层次分析法在上海市农田有害生物治理中的应用

以上海市农业示范区(松江区)农药用量减少优化为例,在对其稻田农药用量现状进行调查分析的基础上,运用层次分析法的基本原理和数学模型进行了农药用量对策研究,建立了综合效益和综合代价的层次分析结构模型,将综合效益分为经济、社会、生态效益3个元素,综合代价分为经济、社会、生态代价3个元素。建立了判断矩阵,并作一致性检验,求出相应的权重;提出代价效益比RCP概念(综合代价与综合效益的比),对稻田农药用量对策进行排序,并依此作为衡量稻田农药用量的参考因子。根据分析结果,认为采用杀虫灯和施用化学农药5次(有效成分为2.23kg.hm-2)”相结合,是上海市水直播稻田有害生物的最佳防治策略。     

Nutritional effects of supplementary diets on brood development,biological activities and honey production of Apis mellifera L

The present research work was conducted to assess the impact of nutrient-enriched diet on the physiological activities and subsequently honey yield. Eighteen colonies of Apis mellifera L. were selected from Dera Ismail Khan region, KPK, Pakistan, during the winter and summer seasons, 2019–2020. Five pollen supplement diets were prepared and provided to screen out the palatable one to be fed as pollen alternative nutrition to bee bread. Results of diet consumption regarding mean data for consumption rate displayed that soybean flour enriched artificial diet was maximally consumed (74.34 g) by honey bees per week. Minimum consumption was observed for grinded groundnut enriched diet (64.62 g) which was relatively lesser than the other tested artificial diets. Results of area of worker brood disclosed that soybean flour fortified diet (1489.27 cm²/colony) statistically noteworthy than the other artificial diets whereas control (463.51 cm²/colony) was least effective. Highest bee strength (10.00 bee frames/colony) was noted in the bee colonies fed with soybean flour fortified diet, date paste (8.0 bee frames/colony) was the next effective one, among the tested pollen replacement diets whereas relatively least (5 bee frames/colony) was noticed in case of grinded groundnut. Highest body weight (12.41 g) of neonate bees was noted in case of soybean enriched diet while lowermost (5.31 g) was noted in control bees. Results of wax cell built up and foraging efficiency were also superior in artificial diets than respective control bees. Hence, artificial diets especially soybean-enriched pollen alternative diet can boost up the physiology of honey bee leading to increased honey yield and profit.     

Bio-economic modelling of sheep meat production systems with varying flock litter size using field data

Sheep meat producers derive the majority of income from sales of weaned lambs, determined by flock conception rates, litter size, and lamb survival. Field data from commercial flocks can inform sensitivity analyses of the effect of litter size on flock productivity, feed demand, and gross margin. This study adapted an established bio-economic model of a flock of breeding ewes informed by statistical relationships (from linear models) between flock litter size (lambs born per ewe lambing) and production factors (such as flock barren rate, litter birth type and lamb birth weight) identified using 156 145 animal records from the Irish national sheep breeding database. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken to investigate the effects of flock litter size on flock production, feed demand, and gross margin. Results showed that as flock litter size increased, the proportion of lambs born as multiples increased, with 14 % of lambs born as singles when flock litter size was 2.2 lambs born per ewe lambing. Flock gross margin increased from €2 205 to €7 730 as litter size increased from 1.0 to 2.0 lambs born per ewe lambing. As litter size increased from 1.0 to 2.2 lambs born per ewe lambing, flock gross margin increased linearly by, on average, €52 per 0.01 increase in litter size. At a litter size of > 2.2 lambs born per ewe lambing, flock gross margin increased on average €12 per 0.01 increase in litter size. At a litter size of 2.2 lambs born per ewe lambing, flock efficiency (at 65.0 kg of lamb weaned per ewe presented for breeding), weaning rate (at 1.5 lambs weaned per ewe presented for breeding; not including excess lambs from large litters sold within a week after birth and thus not weaned on-farm), and gross margin (at €8 500) began to plateau. The results indicate lower marginal returns in gross margin at very high flock litter size, due to the lower value of additional lambs born as triplets and quadruplets compared with single- and twin-born lambs. However, the diminishing economic returns occurred at higher flock litter size than are currently biologically achieved in most flocks. Quantification from this analysis demonstrates how the value of increasing the number of lambs born changes at very high flock litter size, which can inform the priorities and performance benchmarking for international sheep meat production industries.     

Selection indices for non-linear profit functions

Summary Conventional selection index theory assumes that the total merit or profitability of animals is a linear function of measurable traits. However, in many cases merit may be a non-linear function of these traits. A linear selection index can still be used in this situation but the optimum index depends on the selection intensity to be used and on the number of generation over which the selection response is to be maximized. Nonlinear selection indices have been suggested but these result in a lower selection response than the best linear index. Linear selection indices suggested in the past are shown to correspond to the optimum linear index for either a very small selection response or, in the case of restricted indices, a very large selection response. The economic value of a trait may depend on management decisions taken by the farmer. In this situation the economic values should be calculated assuming that the management decisions taken maximize profit given the present genetic value of the animals.     

综合杂种优势的最优线性无偏预测

文献[1]提出综合杂种优势概念及经纬杂交试验设计中综合杂种优势的BLUE和置信区间;但把各配合力效应都视为固定效应,所得结论只能推断试验本身。为从同一经纬杂交试验获得更多信息,本文把各配合力效应视为随机效应,据混合线性模型理论,给出了经纬杂交设计中综合杂种优势的BLUP,可预测某品系与任一品系杂交的效果。本文还讨论了综合杂种优势的经济生物学基础,提出了确定目标性状及其相对经济价值的原理和方法,为实践中正确 使用综合杂种优势的理论和方法奠定基础。