understand the nature and purpose of introductions. Results Zooarchaeological investigation on Carriacou reveals the occurrence of multiple mammal introductions from South American between c. ad 700 and ad 1400. This paper presents the first records for guinea pig (Cavia sp.), armadillo (Dasypus sp.), peccary (Tayassu/Pecari sp.), opossum (Didelphis sp.) and agouti (Dasyprocta sp.) from the island. Human‐mediated transport of these taxa is indicated by their absence from the record prior to human settlement of Carriacou. Several translocated species are either rare or entirely unknown for the region, and overall West Indian distributions are temporally and spatially discontinuous. Archaeological contexts indicate that mammalian introductions arose from human subsistence needs, but other social factors may have shaped the dispersal of these fauna. Main conclusions The taxonomic combination and richness of Carriacou’s introduced fauna are unusual within the region. Importantly, the new records significantly improve the known pre‐Columbian geographic range for peccary, guinea pig and armadillo. Integrated with regional records, these data augment our understanding of the Caribbean’s historical biogeography, and have the potential to improve our understanding of human mobility and anthropogenic environmental impacts in the West Indies prior to the arrival of Europeans.     

Origin of bombesin-like peptides in human fetal lung

Four different forms of bombesin-like immunoreactive peaks were detected in extracts of human fetal lung by the use of reversed-phase high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Peaks I, II, III and IV, (increasing retention time), were eluted using a 14-38% of acetonitrile gradient containing 0.1% trifluoroacetic acid (TFA). Peak II was the major material found in the extract of human fetal lung obtained at 16-20 weeks gestation. None of the four compounds contained in the eluted peaks had the same retention time as amphibian bombesin or porcine gastrin releasing peptide (GRP). On reversed-phase HPLC using two different solvent systems TFA or heptafluorobutyric acid (HFBA) as a hydrophobic counter ion, and in gel filtration chromatography, the chromatographic behavior of the main peak (peak II) was the same as that of the carboxyl terminal fragments of GRP, GRP18-27 or GRP19-27. This suggested that the peptide(s) in peak II resembled in composition the carboxy terminal 9 or 10 amino acids of porcine GRP. Following tryptic digestion the material in peak IV was converted to the more polar compound present in peak II. Two other peptide peaks were eluted close to peak II and these were presumed to be a modification of this main peak. One of the possible biosynthetic steps in the formation of bombesin-like peptides in human fetal lung could be a tryptic conversion of a less polar peptide to a more polar form (peak IV to II).     

Milk: the new white gold? Milk production options for smallholder farmers in Southern Mali

Until the turn of the century, farmers in West Africa considered cotton to be the ‘white gold’ for their livelihoods. Large fluctuations in cotton prices have led farmers to innovate into other business including dairy. Yet the productivity of cows fed traditional diets is very poor, especially during the long dry season. This study combines earlier published results of farmer participatory experiments with simulation modelling to evaluate the lifetime productivity of cows under varying feeding strategies and the resulting economic performance at farm level. We compared the profitability of cotton production to the innovation of dairy. The results show that milk production of the West African Méré breed could be expanded if cows are supplemented and kept stall-fed during the dry season. This option seems to be profitable for better-off farmers, but whether dairy will replace (some of) the role of cotton as the white gold for these smallholder farmers will depend on the cross price elasticity of cotton and milk. Farmers may (partly) replace cotton production for fodder production to produce milk if the price of cotton remains poor (below US$0.35/kg) and the milk price relatively strong (higher than US$0.38/kg). Price ratios need to remain stable over several seasons given the investments required for a change in production strategy. Furthermore, farmers will only seize the opportunity to engage in dairy if marketing infrastructure and milk markets are further developed.     

Infection of the gonads of Glaucosoma hebvaicum by the nematode Philometva lateolabracis: occurrence and host response

The prevalence of infection of the West Australian dhufish Glaucosoma hebraicum off the lower west coast of Australia by Philometra lateolabracis was greater among females than males, which contrasts with the situation with Pagrus auratus in waters off New Zealand. Live P. lateolabracis were represented solely by females and were found only in the gonads of fish of mature size ( L ₅₀ at first maturity = c . 300 mm) caught between December and April and thus during the spawning period of dhufish. Since the gonads were largest during that period, they, and particularly ovaries, would provide an abundant food source in the form of blood. The prevalence of the parasite (live + dead individuals) increased with host body size to reach a maximum of c . 80% in the 700–799 mm length class of females and c . 50% in the largest length class of males. During the spawning period of G hebraicum, P. lateolabracis developed from small, non-gravid females to large gravid females, representing an increase in mass of more than 200 times. The maximum length of P. lateolabracis (470 mm) in G hebraicum is the greatest yet recorded for this species. Gonadosomatic indices provided no evidence that infection by P. lateolabracis leads to a conspicuous atrophy of the ovaries, which contrasts with the situation with the gonads of some of the teleosts infected by Philometra species, and presumably reflects, in part, the small volume of the ovary occupied by P. lateolabracis (c . 3%) and the low intensity of infection (mean = 2.0, maximum = 7). Although the presence of live P. lateolabracis did not stimulate an obvious tissue response by the ovaries during the spawning period of G. hebraicum , both the dead and any live parasites that remain after spawning become encapsulated in fibrous tissue.     

Vulnerability of early life intervals of Coregonus hoyi to predation by a freshwater mysid,Mysis relicta

Synopsis The bloater, Coregonus hoyi, deposits its eggs on deep sediments (70–100 m in Lake Michigan), where its eggs and embryos can be exposed to epibenthic predators. We investigated the vulnerability of early life intervals of bloaters to predation by mysids, Mysis relicta, which are mostly epibenthic by day and planktonic at night. Bloaters were raised from spawn in the laboratory and presented to field-collected mysids in laboratory predation trials. Eggs were not ingested by the mysids. Embryonic bloaters were vulnerable to predation by mysids only during the interval between hatching and swim up, usually 1–24 h under laboratory conditions. The mysids required about a day of exposure to this novel prey before they were able to kill significant numbers of the bloater embryos by making successive attacks with their thoracic legs. In experiments with experienced (2 and 3 days with bloater embryos) mysids, a functional response between embryo density and mysid predation rates was apparent. Temperature and the presence of alternative prey (zooplankton) did not alter the ‘kill rate’ (about 2.5 embryos mysid^-1d^-1) of experienced mysids at high bloater densities (>4 bloaters/mysid). However, more embryos were partially, rather than completely, ingested at 4 versus 9° C and in the presence of zooplankton.     

The distribution of Heterotrissocladius oliveri Saether (Diptera: Chironomidae) in Lake Michigan

Fifty one chironomid species were identified from 504 samples collected at depths ranging 8 to 267 m in Lake Michigan, U.S.A. Heterotrissocladius oliveri Saether occurred in 32% of these samples and had an average abundance of 22 m^–2 which was similar to other estimates from the Great Lakes. Maximum average lake-wide density was at 30 to 60 m (41 m^–2). At depths 60 m, H. oliveri was the dominant chironomid species comprising 75% of total Chironomidae. The substrate preference of H. oliveri differed within each depth regime considered: at 30–60 m, 2–3 ; at 60–120 m, 3–5 , 7–9 ; and at 120–180 m, 6–8 . Abundance was notably reduced at all depths in substrates characterized as medium silt (5–6 ). On a lake-wide basis, the distribution pattern suggested H. oliveri was most numerous from 30 to 60 m along the southwestern, eastern, and northern shorelines and at 60–120 m depths along the southern and eastern shorelines. Increased abundance in the South Basin was concurrent with evidence of increased sedimentation at 60 to 100 m. However, in several other areas of the lake, high densities were associated with medium to very fine sands relatively free of silts and clays. This observation suggested occurrence of H. oliveri was minimally affected by sediment type.Widely variable, but generally elevated water temperatures likely prevent H. oliveri from establishing a substantial population density at depths < 30 m. With increased depth, temperature fluctuation is negligible and food is more stable, though the source is variable. Factors limiting abundance of H. oliveri at depths 30 m were related to decreased food supply due to distance from shore, food sources of lower value (clays), and, most importantly, to reproductive replenishment.Although still oligotrophic in nature, high density occurrences in both high and low sedimentation areas of the lake suggest the trophic indicator status of H. oliveri might be broader than previously thought.