Expected utility maximization and selection of stable plant cultivars

Summary In most plant breeding programs, selection of the best commercially suitable cultivars for a target group of environments is based on information obtained from evaluation trials cultivated in a sample of environments. Information on the performance of cultivars collected in a sample of environments can only be approximate and, consequently, selection of the best cultivar involves choosing among cultivars that respond uncertainly in many environments. The agronomic and/or economic value of a cultivar across environments may be considered the general or overall utility of the cultivar. Data from a sample of environments therefore provides only an estimate of any cultivar's overall utility, with the overall goal of selection among all cultivars being the maximization of the expected utility. Within this frame-work, expected utility maximization, an approach to decision making that has been well developed in the disciplines of economics and statistics, can assist the plant breeder in making such decisions. This research was initiated (1) to determine how expected utility maximization might be used to develop indices that are useful for selecting broadly adapted plant cultivars, and (2) to determine how the breeder's preferences might affect choice of the best cultivar. The data used in this research were from USDA Regional Soybean Tests. The results indicated that expected utility maximization, which explicitly incorporates into the selection rule the plant breeder's preferences regarding stability, can be a useful aid in the selection of stable plant cultivars.     

ROC-based utility function maximization for feature selection and classification with applications to high-dimensional protease data

SUMMARY: In medical diagnosis, the diseased and nondiseased classes are usually unbalanced and one class may be more important than the other depending on the diagnosis purpose. Most standard classification methods, however, are designed to maximize the overall accuracy and cannot incorporate different costs to different classes explicitly. In this article, we propose a novel nonparametric method to directly maximize the weighted specificity and sensitivity of the receiver operating characteristic curve. Combining advances in machine learning, optimization theory, and statistics, the proposed method has excellent generalization property and assigns different error costs to different classes explicitly. We present experiments that compare the proposed algorithms with support vector machines and regularized logistic regression using data from a study on HIV-1 protease as well as six public available datasets. Our main conclusion is that the performance of proposed algorithm is significantly better in most cases than the other classifiers tested. Software package in MATLAB is available upon request.     

小麦-冰草衍生系3228主要产量性状的遗传分析

为了探讨小麦-冰草(Agropyron cristatum)衍生系3228的多粒(66～82粒/穗)特性在育种中的可利用性,本研究以3228与黄淮冬麦区5个主栽品种进行杂交,并将其杂种F_1分别种植于北京、陕西和四川,采用MINQUE(1)统计方法及AD模型对主要产量性状进行了遗传分析。在研究的6个产量性状中,均存在极显著的加性方差比率,普通广义遗传率在产量性状的遗传中所占比例较大,所有性状的遗传均存在加性和环境的互作。特别值得指出的是,3228在穗粒数方面具有极显著的加性和显性效应,在穗长、小穗数方面也具有极显著的加性效应,说明利用该种质对于提高小麦的穗粒数具有重要作用。     

A mathematical approach towards nitrogen cycling in arable land inCajanus cajan field

Summary A balance sheet of nitrogen has been presented for an arable land in aCajanus cajan field. Quantitative inventory and transfer rates are suggested for several compartments. On the basis of data, it has been concluded that due to microbial activities appreciable nitrogen was returned to the available nitrogen pool by means of root and litter disappearance. Twenty-five percent of the total soil nitrogen has been taken up by fine roots, out of which 63.39 percent nitrogen locked up in the form of organic nitrogen and the rest of nitrogen (36.61%) was being added to the soil which governed the soil fertility. Transfer matrix of process model for the nitrogen transformation explaining component transferred from one compartment to another compartment and groups responsible for this transformation are dealt with. By means of several proposed equations the amount of nitrogen in soil at different intervals of time can be predicted. The quantifications of microbial transformations and their role in nitrogen turnover has been exploited. A high nitrogen content in the original material was found to promote decomposition.     

Reconciling sexual selection to species recognition: a process-based model of mating decision

Mating signals often encode information important for both species recognition and mate quality assessment and endure selection pressures that combine both stabilizing and directional components. Here, we present a family of models of mate preference for multiple-message signals. Our models are process based rather than purely normative, they assume the existence of one (or more) "utility function" that order signals along a scale of perceived appropriateness, and interpret preferences either as the differential probability of signals recognition or as the combined effect of differential recognition and direct comparison between signal alternatives. These models show the critical role played by the proximate mechanisms of information processing in influencing the ultimate function of female mate choice. They show that if preferences are an emergent property of the way animals recognize signals then species recognition and mate quality assessment are expected to constrain each other severely and to limit the overall discrimination power of the system. In contrast, if preferences result from two computational processes, recognition and comparison, the constraining effects of species recognition and mate quality assessment are sensibly reduced. In these cases, females may improve discrimination in mate quality by adopting permissive recognition rules and limiting the risks of heterospecific mating.     

固定核空间法和最小凸多边形法估计藏狐家域的比较

最小凸多边形法(MCP)和固定核空间法(FKE)是目前最常用的家域计算方法,但受空间自相关性、偏远位点等问题的影响,两种方法均存在明显的局限性。本文根据2006 年和2007 年在四川省石渠县和青海省都兰县的7 只藏狐352 个活动位点数据,分析MCP 和FKE 家域估计的效果和存在的问题。结果显示:(1)利用概率百分比≤95% 时,MCP 计算结果和FKE 没有显著差异;(2)极端点对高百分比(85% ～ 100% ) 下MCP影响显著,而FKE 对极端点影响控制较好;(3)FKE 家域外形复杂,计算结果受平滑度系数设置影响显著。因此,研究领域行为时,应同时使用FKE 和95% MCP 两种方法。当数据分布较理想时,FKE 能够给出更为准确的面积估计,而MCP 则因其通用性,使得研究数据与其他研究的结果更具可比性。
     

A versatile policy toolkit supporting run-time policy reconfiguration

This paper describes an autonomics development tool which serves as both a powerful and flexible policy-expression language and a policy-based framework that supports the integration and dynamic composition of several autonomic computing techniques including signal processing, automated trend analysis and utility functions. Each of these technologies has specific advantages and applicability to different types of dynamic adaptation. The AGILE platform enables seamless interoperability of the different technologies to each perform various aspects of self-management within a single application. Self-management behaviour is specified using the policy language semantics to bind the various technologies together as required. Since the policy semantics support run-time re-configuration, the self-management architecture is dynamically composable. The policy language and implementation library have integrated support for self-stabilising behaviour, enabling oscillation and other forms of instability to be handled at the policy level with very little effort on the part of the application developer. Example applications are presented to illustrate the integration of different autonomics techniques, and the achievement of dynamic composition.

Risk-aware limited lookahead control for dynamic resource provisioning in enterprise computing systems

Utility or on-demand computing, a provisioning model where a service provider makes computing infrastructure available to customers as needed, is becoming increasingly common in enterprise computing systems. Realizing this model requires making dynamic, and sometimes risky, resource provisioning and allocation decisions in an uncertain operating environment to maximize revenue while reducing operating cost. This paper develops an optimization framework wherein the resource provisioning problem is posed as one of sequential decision making under uncertainty and solved using a limited lookahead control scheme. The proposed approach accounts for the switching costs incurred during resource provisioning and explicitly encodes risk in the optimization problem. Simulations using workload traces from the Soccer World Cup 1998 web site show that a computing system managed by our controller generates up to 20% more profit than a system without dynamic control while incurring low control overhead.