Evaluating the impacts of wood production and trade on bird extinction risks

Biodiversity loss can be accelerated by human consumption in regions that are far removed from habitat degradation because of economic globalization, but no study has directly quantified the effects of global trade on extinction risks at a global scale with consideration for species differences. We propose a novel biodiversity footprint index based on bird extinction risks to evaluate the effects of global wood production and trade on biodiversity. Using 536 endangered bird species threatened by wood harvesting and logging, we calculated the “quasi-extinction” probabilities, that is, the probabilities that population sizes become lower than an extinction threshold after habitat loss based on initial population sizes and forest habitat loss rates. We then used bilateral wood trade data to link the biodiversity impacts in wood exporters to wood importers. We found that if recent trends in forest cover loss continue until 2100, bird species in Brazil would be the most rapidly and heavily affected by wood production and trade, followed by those in Indonesia; these two countries alone would account for about half of all global bird extinctions. Large-scale wood importers (i.e., China, Japan, and the United States) significantly elevate overseas extinction risks and, simultaneously, reduce domestic impacts, indicating a heavy responsibility of these countries for global biodiversity loss. We also conducted a scenario analysis, which showed that the total projected number of extinct species would not decrease if each country produced the amount of wood materials necessary to meet current consumption levels. This is because bird extinction risks in tropical wood importers, such as Mexico and the Philippines, as well as Japan and China will increase if these countries increase domestic wood production. Our biodiversity footprint index is useful to identify countries whose bird species are highly affected by wood production and trade, and to quantify the role of wood trade in bird species extinctions. Additional scenario analyses are needed to establish effective patterns of wood production and consumption for bird biodiversity conservation.     

The height of Tennessee convicts: another piece of the “antebellum puzzle”

Average height of the free population in the United States born in the mid-1830s began to decline despite growing per capita incomes. Explanations for this "antebellum puzzle" revolve around a possibly deteriorating disease environment promoted by urban agglomeration and increases in the relative price of protein-rich foods. However, several groups were immune to the effect, including members of the middle class, whose income was high enough, and increased enough to overcome the adverse developments and maintain their nutritional status. Although at the opposite end of the social spectrum, the height of male slaves also increased, as it was in their owners' interest to raise their slaves' food allotments. The height of Tennessee convicts, analyzed in this article, also increased in the late-1830s, being the third exception to the "antebellum puzzle." Mid-19th century Tennessee was integrated into interstate commerce in cotton and tobacco and experienced considerable movement of people who would have brought with them diseases from elsewhere, hence, it would have been integrated into the US disease pool, and the fact that heights did not decline in the 1830s is therefore an indication that the antebellum puzzle cannot be explained exclusively by the spread of diseases. Yet, Tennessee's economy was quite different to that of the rest of the country. Although it did export live swine to the South, these exports did not increase during the antebellum decades. Hence, Tennessee remained self-sufficient in pork, and consumption of pork did not decline. Thus, the evidence presented here is consistent with the economic interpretation of the "antebellum puzzle": self-sufficiency in protein production protected even the members of the lower-classes of Tennessee from the negative externalities associated with the onset of industrialization.