Values,Errors, and Precautions

In the environmental health literature, errors in interpreting studies or data are not infrequent. Many are of the Type II variety. Common solecisms of this type are: treating the criterion of p < 0.05 as a sacrament; demanding complete confounder control; arguing for the existence of phantom confounders; arguing that the effect size is trivial; building nonveridical models; arguing for no effect from inadequate sample size; demanding causal proof; arguing that causality is reversed; conducting a ballot of published studies. These are examined in this paper.     

Volume estimation of biological objects by systematic sections

The absolute volume of biological objects is often estimated stereologically from an exhaustive set of systematic sections. The usual volume estimator is the sum of the section contents times the distance between sections. For systematic sectioning with a random start, it has been recently shown that is unbiased when m, the ratio between projected object length and section distance, is an integer number (Cruz-Orive 1985). As this quantity is no integer in the real world, we have explored the properties of in the general and realistic situation m . The unbiasedness of under appropriate sampling conditions is demonstrated for the arbitrary compact set in 3 dimensions by a rigorous proof. Exploration of further properties of for the general triaxial ellipsoid leads to a new class of non-elementary real functions with common formal structure which we denote as np-functions. The relative mean square error (CE ²) of in ellipsoids is an oscillating differentiable np-function, which reduces to the known result CE ²= 1/(5m ⁴) for integer m. As a biological example the absolute volumes of 10 left cardiac ventricles and their internal cavities were estimated from systematic sections. Monte Carlo simulation of replicated systematic sectioning is shown to be improved by using m instead of m . In agreement with the geometric model of ellipsoids with some added shape irregularities, mean empirical CE was proportional to m ^–1.36 and m^–1.73 in the cardiac ventricle and its cavity. The considerable variance reduction by systematic sectioning is shown to be a geometric realization of the principle of antithetic variates.     

Experimental study of the influence of errors of genetic correlation estimates on unrestricted,optimum, and desired gains selection indices

Summary Effects of errors in estimates of the genetic correlation on the accuracy of unrestricted, optimum, and desired gains selection indices were examined experimentally in Tribolium castaneum. Three lines were selected for three generations for pupal weight at 21 days and adult weight at 31 days, using unrestricted (I9), optimum (O9), and desired gains (G9) index selection methods. The genetic correlation between pupal and adult weights in the base population was 0.95. The optimum index was designed to set the response of pupal weight by a fixed amount, while in the desired gains index the responses of pupal and adult weights were specified as being equal to 31. Three other indices were constructed using a deliberately incorrect genetic correlation (0.25), i.e., unrestricted (I2), optimum (O2), and desired gains (G2). Responses observed in unrestricted index lines (I9 versus I2) and optimum index lines (O9 versus O2) did not differ significantly, even though lines I9 and I2 differed in a practical sense. Responses in desired gains index lines (G9 versus G2) differed significantly. Responses obtained for aggregate genotype (pupal weight + adult weight) and for the component traits were greater in line I9 than those obtained in line I2. Responses obtained in the O9 and O2 lines for pupal and adult weights were similar, while those obtained in the G9 and G2 lines were similar for pupal weight but not (P<0.05) for adult weight. Therefore, underestimation of the genetic correlation seems to affect the efficiency of a desired gains index more than that of unrestricted or optimum indices.     

Identification of minor tightly bound H1 histone subfractions which fail to cleave their initiator methionine

Groups of CBA mice were administered [³⁵S] methionine (1 mCi/mouse). Non-histone proteins, H1 and H1⁰ histones and nucleosomal core histones were isolated from different issues by selective extractions. The measurements of radioactivity of individual bands and autoradiography of dry gels were used to identify methionine-containing and methionine-free histone variants. H1A and H1B histone variants extracted with 5% perchloric acid were methionine-free. However, minor sub-fractions of these histones which are more tightly bound to DNA (and which can be extracted only with 0.25 N HC1) contained [³⁵S] methionine and did show a higher specific activity than methionine-containing nucleosomal hitones. Cyanogen Bromide reaction which destroys non-histone proteins and methionine-containing nucleosomal histones removes radioactivity but does not alter the position of methionine-containing H1 minor bands. This indicates that the radioactive methionine occupies only the N-terminus of the H1 molecules. It is suggested that this methionine is an uncleaved initiator methionine. The presence of these methionine-containing minor H1 subfractions varies in different tissues.     

Strand targeting signal(s) for in vivo mutation avoidance by post-replication mismatch repair in Escherichia coli

Summary The involvement of GATC sites in directing mismatch correction for the elimination of replication errors in Escherichia coli was investigated in vivo by analyzing mutation rates for a gene carried on a series of related plasmids that contain 2, 1 and 0 such sites. This gene encoding chloramphenicol acetyl transferase (Cat protein) was inactivated by a point mutation. In vivo mutations restoring resistance to chloramphenicol were scored in mismatch repair proficient (mut ⁺) and deficient (mutHLS^-) strains. In mut ⁺ cells, reduction of GATC sites from 2 to 0 increased mutation rates approximately 10-fold. Removal of the GATC site distal to the cat ^- mutation increased the rate of mutation less than 2-fold, indicating that mismatch repair can proceed normally with a single site. The mutation rate increased 3-fold after removal of the GATC site proximal to the mutation. In the absence of a GATC site, mutL^- and mutS^- strains exhibited a 2- to 3-fold increased mutation rate as compared to isogenic mutH^- and mut ⁺ strains. This indicates that 50%–70% of replication errors can be corrected in a mutLS-dependent way in the absence of any GATC site to target mismatch correction to newly synthesized DNA strands. Other strand targeting signals, possibly single strand discontinuities, might be used in mutLS-dependent repair     

Evaluation of statistical precision and design of efficient sampling for the population estimation based on frequency of occurrence

The binomial sampling to estimate population density of an organism based simply upon the frequency of its occurrence among sampled quadrats is a labour-saving technique which is potentially useful for small animals like insects and has actually been applied occasionally to studies of their populations. The present study provides a theoretical basis for this convenient technique, which makes it statistically reliable and tolerable for consistent use in intensive as well as preliminary population censuses. Firs, the magnitude of sampling error in relation to sample size is formulated mathematically for the estimate to be obtained by this indirect method of census, using either of the two popular models relating frequency of occurrence (p) to mean density (m), i.e. the negative binomial model, p=1−(1+m/k)^−k, and the empirical model, p=1−exp(−am^b). Then, the equations to calculate sample size and census cost that are necessary to attain a given desired level of precision in the estimation are derived for both models. A notable feature of the relationship of necessary sample size (or census cost) to mean density in the frequency method, in constrast to that in the ordinary census, is that it shows a concave curve which tends to rise sharply not only towards lower but also towards higher levels of density. These theoretical results make it also possible to design sequential estimation procedures based on this convenient census technique, which may enable us with the least necessary cost to get a series of population estimates with the desired precision level. Examples are presented to explain how to apply these programs to acutal censuses in the field.     

Continuous monitoring of lactate during exercise in humans using subcutaneous and transcutaneous microdialysis

We have evaluated the possibility of monitoring the plasma lactate concentration in human volunteers during cycle ergometer exercise using subcutaneous and transcutaneous microdialysis. In transcutaneous microdialysis, the relative increase in dialysate lactate concentration exceeded that of plasma lactate concentration by a factor of 6 during exercise due to exercise-induced lactate secretion in sweat. During exercise the subcutaneous microdialysis dialysate lactate concentration underestimated the plasma lactate concentration possibly due to diffusion limitation or adipose tissue lactate production. While it was demonstrated that microdialysis can be used for on-line lactate monitoring, neither subcutaneous nor transcutaneous dialysate lactate concentration were linearly related to the plasma lactate concentration during exercise, and it was found therefore that it was not possible to monitor directly plasma lactate concentration during exercise.     

The posterior probability distribution of alignments and its application to parameter estimation of evolutionary trees and to optimization of multiple alignments

How to sample alignments from their posterior probability distribution given two strings is shown. This is extended to sampling alignments of more than two strings. The result is first applied to the estimation of the edges of a given evolutionary tree over several strings. Second, when used in conjunction with simulated annealing, it gives a stochastic search method for an optimal multiple alignment.Correspondence to: L. Allison     

寄生蜂种群繁殖分布时间特征的研究

运用１０种寄生蜂的２３张生殖力表资料,分析比较了这些种群繁殖分布的特征．结果表明,寄生蜂种群繁殖具有相似的分布特征,种群繁殖集中分布在生殖头ｄ天内,在生殖头ｄ／２天内繁殖分布更为集中．在生殖头ｄ天内种群繁殖对种群增长的贡献几乎均达到１００％,其中大部分贡献是在生殖头ｄ／２天内实现的．这种繁殖分布特征对于寄生蜂种群内禀增长率的测定和掌握种群数量动态的时间特性十分重要．本文结合Ｉｗａｏ零频率法和Ｇｅｒｒａｒｄ阈限密度法,提出一种改进的种群密度估计方法──“综合阈限密度估计法”,并由此探讨了苹果树上山楂叶螨成螨的密度估计及其抽样技术．采用零样频率来估计成螨的平均密度,并得到用概率保证的理论抽样数模型．比较结果表明,零频率法所需的理论抽样数少于直接计数法．综合阈限密度估计法的拟合效果更为显著．