An Extreme Value Analysis of Pollutant Concentrations in Surface Soils Due to Atmospheric Deposition

Risk assessments often rely on deterministic models using long-term averages or “steady-state” values of input variables. Such models do not provide the information needed to estimate acute exposures. This study uses extreme value theory to examine the frequency and magnitude of daily pollutant concentrations in surface soils predicted at six U.S. locations. Concentrations are predicted using a deposition-leaching model and 50 years of historical precipitation data. A stochastic model also is used to generate 1000 years of precipitation data as modeling inputs for each location. The annual maximum concentrations at each site are fitted to a Gumbel type I distribution to estimate occurrence probability. For soluble pollutants, the predicted concentration varied substantially with precipitation, and the maximum daily concentrations exceeded annual averages by 4 to 8 times. Observed and synthetic precipitation data produced similar results at most study locations, though the synthetic data provided a slightly better fit to the Gumbel type I distribution. The precipitation model allows the generation of representative precipitation data that extend limited historical records. The extreme value analysis facilitates the evaluation of maximum pollutant concentrations, return periods, and other statistics that are important in evaluating acute exposures.     

Population dynamics ofGlaux maritima (L.) along a distributional cline

Population fluctuations ofGlaux maritima, along a transect on a Baltle sea shore meadow, were recorded between 1979 and 1983. A bimodal distribution in numbers along the transect reflects the variation in factors regulating numbers: The two maintenance systems of the species, vegetative propagation and sexual reproduction play different roles. Vegetative propagation is fast and responds quickly to variations in the environment. The seeds germinate in strongly fluctuating temperatures which are triggered by disturbances such as flooding, damaging the vegetation.     

Environmental and genetic control of crassulacean acid metabolism in two crassulacean species and an F1 hybrid with differing biomass δ13C values

Abstract The growth, biomass δ¹³C values, and ability to accumulate titratable acidity at night were compared in eight environmental treatments for Cremnophila linguifolia, Sedum greggii, and their F₁ hybrid. In the phytotron, differences in treatment daylength, day/night temperature and water availability were all found to have effects on total plant dry weight, nocturnal accumulation of titratable acidity and biomass δ¹³C value of at least some of the genotypes. However, there were differences between the genotypes both in the magnitude and direction of response of the phenotypic properties to the treatment variables. The phytotron δ¹³C values ranged from -12.9 to -19.2‰ for C. linguifolia, from -22.2 to -33.4‰ for S. greggii, and from -19.2 to -24.9‰ for the hybrid. After with-holding water for 76 h both C. linguifolia and the hybrid had midday Ψ_leaf values of -0.23 MPa; however, S. greggii had a value of -1.05 MPa. In contrast to past observations of other species, the daily watered plants of C. linguifolia had less negative δ¹³C values than did the plants watered only weekly.     

How Can the Eco‐efficiency of a Region be Measured and Monitored?

The concept of eco-efficiency is commonly referred to as a business link to sustainable development. In this article, ecoefficiency is examined at a regional level as an approach to promoting the competitiveness of economic activities in the Finnish Kymenlaakso region and mitigating their harmful impacts on the environment. The aim is to develop appropriate indicators for monitoring changes in the eco-efficiency of the region. A starting point is to produce indicators for the environmental and economic dimensions of regional development and use them for measuring regional eco-efficiency. The environmental impact indicators are based on a life-cycle assessment method, producing different types of environmental impact indicators: pressure indicators (e.g., emissions of CO₂), impact category indicators (e.g., CO₂ equivalents in the case of climate change), and a total impact indicator (aggregating different impact category indicator results into a single value). Environmental impact indicators based on direct material input, total material input, and total material requirement of the Kymenlaakso region are also assessed. The economic indicators used are the gross domestic product, the value added, and the output of the main economic sectors of Kymenlaakso. In the eco-efficiency assessment, the economic and environmental impact indicators are monitored in the same graph. In a few cases eco-efficiency ratios can also be calculated (the economic indicators are divided by the environmental indicators). Output (= value added + intermediate consumption) is used as an economic indicator related to the environmental impact indicators, which also cover the upstream processes of the region's activities. In the article, we also discuss the strengths and weaknesses of using the different environmental impact indicators.     

Assessment of Optimal Selected Prognostic Factors

The identification and assessment of prognostic factors is one of the major tasks in clinical research. The assessment of one single prognostic factor can be done by recently established methods for using optimal cutpoints. Here, we suggest a method to consider an optimal selected prognostic factor from a set of prognostic factors of interest. This can be viewed as a variable selection method and is the underlying decision problem at each node of various tree building algorithms. We propose to use maximally selected statistics where the selection is defined over the set of prognostic factors and over all cutpoints in each prognostic factor. We demonstrate that it is feasible to compute the approximate null distribution. We illustrate the new variable selection test with data of the German Breast Cancer Study Group and of a small study on patients with diffuse large B‐cell lymphoma. Using the null distribution for a p‐value adjusted regression trees algorithm, we adjust for the number of variables analysed at each node as well. (© 2004 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Estimation of Tissue Construction Cost from Heat of Combustion and Organic Nitrogen Content

Abstract. We present a method for estimating the construction costs of plant tissues from measurements of heat of combustion, ash content, and organic nitrogen content. The method predicts glucose equivalents, the amount of glucose required to provide carbon skeletons and reductant to synthesize a quantity of organic product. Glucose equivalents have previously been calculated from the elemental composition of tissue. We define construction cost as the amount of glucose required to provide carbon skeletons, reductant and ATP for synthesizing the organic compounds in a tissue via standard biochemical pathways. The fraction of the total construction cost of a compound or tissue (excluding costs of transporting compounds) that is reflected in its glucose equivalents is the biosynthetic efficiency ( E _B). This quantity varies between 0.84 and 0.95 for tissues with a wide range of compositions. Using the new method, total construction cost can be estimated to ± 6% of the value obtained from biochemical pathway analysis.
Construction costs of leaves of three chaparral species were estimated using the proposed method and compared to previously published values, derived using different methods. Agreement among methods was generally good. Differences were probably due to a combination of inaccuracy in the estimated biosynthetic efficiency and technical difficulties with biochemical analysis, one of the older methods of determining construction cost.     

Optimal foraging: food patch depletion by ruddy ducks

Summary I studied the foraging behavior of ruddy ducks (Oxyura jamaicensis) feeding on patchily distributed prey in a large (5-m long, 2-m wide, and up to 2-m deep) aquarium. The substrate consisted of a 4x4 array of wooden trays (1.0-m long, 0.5-m wide, and 0.1-m deep) which contained 6 cm of sand. Any tray could be removed from the aquarium and loaded with a known number of prey. One bird foraged in the aquarium at a time; thus, by removing a food tray after a trial ended and counting the remaining prey, I calculated the number of prey consumed by the bird. I designed several experiments to determine if ruddy ducks abandoned a food patch in a manner consistent with the predictions of a simple, deterministic, patch depletion model. This model is based on the premise that a predator should maximize its rate of net energy intake while foraging. To accomplish this, a predator should only remain in a food patch as long as its rate of energy intake from that patch exceeds the average rate of intake from the environment. In the majority of comparisons, the number of food items consumed by the ruddy ducks in these experiments was consistent with the predictions of the foraging model. When the birds did not forage as predicted by the model, they stayed in the patch longer and consumed more prey than predicted by the model. An examination of the relation between rate of net energy intake and time spent foraging in the food patch indicated that by staying in a patch longer than predicted, the ruddy ducks experienced only a small deviation from maximum rate of net energy intake. These results provided quantitative support for the prediction that ruddy ducks maximize their rate of net energy intake while foraging.     

Spatial arrangement of tiller replacement in Agropyron desertorum following grazing

Summary The spatial arrangement of tiller replacement was assessed on grazed and ungrazed tussocks of Agropyron desertorum (Fisch. ex Link) Schult. for three annual cycles. Frequency distributions of the number of replacement tillers per single progenitor were also determined. Tiller replacement was usually greater on the perimeter of tussocks than within the core, with or without grazing. Replacement was inversely related to grazing intensity, both on the perimeter and within the core of tussocks. Heights of replacement tillers on the perimeter or within the core seldom differed. Furthermore, grazing seldom affected the number of replacement tillers per progenitor. Greater tillering on the perimeter than within the core indicates that the tussocks were expanding. Apparently, grazing neither enhances tussock expansion and subsequent disintegration, nor does it necessarily lead to patches of tillers (multiple tillering per progenitor) within tussocks of A. desertorum.