On the solution of mathematical models of herd immunity in human helminth infections

The general solution of the mathematical model of herd immunity to human helminth infections recently proposed by Anderson and May [3] is obtained. The numerical solution of a more accurate biological model is indistinguishable from the corresponding exact solution of a more tractable mathematical model. Computer simulations of some particular cases of this model support the notion that both ecological and immunological factors determine the observed convex patterns of age-prevalence and age-intensity curves of human helminth infections.This work was made thanks to the advise and support of Dr. Robert M. May while the author was Postdoctoral Fellow at Princeton University     

Analysis of a disease transmission model in a population with varying size

An S I R S epidemiological model with vital dynamics in a population of varying size is discussed. A complete global analysis is given which uses a new result to establish the nonexistence of periodic solutions. Results are discussed in terms of three explicit threshold parameters which respectively govern the increase of the total population, the existence and stability of an endemic proportion equilibrium and the growth of the infective population. These lead to two distinct concepts of disease eradication which involve the total number of infectives and their proportion in the population.Partially supported by NSF Grant No. DMS-8703631. This work was done while this author was visiting the University of VictoriaResearch supported in part by NSERC A-8965     

A threshold result for an epidemiological model

A threshold parameter R ₀ is identified for an SIRS epidemiological model which has nonlinear incidence and a distributed delay for transfer out of the removed class. For R ₀ < 1, the disease free equilibrium is proved to be the global attractor for all solutions.Research supplied in part by NSERC A-8965     

Some epidemiological models with nonlinear incidence

Epidemiological models with nonlinear incidence rates can have very different dynamic behaviors than those with the usual bilinear incidence rate. The first model considered here includes vital dynamics and a disease process where susceptibles become exposed, then infectious, then removed with temporary immunity and then susceptible again. When the equilibria and stability are investigated, it is found that multiple equilibria exist for some parameter values and periodic solutions can arise by Hopf bifurcation from the larger endemic equilibrium. Many results analogous to those in the first model are obtained for the second model which has a delay in the removed class but no exposed class.Research supported in part by Centers for Disease Control Contract 200-87-0515. Support services provided at University House Research Center at the University of IowaResearch supported in part by NSERC A-8965 and the University of Victoria President's Committee on Faculty Research and Travel     

Multiple cleavage sites of cholecystokinin heptapeptide by "enkephalinase"

Degradation of Boc CCK7 (Boc Tyr1 (SO3H)-Met2-Gly3-Trp4-Met5-Asp6-Phe7-NH2), a fully active analog of CCK8, by purified rabbit kidney neutral metalloendopeptidase (enkephalinase) was studied as a basis for the rational design of potent peptidases-resistant analogs of cholecystokinin. Characterization of the metabolites was performed by HPLC using several elution procedures. Three cleavage sites were evidenced: one major at the Asp6-Phe7 bond and two minor at Gly3-Trp4 and Trp4-Met5 bonds. All cleavages were fully inhibited by thiorphan, a potent inhibitor of enkephalinase. The relative importance of the different cleavages was established using several cholecystokinin analogs. At 25 degrees C the half-disappearance time was 18 min for Boc CCK7, Boc[diNle2,5]CCK7 and 70 min for Boc[diNle2,5 D.Asp6]CCK7. Although, half-life of Boc CCK7 and Boc[diNle2,5]CCK7 were identical, the replacement of Met by Nle, a more hydrophobic aminoacid, greatly favoured the cleavage at the Trp4-Nle5 bond which became the major breakdown. This feature was exemplified by the substitution of L.Asp by D.Asp, preventing the Trp4-Nle5 cleavage, which gave rise to the most enkephalinase-resistant analog in this series.     

中药凌霄花的药理学考察

实验结果表明,凌霄花对离体猪冠状动脉条具有抑制收缩的作用;对大鼠血栓形成有抑制作用;能加快红细胞电泳,增加红细胞电泳率,使血液红细胞处于分散状态;对离体孕子宫能显著增强收缩活性,增加收缩频率及增强收缩强度。以上结果可初步说明,凌霄花行血去瘀的作用及其“孕妇慎用”的合理性。凌霄花的３种混淆品（白泡桐花,毛泡桐花,兰考泡桐花）的药理作用与凌霄花不同,故不能作凌霄花使用。     

On some formulas in a partnership model from the perspective of a semi-Markov process

Many deterministic models of sexually transmitted diseases, as well as population models in general, contain elements of stochastic or statistical reasoning. An example of such a model is that of Dietz and Hadeler (1988) concerning sexually transmitted diseases in which there is partnership formation and dissolution. Among the interesting formulas in this paper, which enter into the analysis of the model, are those for the expected number of partners a male or female has during a lifetime. To a probabilist such formulas suggest the possibility that some stochastic process may be constructed so as to yield these formulas as well as others that may be of interest. The principal purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that such a stochastic process does indeed exist in the form of a three state semi-Markov process in continuous time with stationary laws of evolution and with a one-step density matrix determined by four parameters which were interpreted as constant latent risk functions in the classical theory of competing risks. This construction of a semi-Markov process not only provides a framework for the systematic derivation of the formulas of Dietz and Hadeler but also suggests pathways,for extensions to the age-dependent case.This research was partially supported by NATO Grant D.890350     

Modelling the effect of treatment and behavioral change in HIV transmission dynamics

In this paper we analyze a model for the HIV-infection transmission in a male homosexual population. In the model we consider two types of infected individuals. Those that are infected but do not know their serological status and/or are not under any sort of clinical /therapeutical treatment, and those who are. The two groups of infectives differ in their incubation time, contact rate with susceptible individuals, and probability of disease transmission. The aim of this article is to study the roles played by detection and changes in sexual behavior in the incidence and prevalence of HIV. The analytical results show that there exists a unique endemic equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable under a range of parameter values whenever a detection /treatment rate and an indirect measure of the level of infection risk are sufficiently large. However, any level of detection/ treatment rate coupled with a decrease of the transmission probability lowers the incidence rate and prevalence level in the population. In general, only significant reductions in the transmission probability (achieved through, for example, the adoption of safe sexual practices) can contain effectively the spread of the disease.     

黑龙江省东宁县山区蜱类的生态调查

我国东北地区有的蜱种已证实是传播森林脑炎、北亚蜱传斑疹伤寒的媒介。近年来,国内文献又报导了从东北牡丹江林区发现了莱姆病(Lyme Disease)病人,病人都有被婢咬史,并从全沟硬蜱(Ixodes persulcatus)的中     

Peritoneal mesothelioma mortality in Italy: Spatial analysis and search for asbestos exposure sources

BackgroundThis study is part of a national plan of epidemiological surveillance of malignant mesothelioma (MM) mortality in Italy. The paper shows the results of malignant peritoneal mesothelioma (MPeM) mortality study in Italian Regions and municipalities.MethodsNational Bureau of Statistics data for MPeM municipal mortality (ICD-10, Code C45.1) were analyzed in the time-window 2003–2014: mortality standardized rates (reference Italian population, census 2011), temporal trends of the annual national rates, Standardized Mortality Ratios and a municipal clustering analysis were performed.Results747 deaths for MPeM were recorded (0.10/100,000): 464 in men (0.14/100,000) and in 283 women (0.07/100,000). No significant MPeM mortality temporal trend was found.Seventeen municipalities showed excesses of mortality for MPeM in at least one gender and/or overall population.Four clusters in male population, and one in women were identified.ConclusionsThe study identifies some areas where remediation activities and/or health care actions may be warranted.