Priority threat management of invasive animals to protect biodiversity under climate change

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity, and its impacts can act synergistically to heighten the severity of other threats. Most research on projecting species range shifts under climate change has not been translated to informing priority management strategies on the ground. We develop a prioritization framework to assess strategies for managing threats to biodiversity under climate change and apply it to the management of invasive animal species across one‐sixth of the Australian continent, the Lake Eyre Basin. We collected information from key stakeholders and experts on the impacts of invasive animals on 148 of the region's most threatened species and 11 potential strategies. Assisted by models of current distributions of threatened species and their projected distributions, experts estimated the cost, feasibility, and potential benefits of each strategy for improving the persistence of threatened species with and without climate change. We discover that the relative cost‐effectiveness of invasive animal control strategies is robust to climate change, with the management of feral pigs being the highest priority for conserving threatened species overall. Complementary sets of strategies to protect as many threatened species as possible under limited budgets change when climate change is considered, with additional strategies required to avoid impending extinctions from the region. Overall, we find that the ranking of strategies by cost‐effectiveness was relatively unaffected by including climate change into decision‐making, even though the benefits of the strategies were lower. Future climate conditions and impacts on range shifts become most important to consider when designing comprehensive management plans for the control of invasive animals under limited budgets to maximize the number of threatened species that can be protected.     

Predicting the impact of increasing carbon dioxide concentration and temperature on seed germination and seedling establishment of African grasses in Brazilian Cerrado

Global climate changes and biological invasions are environmental disturbances that may interact synergistically, causing loss of biodiversity. As the early stages of development are the most sensitive and easily affected by these constraints, this study investigated the effects of increased carbon dioxide (CO₂) and temperature, as forecasted for 2100, on seed germination and early development of three species of invasive African grasses that have gradually replaced landscapes of the Brazilian Cerrado biome. It was observed that these parameters affected percentage and rate of germination in Urochloa brizantha, rate of germination and mean germination time in Urochloa decumbens and accelerated autotrophy acquisition in U. brizantha, U. decumbens and Megathyrsus maximus. Regarding root elongation, all species showed changes in total length, absolute and relative growth rate, but at different stages of development or time intervals, with increased temperature being more significant than increased CO₂, probably due to seed reserves still being the main carbon sources at this stage. Taken together, the results indicate that the effects of CO₂ and increased temperature are species specific and highlight the greatest potential of U. brizantha to germinate, and of U. decumbens for seedling establishment under these environmental changes.     

气候变化影响下海岸带脆弱性评估研究进展

近百年来,全球气候系统正经历着以全球变暖为主要特征的显著变化。研究海岸带系统对气候变化的响应机制,评估气候变化对海岸带社会、经济和生态的潜在影响,提出切实可行的应对策略,是保障海岸带系统安全的重要前提。回顾了IPCC的四次评估报告,分析了全球气候变化对海岸带的影响。总结了海岸带脆弱性评估框架以及脆弱性评价指标体系,综述了国内外气候变化影响下海岸带脆弱性评估研究的进展。在综述国内外该领域研究进展的基础上,展望了气候变化影响下海岸带脆弱性评估研究。全球气候变化及其对海岸带的影响还有大量的科学技术问题需要进一步探讨,同时也需要对各种适应气候变化措施的可行性和有效性进行研究和验证。     

Vulnerability of coastal ecosystems to changes in harmful algal bloom distribution in response to climate change: projections based on model analysis

Harmful algal blooms (HABs), those proliferations of algae that can cause fish kills, contaminate seafood with toxins, form unsightly scums, or detrimentally alter ecosystem function have been increasing in frequency, magnitude, and duration worldwide. Here, using a global modeling approach, we show, for three regions of the globe, the potential effects of nutrient loading and climate change for two HAB genera, pelagic Prorocentrum and Karenia, each with differing physiological characteristics for growth. The projections (end of century, 2090–2100) are based on climate change resulting from the A1B scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Climate Model (IPCC, IPSL‐CM4), applied in a coupled oceanographic‐biogeochemical model, combined with a suite of assumed physiological ‘rules’ for genera‐specific bloom development. Based on these models, an expansion in area and/or number of months annually conducive to development of these HABs along the NW European Shelf‐Baltic Sea system and NE Asia was projected for both HAB genera, but no expansion (Prorocentrum spp.), or actual contraction in area and months conducive for blooms (Karenia spp.), was projected in the SE Asian domain. The implications of these projections, especially for Northern Europe, are shifts in vulnerability of coastal systems to HAB events, increased regional HAB impacts to aquaculture, increased risks to human health and ecosystems, and economic consequences of these events due to losses to fisheries and ecosystem services.     

Agricultural management impacts on soil organic carbon storage under moist and dry climatic conditions of temperate and tropical regions

We conducted a meta-analysis to quantify the impact of changing agricultural land use and management on soil organic carbon (SOC) storage under moist and dry climatic conditions of temperate and tropical regions. We derived estimates of management impacts for a carbon accounting approach developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, addressing the impact of long-term cultivation, setting-aside land from crop production, changing tillage management, and modifying C input to the soil by varying cropping practices. We found 126 articles that met our criteria and analyzed the data in linear mixed-effect models. In general, management impacts were sensitive to climate in the following order from largest to smallest changes in SOC: tropical moist>tropical dry>temperate moist>temperate dry. For example, long-term cultivation caused the greatest loss of SOC in tropical moist climates, with cultivated soils having 0.58 ± 0.12, or 58% of the amount found under native vegetation, followed by tropical dry climates with 0.69 ± 0.13, temperate moist with 0.71 ± 0.04, and temperate dry with 0.82 ± 0.04. Similarly, converting from conventional tillage to no-till increased SOC storage over 20 years by a factor of 1.23 ± 0.05 in tropical moist climates, which is a 23% increase in SOC, while the corresponding change in tropical dry climates was 1.17 ± 0.05, temperate moist was 1.16 ± 0.02, and temperate dry was 1.10 ± 0.03. These results demonstrate that agricultural management impacts on SOC storage will vary depending on climatic conditions that influence the plant and soil processes driving soil organic matter dynamics.     

Nitrous oxide emissions in the Shanghai river network: implications for the effects of urban sewage and IPCC methodology

Global nitrogen (N) enrichment has resulted in increased nitrous oxide (N₂O) emission that greatly contributes to climate change and stratospheric ozone destruction, but little is known about the N₂O emissions from urban river networks receiving anthropogenic N inputs. We examined N₂O saturation and emission in the Shanghai city river network, covering 6300 km², over 27 months. The overall mean saturation and emission from 87 locations was 770% and 1.91 mg N₂O‐N m^?2 d^?1, respectively. Nitrous oxide (N₂O) saturation did not exhibit a clear seasonality, but the temporal pattern was co‐regulated by both water temperature and N loadings. Rivers draining through urban and suburban areas receiving more sewage N inputs had higher N₂O saturation and emission than those in rural areas. Regression analysis indicated that water ammonium (NH₄⁺) and dissolved oxygen (DO) level had great control on N₂O production and were better predictors of N₂O emission in urban watershed. About 0.29 Gg N₂O‐N yr^?1 N₂O was emitted from the Shanghai river network annually, which was about 131% of IPCC's prediction using default emission values. Given the rapid progress of global urbanization, more study efforts, particularly on nitrification and its N₂O yielding, are needed to better quantify the role of urban rivers in global riverine N₂O emission.     

The HYDE 3.1 spatially explicit database of human‐induced global land‐use change over the past 12,000 years

Aim This paper presents a tool for long‐term global change studies; it is an update of the History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE) with estimates of some of the underlying demographic and agricultural driving factors. Methods Historical population, cropland and pasture statistics are combined with satellite information and specific allocation algorithms (which change over time) to create spatially explicit maps, which are fully consistent on a 5′ longitude/latitude grid resolution, and cover the period 10,000 bc to ad 2000. Results Cropland occupied roughly less than 1% of the global ice‐free land area for a long time until ad 1000, similar to the area used for pasture. In the centuries that followed, the share of global cropland increased to 2% in ad 1700 (c. 3 million km²) and 11% in ad 2000 (15 million km²), while the share of pasture area grew from 2% in ad 1700 to 24% in ad 2000 (34 million km²) These profound land‐use changes have had, and will continue to have, quite considerable consequences for global biogeochemical cycles, and subsequently global climate change. Main conclusions Some researchers suggest that humans have shifted from living in the Holocene (emergence of agriculture) into the Anthropocene (humans capable of changing the Earth's atmosphere) since the start of the Industrial Revolution. But in the light of the sheer size and magnitude of some historical land‐use changes (e.g. as result of the depopulation of Europe due to the Black Death in the 14th century and the aftermath of the colonization of the Americas in the 16th century) we believe that this point might have occurred earlier in time. While there are still many uncertainties and gaps in our knowledge about the importance of land use (change) in the global biogeochemical cycle, we hope that this database can help global (climate) change modellers to close parts of this gap.     

Thermal thresholds as predictors of seed dormancy release and germination timing: altitude-related risks from climate warming for the wild grapevine Vitis vinifera subsp. sylvestris

Background and Aims

The importance of thermal thresholds for predicting seed dormancy release and germination timing under the present climate conditions and simulated climate change scenarios was investigated. In particular, Vitis vinifera subsp. sylvestris was investigated in four Sardinian populations over the full altitudinal range of the species (from approx. 100 to 800 m a.s.l).

Methods

Dried and fresh seeds from each population were incubated in the light at a range of temperatures (10–25 and 25/10 °C), without any pre-treatment and after a warm (3 months at 25 °C) or a cold (3 months at 5 °C) stratification. A thermal time approach was then applied to the germination results for dried seeds and the seed responses were modelled according to the present climate conditions and two simulated scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): B1 (+1·8 °C) and A2 (+3·4 °C).

Key Results

Cold stratification released physiological dormancy, while very few seeds germinated without treatments or after warm stratification. Fresh, cold-stratified seeds germinated significantly better (>80 %) at temperatures ≥20 °C than at lower temperatures. A base temperature for germination (T_b) of 9·0–11·3 °C and a thermal time requirement for 50 % of germination (θ₅₀) ranging from 33·6 °Cd to 68·6 °Cd were identified for non-dormant cold-stratified seeds, depending on the populations. This complex combination of thermal requirements for dormancy release and germination allowed prediction of field emergence from March to May under the present climatic conditions for the investigated populations.

Conclusions

The thermal thresholds for seed germination identified in this study (T_b and θ₅₀) explained the differences in seed germination detected among populations. Under the two simulated IPCC scenarios, an altitude-related risk from climate warming is identified, with lowland populations being more threatened due to a compromised seed dormancy release and a narrowed seed germination window.     

Scenarios of freshwater fish extinctions from climate change and water withdrawal

Reductions in river discharge (water availability) like those from climate change or increased water withdrawal, reduce freshwater biodiversity. We combined two scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change with a global hydrological model to build global scenarios of future losses in river discharge from climate change and increased water withdrawal. Applying these results to known relationships between fish species and discharge, we build scenarios of losses (at equilibrium) of riverine fish richness. In rivers with reduced discharge, up to 75% (quartile range 4–22%) of local fish biodiversity would be headed toward extinction by 2070 because of combined changes in climate and water consumption. Fish loss in the scenarios fell disproportionately on poor countries. Reductions in water consumption could prevent many of the extinctions in these scenarios.     

Changes in annual CO2 fluxes estimated from inventory data in South Korea

Using a slightly modified IPCC method, we examined changes in annual fluxes of CO_2and contributions of energy consumption, limestone use, waste combustion, land-use change, and forest growth to the fluxes in South Korea from 1990 to 1997. Our method required less data and resulted in a larger estimate of CO_2 released by industrial processes, comparing with the originalIPCC guideline. However, net CO_2 emission is not substantially different from the estimates of IPCC and modified methods. Net CO_2 emission is intimately related to GDP as Korean economyhas heavily relied on energy consumption and industrial activities, which are major sources of CO_2.Total efflux of CO_2 was estimated to be 63.6 Tg C/a in 1990 and amounted to 112.9 Tg C/a in 1997. Land-use change contributed to annual budget of CO_2 in a relatively small portion. Carbon dioxide was sequestered by forest biomass at the rate of 6.5 Tg C/a in 1990 and 8.5 Tg C/a in 1997. Al-though CO_2 storage in the forests increased, the sink effect was overwhelmed by extensive energy consumption, suggesting that energy-saving strategies will be more effective in reducing CO_2 emission in Korea than any other practices. It is presumed that plant uptake of CO_2 is underesti-mated as carbon contained in plant detritus and belowground living biomass were not fully consid-ered. Furthermore, the soil organic carbon stored in forest decomposes in various ways in rugged mountains depending on their conditions, such as slope, aspect and elevation, which could havean effect on decomposition rate and carbon stores in soils. Thus, carbon sequestration of forests deserves further attention.