Priors for the Bayesian star paradox

We show that the Bayesian star paradox, first proved mathematically by Steel and Matsen for a specific class of prior distributions, occurs in a wider context including less regular, possibly discontinuous, prior distributions.     

The effect of a large-scale irrigation scheme on the fish community structure and integrity of a subtropical river system in South Africa

Large scale irrigation schemes are vitally important for food security in developing countries. This is especially relevant in subtropical countries where there is pressure on their water resources. However, the potential impacts on the fish communities of the rivers associated with these irrigation systems are extensive and potentially devastating. Therefore, the aim of the study was to evaluate the impact of the Vaalharts Irrigation Scheme (VHIS) on the fish community of two rivers (Harts and Vaal rivers) in the subtropical region of South Africa. The fish community was assessed during a three year period from 2007 to 2009 together with environmental and habitat quality parameters. A multivariate approach together with a local biotic index was used to determine the present ecological state and the environmental drivers responsible for the fish community structure. The results indicated that the fish community was in a largely natural state at the start of the VHIS and increasingly became modified due to various environmental parameters being affected by the irrigation scheme. Annual variation in the fish community structures was high while nitrate, zinc and sulphates corresponded with changes in the fish community. The outcome of the study highlighted that a lack of long term monitoring of fish community structures together with environmental and habitat parameters are a major challenge in many developing countries that can potentially affect management of irrigation schemes and the fish communities associated with the aquatic ecosystems.     

Digital dermatoglyphics in the Basque population: univariate and multivariate comparison with other Spanish populations

We have analyzed dermatoglyphic finger patterns in a Spanish Basque population (841 males and 911 females). Bimanual and sexual comparisons have been carried out by means of contingency analysis. The results in the Basque population are compared with those of other Spanish populations, based on univariate (chi 2 contingency test and Student's t-test) and multivariate (principal components analyses) statistical methods. Bilateral distribution asymmetry and sexual dimorphism were observed in the Basque sample. The results of the chi 2 test for pattern types in males and females show statistically significant differences between the Basques and other Spanish populations, with the exception of the males from El Bierzo. Comparing populations with regard to the Pattern Intensity Index, the differences observed are much lower; therefore, this confirms what other authors have suggested regarding the limited usefulness of indexes in populational comparisons. In the Caucasian variation range of pattern types, Basques are located in the high part with regard to arches, in the low part with regard to whorls and radial loops, and in an intermediate part in relation to ulnar loops and overall pattern intensity. Results of the multivariate comparisons show which populations are more or less distant from the Basque population and which variables are significant in contributing to these population relationships.     

Identification of soil quality indicators for assessing the effect of different tillage practices through a soil quality index in a semi-arid environment

Tillage is known to potentially affect soil quality in various ways. In this study, a soil quality index (SQI) was developed by quantifying several soil attributes either sensitive or insensitive to physical disturbance, using factor analysis as a dimension reduction technique, in order to discriminate different tillage systems. Soil properties including physical (MWD), chemical (pH, organic C, total N, available P and POM contents) and microbial (MBC, MBN, PCM, PNM and three enzymes) parameters were measured to establish a minimum data set (MDS) for the assessment of overall SQI. The soil attributes were determined on samples (0–20 cm depth) collected under moldboard (MP) and disk (DP) plows as conventional tillage (CT), and rotary (RP) and chisel (CP) plows as reduced tillage (RT) systems with a similar plant C input rate and cover crop over a period of six years (2005–2011) in a semi-arid calcareous soil (Calcixerepts) from Central Iran. Results indicated a clear difference in soil quality among the tillage systems with a significant increase of SQI under RT over time, particularly under CP practices. Although RT improved most soil microbial attributes, not all attributes contributed to SQI because of their close interrelationship. The final SQI consisted only of geometric mean of microbial activity (GMA, the square root of the product of PCM and PNM) and geometric mean of enzyme activity (GME, the cube root of the product of enzyme activities). Soil GME and GMA were found to be as key indicators contributing 55% and 36% to SQI, respectively. Therefore, the GME and GMA were the most important indicators effectively discriminating tillage systems, and could be used to monitor the enhancement of soil quality under RT in this semiarid environment. The influence of tillage year on SQI was greater than that of tillage practices. In conclusion, RT systems were characterized by a higher value of SQI, suggesting a good recovery of soil capacity and functions after abandoning CT in the studied area. Smallholder farmers should therefore be aware of the potential for high soil quality in future as a result of continuing RT systems, especially with surface tillage using CP practices.     

Correction of a bootstrap approach to testing for evolution along lines of least resistance

Testing for an association between the leading vectors of multivariate trait (co)variation within populations (the ‘line of least resistance’) and among populations is an important tool for exploring variational bias in evolution. In a recent study of stickleback fish populations, a bootstrap‐based test was introduced that takes into account estimation error in both vectors and hence improves the previously available bootstrap method. Because this test was implemented incorrectly, however, I here describe the correct test protocol and provide a reanalysis of the original data set. The application of this new test protocol should improve future investigations of evolution along lines of least resistance and other vector comparisons.     

The genetic structure of a tribal population,the Yanomama Indians. XII. Biodemographic studies

The Yanomama Indians of Southern Vanezuela and Northern Brazil are one of the largest, relatively unacculturated tribes of the tropical rain forest. Over a period of eight years data have been collected from a considerable portion of their territory on estimated age, sex ratio, fertility rates (as determined by physical examination and urine tests), and infant death rates. Although it has been impossible to collect direct data on infanticide, this subject can be approached indirectly through distortions of the sex ratio and anecdotal information. Some historical data are also available as a basis for estimating tribal expansion in the past 100 years. With this material it has been possible to construct Life Tables for the Yanomama, and to explore the results of various perturbations of the input parameters. Data are also presented on patterns of mating and reproduction: number of spouses, mean and variance in number of surviving children, frequency of “extra-marital conceptions” based on the results of extensive blood group typings, and consanguinity rates as determined by observation and computer simulation. Although we do not present the Yanomama as typical, these data are seen as providing a basis for more realistic population models than have existed in the past. In addition, the data provide a basis for relatively precise estimates of such demographic measures as Fisher's Reproductive Value, Crow's Index of Total Selection, and Weiss' Index of Growth Regulation.     

Introducing the Multivariate Dale Model in Population‐Based Genetic Association Studies

Until recently, the most common parametric approaches to study the combined effects of several genetic polymorphisms located within a gene or in a small genomic region are, at the genotype level, logistic regressions and at the haplotype level, haplotype analyses. An alternative modeling approach, based on the case/control principle, is to regard exposures (e.g., genetic data such as derived from Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms – SNPs) as random and disease status as fixed and to use a marginal multivariate model that accounts for inter‐relationships between exposures. One such model is the multivariate Dale model. This model is based on multiple logistic regressions. That is why the model, applied in a case/control setting, leads to straightforward interpretations that are similar to those drawn in a classical logistic modeling framework. (© 2004 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Numerical responses by populations of red fox and mountain hare during an outbreak of sarcoptic mange

Summary During a severe outbreak of sarcoptic mange (Sarcoptes scabiei vulpes) starting among red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) in Sweden in the 1970s, we studied: 1) the establishment and spread of the disease in northernmost Sweden (by inquiries), and 2) the 1970–84 bag records for foxes and mountain hares (Lepus timidus) (an alternative prey to the fox's main prey, voles). Since the first case of sarcoptic mange in 1975 the disease spread rapidly, with >50% of the hunting organizations having reported the disease in 1981 and >75% in 1983. Also the disease became more abundant within the areas affected. In areas with a low mange infection rate (index) the number of foxes killed in the 1980s did not deviate markedly from the average level in the 1970s. However, there was a slight tendency towards a decline in areas with a medium index and numbers declined markedly where the index was high. Hare harvests initially were low (after a tularemia epidemic) in the 1970s. In that decade harvests increased dramatically and stabilized, increased gradually or changed little, respectively, where mange infection rates were low, medium or high in the early 1980s. In areas with a low mange index hare harvests remained cyclical and at the same level in the 1980s as in most of the 1970s. However, in areas with a medium index harvests increased and seemed to begin to lose their cyclicity, and where the index was high the low and relatively stable hare harvests increased annually. A predator-prey hypothesis, assuming predators to synchronize alternative prey declines to those of the cyclic main prey, predicts that a predator reduction would cause a gradual disappearance of the cyclicity and increasing numbers among alternative prey. Our hare data are partially consistent with this prediction.     

Interrelatedness of 5S RNA sequences investigated by correspondence analysis

Summary Correspondence analysis (a form of multivariate statistics) applied to 74 5S ribosomal RNA sequences indicates that the sequences are interrelated in a systematic, nonrandom fashion. Aligned sequences are represented as vectors in a 5N-dimensional space, where N is the number of base positions in the 5S RNA molecule. Mutually orthogonal directions (called factor axes) along which intersequence variance is greatest are defined in this hyperspace. Projection of the sequences onto planes defined by these factorial directions reveals clustering of species that is suggestive of phylogenetic relationships. For each factorial direction, correspondence analysis points to regions of importance, i.e., those base positions at which the systematic changes occur that define that particular direction. In effect, the technique provides a rapid determination of group-specific signatures. In several instances, similarities between sequences are indicated that have only recently been inferred from visual base-to-base comparisons. These results suggest that correspondence analysis may provide a valuable starting point from which to uncover the patterns of change underlying the evolution of a macromolecule, such as 5S RNA.     

Genetic diversity in Cucumis sativus L. assessed by variation at 18 allozyme coding loci

Summary The genetic diversity of the U.S. Cucumis sativus L. germplasm collection [757 plant introductions (PI) representing 45 countries] was assessed using 40 enzymes which represented 74 biochemical loci. Polymorphisms were observed at 18 loci (G2dh-1, Gpi-1, Gpi-2, Gr-1, Gr-2, Idh, Mdh-1, Mdh-2, Mdh-3, Mpi-2, Pepla-2, Peppap-2, Per-4, Pgd-1, Pgd-2, Pgm-1, Pgm-3, and Skdh). Two PIs (285606 and 215589) contained alleles [G2dh-1(1) and Per-4(2), respectively] which did not occur in any other PI. Other alleles which occurred in low frequencies (in < 1% of the PIs) included Gpi-1(3), Gpi-2(3), Gr-1(3), Gr-2(1), Idh(1), Mdh-1(2), Mdh-2(1), Peppap-2(1), and Pgd-1(1). Individual loci containing more than one allele in greater than 20% of the PIs included Mpi-2, Pepla-2, Pgd-2, and Pgm-1. Multivariate analyses aided in the reduction of data (principle components), depicted relationships among PIs (cluster), and identified the most discriminating enzyme loci (Pgm-1, Pepla-2, Gr-1, Pgd-2, Mpi-2, and Skdh) (classification and regression tree).Research partially supported by Asgrow, DeRuiter, Nickerson-Zwaan, Nunhems, and Sun Seed Companies; and the Graduate School, University of Wisconsin, Madison