Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of West Java Water Sustainability Index – A case study on Citarum catchment in Indonesia

Water sustainability indices have been recently used to measure the sustainability of water resources within a catchment. Developing a sustainability index involves various steps, some of which have uncertainties associated with them. For the recently developed West Java Water Sustainability Index (WJWSI), three sources of uncertainties were identified, namely uncertainties in the thresholds of non-categorical indicators and sub-indicators, in the weighting schemes, and in the aggregation methods. This paper presents the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of WJWSI, based on the application of WJWSI to Citarum catchment in West Java, Indonesia. The results of the uncertainty analysis, measured by the coefficient of variation of the thresholds and the sub-indices, indicates that minimum thresholds of Land Use Changes, Coverage, Education, Poverty, Health Impact and Sanitation, and the maximum threshold of Water Quality have higher variation when compared to variation of the other thresholds. The results of the sensitivity analysis, measured by the correlation coefficients between the final index and the thresholds, indicate that changes in the thresholds of WJWSI indicators have not significantly affected the sub-index values of most indicators and sub-indicators. The sensitivity analysis also concluded that either the equal or non-equal weighting scheme can be used for future use of the aggregation of WJWSI indicators and sub-indicators, as changes from equal to non-equal weighting scheme did not significantly affect the final index. However, it was found that the final index values were most sensitive to the aggregation method used (i.e. arithmetic and geometric methods), shown by the significant changes in the final index value when the aggregation method was changed from arithmetic to geometric. The uncertainty and sensitivity analysis presented in this study will not just assist in the efficient use of the WJWSI, but will also help undertake similar analysis for other indices.     

The Effects of Aging on Information-Processing Channels in the Sense of Touch: I. Absolute Sensitivity

Thresholds for detecting vibrotactile signals of variable frequency applied to the thenar eminence of the hand by small and large contactors were measured in subjects ranging in age from 10 to 89 years. Thresholds were found to increase as a function of age, but the rate of increase was greater after than before the age of 65 years. The rate of loss of vibrotactile sensitivity was substantially greater in the P channel (mediated by Pacinian corpuscles) than in the NP I channel (mediated by rapidly adapting fibers), the NP II channel (mediated by slowly adapting type II fibers), or the NP HI channel (mediated by slowly adapting type I fibers). Women were frequently found to have greater sensitivity than men.     

Temporal changes in the egglaying behaviour of the Hessian fly

Responses of mated female Hessian flies were investigated by analysing the behaviour of individual flies in wheat and oats. The behavioural repertoire of such females included: flying, alighting on leaves, arching of the body so that the tip of the abdomen touched the leaf surface, antennation, movements of the tip of the abdomen across the leaf at right angles to leaf veins, sitting with the ovipositor straight but still extended, and sitting with the ovipositor telescoped into the body. After alighting, females on wheat showed a higher frequency of transitions from arching to antennation and a lower frequency of transitions from arching to abdomen straight than females on oats. During the first 5 min of observations, individuals released into arenas with wheat arched and antennated 2–3 times more frequently than females released into oats. Time allotted to behaviours also differed; during the first 5 min, females in wheat spent 50 percent more time arching, whereas females in oats spent 50 percent more time sitting. Females in wheat also stayed longer and laid 4 times more eggs than females in oats. Temporal changes in egglaying were monitored by quantifying hourly rates of egglaying in no-choice assays for several hours following mating at 9:00 am. During the first and second hours post-mating, egglaying occurred infrequently. However, during the third hour post-mating (11:00 am to noon) females on wheat laid 5 times more eggs than females on oats. Rates of egglaying decreased on wheat but increased on oats during the fourth hour, and then during the fifth hour, decreased on both wheat and oats. Changes in egglaying responses were also evident when behaviours of individual females were measured 1–3 h vs. 3–7 h post-mating. Females deprived of host plants and released into wheat or oats later in the day showed higher frequencies of arching and antennation and laid more eggs before leaving the arena.

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Résumé Les réactions de femelles préalablement accouplées de Mouches de Hesse ont été examinées en analysant le comportement de femelles isolées sur blé et sur avoine. Le répertoire comportemental de ces femelles comprenait: le vol, l'atterrissage sur feuille, la flexion du corps de sorte que l'extrémité de l'abdomen touchât la surface de la feuille, l'antennation, les mouvements de l'extrémité de l'abdomen sur la feuille à angle droit des nervures, le repos avec la tarière droite et encore dévaginée, le repos avec la tarière télescopée à l'intérieur du corps. Sur blé plus que sur avoine, les femelles après atterrissage ont présenté une fréquence plus élevée de passage de la flexion à l'antennation que de la flexion à l'abdomen droit. Durant les 5 premières minutes d'observation, les individus libérés dans des enceintes avec blé fléchirent et antennèrent 2 à 3 fois plus que ceux libérés sur avoine. Les durées des différentes séquences différaient aussi: sur blé, pendant les 5 premières minutes, les femelles passèrent plus de 50% du temps à fléchir, tandis que sur avoine elles passèrent plus de 50% du temps en repos. Les femelles restèrent aussi plus longtemps sur les feuilles de blé et y pondirent 4 fois plus d'oeufs que sur avoine.Les femelles de M. destructor ont montré une plasticité du seuil d'acceptation. Pendant les premières heures de ponte, elles ont été très sélectives et refusèrent, ou ne pondirent que quelques oeufs sur avoine, mais acceptèrent volontiers le blé. La discrimination s'est poursuivie tant que les femelles ont eu accès au blé en même temps qu'à l'avoine. Cependant, quand les femelles ont été privées de blé pendant plusieures heures, l'acceptation de l'avoine a augmenté. Cet accroissement de l'acceptation a eu lieu à peu près au moment où les femelles sur blé pondaient leurs derniers oeufs.

     

Aestival dormancy in the cabbage moth Mamestra brassicae L. (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae)

Summary In a geographically wide distribution the life cycles of different populations of the cabbage moth Mamestra brossicae are adapted to a remarkable diversity of climatic conditions. This is undoubtedly a proof of its success in adaptation. Some populations living in regions characterized by a drought period interrupting the growth season are capable of distinguishing between one critical day length signalling the onset of the drought period and another signalling the end of the growth season. This study, therefore, is primarily concerned with the geographical patterns in the variability of the adaptional responses of populations exposed to environmental conditions requiring different strategies and tactics in, synchronizing individual, life cycles. It is also a contribution to our understanding of evolutionary mechanisms maintaining median responses to photoperiodically inductive day lengths in geographically different populations. The populations investigated originated from regions differing in predictability of the incidence, onset and duration of a drought period: Freiburg (48.0°N, Southern Germany), Avignon (44.0°N, Southern France), and Argelès (42.5°N, Southern France). Geographical variation with respect to both onset and duration of a drought period consequently results in clinal variation of the variability of innate day length thresholds triggering aestival dormancy and of innate duration of aestivation. In this paper we considered the influence of geographically changing temperatures on aestival dormancy induction. Even in southern populations of M. brassicae a temperature dependent switch off-mechanism exists which prevents aestival dormancy under certain environmental conditions. The effective temperatures vary geographically, too. What the geographical patterns in adaptive responses really are, is discussed.This research was supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (Sa 259/3-1)     

The habitat diversity and fish reproductive function of floodplain ecosystems

Synopsis Fish reproduction in floodplain ecosystems, based on relative abundance and total biomass of 0+ juveniles, was studied using the synchronic approach to typological analysis in conjunction with Point Abundance Sampling by modified electrofishing. In 3 different flood plains of the Upper Rhône River, 1015 point samples yielding 4573 juveniles (0+) from 21 species were collected from 48 ecosystems of various geomorphological origin. The results demonstrate the lotic-to-lentic succession of floodplain ecosystems to be a series of non-sequential reproductive zones, with spawning conditions being reflected by the specific composition and guild structure of the YOY fish assemblages. The habitat diversity and the fish reproductive potential of floodplain ecosystems are strongly influenced by geomorphological origin and by past and present hydrological conditions. The YOY assemblages of autogenically driven ecosystems (usually of anastomose or meander origin) tend to differ both in composition and in quantity from those found in allogenically driven ecosystems (generally of braided origin). Ecosystems of intermediate character, and fish reproduction thereof, occur as the result of either ecosystem rejuvenation or senescence: autogenically driven ecosystems by allogenic mechanisms, or allogenically driven ecosystems by anthropic and/or autogenic mechanisms, respectively. Because of co-occurrence of ecosystems at similar and at different successional status, the flood plain as an entity is seen as stable with respect to fish reproduction.     

Summer Epidemics of Apple Scab: The Relationship between Measurements and their Implications for the Development of Predictive Models and Threshold Levels under Different Disease Control Regimes

A 2‐year study on epidemic progress of apple scab was conducted at Randwijk, the Netherlands, in 1998 and 1999. The summer epidemic caused by conidia was studied instead of the well‐described spring season epidemic originating from ascospores. The aim was to investigate relationships between disease measurements, i.e. disease incidence and severity measures of apple scab, and their implications for the development of predictive models and threshold levels. The study characterized good relationships between the measurements on cultivar Jonagold using regression analyses in three disease control regimes (untreated, organic and integrated). For fruit quality prediction, the relationship between fruit incidence (I_f) and leaf incidence (I_l) in the organic control regime was given by I_f = 1.966 + 0.402 × (I_l) (R² = 0.92). As a result of low level of disease in the integrated control regime, shoot incidence (I_s), with higher values than leaf incidence, was better suited for prediction. The relationship was given by I_f = ?0.162 + 0.028 × (I_s) (R² = 0.91). For the integrated control regime, disease threshold levels were constructed for timing of the final fungicide application. If an apple grower wants to keep fruit infection under 1% incidence (harvest scab threshold), the timing of the final fungicide application (action threshold) should correspond to 4% shoot scab incidence at the beginning of August. The results are compared with similar studies and their biological interpretation is discussed.     

稻鸭共作有机农业模式的能值评估

应用能值分析方法对稻鸭共作有机农业模式（模式Ⅰ）和对应的稻麦常规生产模式（模式Ⅱ）进行比较研究,并比较了两种模式的生态经济效益.结果表明,模式Ⅰ的能值效益高,自组织能力、可持续发展能力强,产品安全性高,净能值产出率（EYR）、系统产出能值反馈率（FYE）、能值可持续指标（ESI）分别是模式Ⅱ的1.57、14.1和8.71倍;基于能值的产品安全性指标（EIPS）模式Ⅰ为0,模式Ⅱ为-0.66;模式Ⅰ对环境的压力小于模式Ⅱ,能值投资率（EIR）,环境负载率（ELR）分别是模式Ⅱ的40.1%和18.3%;但模式Ⅰ的经济效益低于模式Ⅱ,其产出、毛收入和净效益分别低于模式Ⅱ15.7%、9.6%和29.6%;以能值 货币价值计算,模式Ⅰ的产投比、毛收入和净收入分别高于模式Ⅱ50%、102.6%和136.4%.随着生产系统的优化和市场对有机食品认知程度的提高,模式Ⅰ的经济效益具有提高的潜力.     

Perspectives of microbial oils for biodiesel production

Biodiesel has become more attractive recently because of its environmental benefits, and the fact that it is made from renewable resources. Generally speaking, biodiesel is prepared through transesterification of vegetable oils or animal fats with short chain alcohols. However, the lack of oil feedstocks limits the large-scale development of biodiesel to some extent. Recently, much attention has been paid to the development of microbial, oils and it has been found that many microorganisms, such as algae, yeast, bacteria, and fungi, have the ability to accumulate oils under some special cultivation conditions. Compared to other plant oils, microbial oils have many advantages, such as short life cycle, less labor required, less affection by venue, season and climate, and easier to scale up. With the rapid expansion of biodiesel, microbial oils might become one of potential oil feedstocks for biodiesel production in the future, though there are many works associated with microorganisms producing oils need to be carried out further. This review is covering the related research about different oleaginous microorganisms producing oils, and the prospects of such microbial oils used for biodiesel production are also discussed.     

Environmental predictability of taxonomic and functional community composition in high‐latitude streams

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