ESTIMATING PUP PRODUCTION OF HARP SEALS, PAGOPHILUS GROENLANDICUS, IN THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC

Photographic and visual aerial surveys to determine current pup production of Northwest Atlantic harp seals were conducted off Newfoundland and in the Gulf of St. Lawrence during March 1999-Photographic surveys were conducted on all whelping concentrations between 14 and 24 March, whereas a visual survey was made of the southern Gulf concentrations on 14 March. Pup production was estimated to be 739,100 (SE = 96,300, CV = 13.0%) at the Front, 82,600 (SE = 22,500, CV = 27.2%) in the northern Gulf, and 176,200 (SE = 25,400, CV = 14.4%) in the southern Gulf (Magdalen Island) for a total of 997,900 (SE = 102,100, 10.2%). Changes in aerial survey estimates indicate that pup production has increased since 1994. A new method to correct for the temporal change in the proportion of pups present on the ice was examined by fitting the percentage of pups observed in three age-dependent stages to a Normal distribution. The results were compared to those obtained from a more complex model used previously. The Simple model produced slightly higher, and hence more conservative, estimates of the proportion of births that had occurred before the time of the survey than the Complex model. When using the Simple model fewer assumptions regarding the start date of pupping and the proportion of older pups remaining on the ice were required, the herd had to be followed for a shorter period, and a more convenient means of calculating confidence limits was available.     

Climate change and cyclic predator–prey population dynamics in the high Arctic

The high Arctic has the world's simplest terrestrial vertebrate predator–prey community, with the collared lemming being the single main prey of four predators, the snowy owl, the Arctic fox, the long-tailed skua, and the stoat. Using a 20-year-long time series of population densities for the five species and a dynamic model that has been previously parameterized for northeast Greenland, we analyzed the population and community level consequences of the ongoing and predicted climate change. Species' responses to climate change are complex, because in addition to the direct effects of climate change, which vary depending on species' life histories, species are also affected indirectly due to, e.g., predator–prey interactions. The lemming–predator community exemplifies these complications, yet a robust conclusion emerges from our modeling: in practically all likely scenarios of how climate change may influence the demography of the species, climate change increases the length of the lemming population cycle and decreases the maximum population densities. The latter change in particular is detrimental to the populations of the predators, which are adapted to make use of the years of the greatest prey abundance. Therefore, climate change will indirectly reduce the predators' reproductive success and population densities, and may ultimately lead to local extinction of some of the predator species. Based on these results, we conclude that the recent anomalous observations about lack of cyclic lemming dynamics in eastern Greenland may well be the first signs of a severe impact of climate change on the lemming–predator communities in Greenland and elsewhere in the high Arctic.     

A data-driven demographic model to explore the decline of the Bathurst caribou herd

The Bathurst herd of barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) in the Canadian central arctic declined from an estimated 203,800 to 16,400 breeding females from 1986 to 2009, with the most rapid decline from 2006 to 2009. A key research and management question was whether the decline was mainly due to decreases in productivity alone or also due to reduced adult female survival. Investigating causes of the decline was hampered by a lack of direct estimates of caribou demographic parameters. We developed a demographic model that could be objectively fitted to field data to explore the mechanisms for the Bathurst decline, with a focus on the recent accelerated decline from 2006 to 2009. Our modeling indicated that the decline was driven by increasing negative trends in adult female and calf survival rates and possibly reduced fecundity The effect of a constant hunter harvest on the declining herd was one potential cause for the recent accelerated decline in adult survival. The demographic model detected negative trends in adult female survival that were not detected using standalone analyses of collar-based survival data. The model allowed rigorous interpretation of trends in productivity by controlling for the simultaneous influence of trends in adult, calf, and yearling survival and adult fecundity on field-based calf–cow ratios. Stochastic simulations suggested that large increases in adult survival and productivity would be needed for the herd to recover. Our methods enable objective modeling of caribou demography that can assist in caribou management based upon all sources of available data. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Maternal effects and additive genetic inheritance in the collared lemming Dicrostonyx groenlandicus

We examined patterns of inheritance of size, growth and behavioural traits of collared lemmings (Dicrostonyx groenlandicus). Work was conducted on field-caught parents from the Canadian Arctic and their lab-born progeny. We partitioned inherited variance in traits into additive genetic and maternal effects components by using a half-sib breeding experiment in which each sire was mated to two dams. We found no evidence of statistically significant amounts of additive genetic variance in any of the traits measured. However, significant maternal effects were detected for several size- and growth-related traits. Three behavioural traits involving aggression, dispersal and activity showed no statistically significant inheritance of any kind. The presence of maternal effects may have consequences for population dynamics by causing lags resulting in inappropriate phenotypes being produced under regimes of fluctuating selection pressure. We recommend that maternal effects should be investigated as a potential general cause of population cycles in small mammals.     

Variation in Serripes groenlandicus (Bivalvia) growth in a Norwegian high-Arctic fjord: evidence for local- and large-scale climatic forcing

We examined the growth rate of the circumpolar Greenland Cockle ( Serripes groenlandicus ) over a period of 20 years (1983–2002) from Rijpfjord, a high-Arctic fjord in northeast Svalbard (80°10'N, 22°15'E). This period encompassed different phases of large-scale climatic oscillations with accompanying variations in local physical variables (temperature, atmospheric pressure, precipitation, sea ice cover), allowing us to analyze the linkage between growth rate, climatic oscillations, and their local physical and biological manifestations. Standard growth index (SGI), an ontogenetically adjusted measure of annual growth, ranged from a low of 0.27 in 2002 up to 2.46 in 1996. Interannual variation in growth corresponded to the Arctic climate regime index (ACRI), with high growth rates during the positive ACRI phase characterized by cyclonic ocean circulation and a warmer and wetter climate. Growth rates were influenced by local manifestations of the ACRI: positively correlated with precipitation and to a lesser extent negatively correlated with atmospheric pressure. A multiple regression model explains 65% of the variability in growth rate by the ACRI and precipitation at the nearest meteorological station. There were, however, complexities in the relationship between growth and physical variables, including an apparent 1 year lag between physical forcing changes and biological response. Also, when the last 4 years of poor growth are excluded, there is a very strong negative correlation with ice cover on a pan-arctic scale. Our results suggest that bivalves, as sentinels of climate change on multi-decadal scales, are sensitive to environmental variations associated with large-scale changes in climate, but that the effects will be determined by changes in environmental parameters regulating marine production and food availability on a local scale.     

Spatial structure of lemming populations (Dicrostonyx groenlandicus) fluctuating in density

The pattern and scale of the genetic structure of populations provides valuable information for the understanding of the spatial ecology of populations, including the spatial aspects of density fluctuations. In the present paper, the genetic structure of periodically fluctuating lemmings (Dicrostonyx groenlandicus) in the Canadian Arctic was analysed using mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region sequences and four nuclear microsatellite loci. Low genetic variability was found in mtDNA, while microsatellite loci were highly variable in all localities, including localities on isolated small islands. For both genetic markers the genetic differentiation was clear among geographical regions but weaker among localities within regions. Such a pattern implies gene flow within regions. Based on theoretical calculations and population census data from a snap-trapping survey, we argue that the observed genetic variability on small islands and the low level of differentiation among these islands cannot be explained without invoking long distance dispersal of lemmings over the sea ice. Such dispersal is unlikely to occur only during population density peaks.     

THERMAL FUNCTION OF PHOCID SEAL FUR

In phocid seals, blubber serves as the main thermal insulation instead of fur. The thermal function of fur, at least in adult phocid seals, has therefore been questioned. We measured the relative contribution of fur to the combined thermal resistance (insulation) offered by blubber, skin, and fur in newborn and adult harp ( Pagophilus groenlandicus ) and hooded ( Cystophora cristata ) seals, in air and water, to elucidate the role of fur as insulation in phocid seals. In air the fur contributed 90% of the combined thermal resistance of blubber, skin, and fur in newborn harp seal pups and 29% in adulrs, whereas in hooded seals the fur contributed 73% in newborn pups and 34% in adults. When submerged the thermal resistance of the fur was reduced by 84%-92%, and contributed 65% to the total insulation in newborn harp seal pups and 3% in adults, and 26% in newborn hooded seal pups and 5% in adults. We conclude that in air the fur of phocid seals makes an important contribution to the insulation of pups, and also contributes considerably to the insulation of adult animals. In water, even though the thermal resistance of the fur is dramatically reduced, the fur still contributes substantially to the insulation of pups, but its contribution in adults is negligible.