Response of three lotic assemblages to riparian and catchment‐scale land use: implications for designing catchment monitoring programmes

1. Although many studies have focussed on the effects of catchment land use on lotic systems, the importance of broad (catchment) and fine (segment/reach) scale effects on stream assemblages remain poorly understood. 2. Nine biological metrics for macrophytes (498 sites), benthic macroinvertebrates (491) and fish (478) of lowland and mountain streams in four ecoregions of France and Germany were related to catchment and riparian buffer land use using partial Redundancy Analysis and Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs). 3. Lotic fauna was better correlated (mean max., r = 0.450) than flora (r = 0.277) to both scales of land use: the strongest correlations were noted for mountain streams. BRTs revealed strong non‐linear relationships between mountain assemblage metrics and land use. Correlations increased with increasing buffer lengths, suggesting the importance of near‐stream land use on biotic assemblages. 4. Several metrics changed markedly between 10–20% (mountain ecoregions) and 40–45% (lowland) of arable land use, irrespective of the buffer size. At mountain sites with >10% catchment arable land use, metric values differed between sites with <30% and sites with >30% forest in the near‐stream riparian area. 5. These findings support the role of riparian land use in catchment management; however, differences between mountain and lowland ecoregions support the need for ecoregion‐specific management.     

Some analytical results about a simple reaction-diffusion system for morphogenesis

Summary The reaction-diffusion system considered involves only one nonlinear term and is a gradient system. In a bifurcation analysis for the equilibrium states, the global existence of infinitely many solution branches can be shown by the method of Ljusternik-Schnirelmann. Their stability is studied. Using a Ljapunov functional it can be shown that the solutions of the time-dependent system converge to the equilibrium states.     

Zero‐modified Poisson model: Bayesian approach,influence diagnostics,and an application to a Brazilian leptospirosis notification data

In this paper, a Bayesian method for inference is developed for the zero‐modified Poisson (ZMP) regression model. This model is very flexible for analyzing count data without requiring any information about inflation or deflation of zeros in the sample. A general class of prior densities based on an information matrix is considered for the model parameters. A sensitivity study to detect influential cases that can change the results is performed based on the Kullback–Leibler divergence. Simulation studies are presented in order to illustrate the performance of the developed methodology. Two real datasets on leptospirosis notification in Bahia State (Brazil) are analyzed using the proposed methodology for the ZMP model.     

Older than New Caledonia emergence? A molecular phylogenetic study of the eneopterine crickets (Orthoptera: Grylloidea)

Aim A New Caledonian insect group was studied in a world‐wide phylogenetic context to test: (1) whether local or regional island clades are older than 37 Ma, the postulated re‐emergence time of New Caledonia; (2) whether these clades show evidence for local radiations or multiple colonizations; and (3) whether there is evidence for relict taxa with long branches in phylogenetic trees that relate New Caledonian species to geographically distant taxa. Location New Caledonia, south‐west Pacific. Methods We sampled 43 cricket species representing all tribes of the subfamily Eneopterinae and 15 of the 17 described genera, focusing on taxa distributed in the South Pacific and around New Caledonia. One nuclear and three mitochondrial genes were analysed using Bayesian and parsimony methods. Phylogenetic divergence times were estimated using a relaxed clock method and several calibration criteria. Results The analyses indicate that, under the most conservative dating scenario, New Caledonian eneopterines are 5–16 million years old. The largest group in the Pacific region dates to 18–29 Ma. New Caledonia has been colonized in two phases: the first around 10.6 Ma, with the subsequent diversification of the endemic genus Agnotecous, and the second with more recent events around 1–4 Ma. The distribution of the sister group of Agnotecous and the lack of phylogenetic long branches in the genus refute an assumption of major extinction events in this clade and the hypothesis of local relicts. Main conclusions Our phylogenetic studies invalidate a simple scenario of local persistence of this group in New Caledonia since 80 Ma, either by survival on the New Caledonian island since its rift from Australia, or, if one accepts the submergence of New Caledonia, by local island‐hopping among other subaerial islands, now drowned, in the region during periods of New Caledonian submergence.     

Thinking systemically about ecological interventions: what do system archetypes teach us?

To address the need for more holistic approaches to ecological management and restoration, we examine ecosystem interventions through the lens of systems thinking and in reference to systems archetypes, as developed in relation to organizational management in the business world. Systems thinking is a holistic approach to analysis that focuses on how a system's constituent parts interrelate and how systems work over time and within the context of larger systems. Systems archetypes represent patterns of behavior that have been observed repeatedly. These archetypes help relate commonly observed responses to environmental problems with their effect on important feedback processes to better anticipate connections between actions and results. They highlight situations where perceived solutions actually result in worse or unintended consequences, and where changing goals may be either appropriate or inappropriate. The archetypes can be applied to practical examples, and can provide guidance to help make appropriate intervention decisions in similar circumstances. Their use requires stepping back from immediately obvious management decisions and taking a more systemic view of the situation. A catalog of archetypes that describe common patterns of systems behavior may inform management by helping to diagnose system dynamics earlier and identifying interactions among them.     

Connecting species’ geographical distributions to environmental variables: range maps versus observed points of occurrence

Connecting the geographical occurrence of a species with underlying environmental variables is fundamental for many analyses of life history evolution and for modeling species distributions for both basic and practical ends. However, raw distributional information comes principally in two forms: points of occurrence (specific geographical coordinates where a species has been observed), and expert-prepared range maps. Each form has potential short-comings: range maps tend to overestimate the true occurrence of a species, whereas occurrence points (because of their frequent non-random spatial distribution) tend to underestimate it. Whereas previous comparisons of the two forms have focused on how they may differ when estimating species richness, less attention has been paid to the extent to which the two forms actually differ in their representation of a species’ environmental associations. We assess such differences using the globally distributed avian order Galliformes (294 species). For each species we overlaid range maps obtained from IUCN and point-of-occurrence data obtained from GBIF on global maps of four climate variables and elevation. Over all species, the median difference in distribution centroids was 234 km, and median values of all five environmental variables were highly correlated, although there were a few species outliers for each variable. We also acquired species’ elevational distribution mid-points (mid-point between minimum and maximum elevational extent) from the literature; median elevations from point occurrences and ranges were consistently lower (median −420 m) than mid-points. We concluded that in most cases occurrence points were likely to produce better estimates of underlying environmental variables than range maps, although differences were often slight. We also concluded that elevational range mid-points were biased high, and that elevation distributions based on either points or range maps provided better estimates.     

Assessment of exploited fish species in the Lake Edward System,East Africa

The unknown status of inland fish stocks hinders their sustainable management. Therefore, increasing stock status information is important for sustainable inland fisheries. Fisheries reference points were estimated for five exploited fish species (11 stocks) in the Lake Edward system, East Africa, which is one of the most productive inland water systems. The aim was to ascertain the status of the fisheries and establish reference points for effective management. The reference points were based on four linked stock assessment approaches for data-limited fisheries. Estimates showed poor stock status with the stocks defined as either collapsed, recruitment impaired or overfished. However, higher catches could be obtained under sustainable management. Estimates of maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and supporting biomass (B_msy) are provided for 10 of the stocks as targets for rebuilding plans. The immediate target of management should be rebuilding biomass to B_msy. Applicable measures include shifting length at first capture to the length that maximizes catch without endangering size structure and biomass, and livelihood diversification out of fisheries.