Dynamic modeling of Listeria monocytogenes growth in pasteurized milk

AIMS: The development and validation of a dynamic model for predicting Listeria monocytogenes growth in pasteurized milk stored at both static and dynamic temperature conditions. METHODS AND RESULTS: Growth of inoculated L. monocytogenes in a commercial pasteurized whole milk product was monitored at various isothermal conditions from 1.5 to 16 degrees C. The kinetic parameters of the pathogen were modelled as a function of temperature using a square root type model, which was further validated using data from 92 published growth curves from eight different milk products. Compared to four published models for L. monocytogenes growth, the model developed in this study performed better, with a per cent discrepancy and bias of 49.1 and -1.01%, respectively. The performance of the model in predicting growth at dynamic temperature conditions was evaluated at four different fluctuating temperature scenarios with periodic temperature changes from -2 to 16 degrees C. The prediction of growth at dynamic storage temperature was based on the square root model in conjunction with the differential equations of the Baranyi and Roberts model, which were numerically integrated with respect to time. The per cent relative errors between the observed and the predicted growth of L. monocytogenes were less than 10% for all temperature scenarios tested. CONCLUSIONS: Available models from experiments conducted in laboratory media may result in significant overestimation of L. monocytogenes growth in pasteurized milk because they do not take into account factors such as milk composition (e.g. natural antimicrobial compounds present in milk) and the interactions of the pathogen with the natural microflora. The product-targeted model developed in the present study showed a high performance in predicting growth of L. monocytogenes in pasteurized milk under both static and dynamic temperature conditions. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: Temperature fluctuations often occur during the transportation and storage of pasteurized milk. A high performance, dynamic model for the growth of L. monocytogenes can be a useful tool for effective management and optimization of product safety and can lead to more realistic estimations of pasteurized-milk related safety risks.     

A method for validating stochastic models of population viability: a case study of the mountain pygmy-possum (Burramys parvus)

1.  A method of validating stochastic models of population viability is proposed, based on assessing the mean and variance of the predicted population size.
2.  The method is illustrated with a model of the population dynamics of the mountain pygmy-possum ( Burramys parvus Broom 1895), based on annual census data collected from a single population in the Snowy Mountains of New South Wales, Australia between 1986 and 1997. The model incorporates density-dependence in survivorship and recruitment, and demographic and environmental stochasticity.
3.  The model appeared to make reasonable predictions for the three populations that were used for validation, provided the equilibrium population size was estimated accurately. This may require that differences in habitat quality between populations be taken into account.
4.  Following validation, the model was given new parameters using the additional data from the three populations, and the risk of population decline within the next 100 years was assessed. Although populations as small as 15 females are predicted to be relatively safe from extinction caused by stochastic processes, B. parvus appears vulnerable to loss of habitat and reductions in the population growth rate.
5.  The approach used in this paper is one of few attempts to validate a model of population viability using field data, and demonstrates that some aspects of stochastic population models can be tested.     

Validation of the European corn borer damage model on maize using X rays

In order to explain and predict yield losses caused by European corn borer larvae, Ostrinia nubilalis Hbn. (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), a mechanistic model was proposed to describe cavity appearance, their lengthwise extension, and their within-plant distribution. It integrates main dynamical processes of larvae: mortality, development and within-plant distribution. After its estimation and test under field conditions in 1988 and 1989, its validation, based upon X-ray photographs, is presented. This method allows cavity appearance and lengthwise extension to be followed without damaging the plants. This study confirms the relevance of the damage model and the rate of cavity lengthwise extension estimated with it.     

SNPs in the porcine <Emphasis Type="Italic">PPARGC1a</Emphasis> gene: Interbreed differences and their phenotypic effects

Due to its function, the peroxisome proliferative activated receptor-γ, coactivator-1α (PPARGC1A) gene is a candidate in the search for genes that may affect production traits in the pig. The purpose of this study was to screen for new SNPs in exon 8 of the porcine PPARGC1A gene and to test their possible association with production traits. Altogether 736 pigs representing five breeds Polish Landrace, n=242; Polish Large White, n=192; Hampshire, n=27; Duroc, 21; Pietrain, n=12) and synthetic line 990 (n=242) were scanned via SSCP assay. Four SNPs were found; two new ones: C/G (His338Gln) and G/A Thr359Thr), and two previously reported ones: C/A (Arg369Arg) and T/A Cys430Ser). The missense T/A and C/G SNPs demonstrated pronounced interbreed variability in terms of allele frequencies, including the exclusive presence of the C/G substitution in the Hampshire breed. The tested SNPs occurred in five putative haplotypes, and their frequency also differed substantially between breeds. The association of the SNPs with production traits was tested for G/A (Thr359Thr), C/A (Arg369Arg) and T/A (Cys430Ser) substitutions in Polish Large White, Polish Landrace and line 990. The analysis revealed only breed-specific associations. The T/A (Cys430Ser) SNP was related to the feed conversion ratio in the Polish Large White (P=0.02), and the silent G/A and C/A substitutions were respectively associated with abdominal fat in line 990 and backfat thickness in Polish Landrace (P=0.04). The combined effects of the substitutions were estimated as haplotype effects. Three significant contrasts between haplotypes were calculated, but the observed associations were again only breed-specific.     

Conversion of AFLP markers to sequence-specific markers for closely related lines in rice by use of the rice genome sequence

DNA polymorphism between two major japonica rice cultivars, Nipponbare and Koshihikari, was identified by AFLP. Eighty-four polymorphic AFLP markers were obtained by analysis with 360 combinations of primer pairs. Nucleotide sequences of 73 markers, 29 from Nipponbare and 44 from Koshihikari, were determined, and 46 AFLP markers could be assigned to rice chromosomes based on sequence homology to the rice genome sequence. Specific primers were designed for amplification of the regions covering the AFLP markers and the flanking sequences. Out of the 46 primer pairs, 44 amplified single DNA fragments, six of which showed different sizes between Nipponbare and Koshihikari, yielding codominant SCAR markers. Eight primer pairs amplified only Nipponbare sequences, providing dominant SCAR markers. DNA fragments amplified by 13 primer pairs showed polymorphism by CAPS, and polymorphism of those amplified by 13 other primer pairs were detected by PCR-RF-SSCP (PRS). Nucleotide sequences of the other four DNA fragments were determined in Koshihikari, but no difference was found between Koshihikari and Nipponbare. In total, 40 sequence-specific markers for the combination of Nipponbare and Koshihikari were produced. All the SNPs identified by AFLP were detectable by CAPS and PRS. The same method was applicable to a combination of Kokoromachi and Tohoku 168, and 23 polymorphic markers were identified using these two rice cultivars. The procedure of conversion of AFLP-markers to the sequence-specific markers used in this study enables efficient sequence-specific marker production for closely related cultivars.