On the solution of mathematical models of herd immunity in human helminth infections

The general solution of the mathematical model of herd immunity to human helminth infections recently proposed by Anderson and May [3] is obtained. The numerical solution of a more accurate biological model is indistinguishable from the corresponding exact solution of a more tractable mathematical model. Computer simulations of some particular cases of this model support the notion that both ecological and immunological factors determine the observed convex patterns of age-prevalence and age-intensity curves of human helminth infections.This work was made thanks to the advise and support of Dr. Robert M. May while the author was Postdoctoral Fellow at Princeton University     

Analysis of a disease transmission model in a population with varying size

An S I R S epidemiological model with vital dynamics in a population of varying size is discussed. A complete global analysis is given which uses a new result to establish the nonexistence of periodic solutions. Results are discussed in terms of three explicit threshold parameters which respectively govern the increase of the total population, the existence and stability of an endemic proportion equilibrium and the growth of the infective population. These lead to two distinct concepts of disease eradication which involve the total number of infectives and their proportion in the population.Partially supported by NSF Grant No. DMS-8703631. This work was done while this author was visiting the University of VictoriaResearch supported in part by NSERC A-8965     

Some epidemiological models with nonlinear incidence

Epidemiological models with nonlinear incidence rates can have very different dynamic behaviors than those with the usual bilinear incidence rate. The first model considered here includes vital dynamics and a disease process where susceptibles become exposed, then infectious, then removed with temporary immunity and then susceptible again. When the equilibria and stability are investigated, it is found that multiple equilibria exist for some parameter values and periodic solutions can arise by Hopf bifurcation from the larger endemic equilibrium. Many results analogous to those in the first model are obtained for the second model which has a delay in the removed class but no exposed class.Research supported in part by Centers for Disease Control Contract 200-87-0515. Support services provided at University House Research Center at the University of IowaResearch supported in part by NSERC A-8965 and the University of Victoria President's Committee on Faculty Research and Travel     

On some formulas in a partnership model from the perspective of a semi-Markov process

Many deterministic models of sexually transmitted diseases, as well as population models in general, contain elements of stochastic or statistical reasoning. An example of such a model is that of Dietz and Hadeler (1988) concerning sexually transmitted diseases in which there is partnership formation and dissolution. Among the interesting formulas in this paper, which enter into the analysis of the model, are those for the expected number of partners a male or female has during a lifetime. To a probabilist such formulas suggest the possibility that some stochastic process may be constructed so as to yield these formulas as well as others that may be of interest. The principal purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that such a stochastic process does indeed exist in the form of a three state semi-Markov process in continuous time with stationary laws of evolution and with a one-step density matrix determined by four parameters which were interpreted as constant latent risk functions in the classical theory of competing risks. This construction of a semi-Markov process not only provides a framework for the systematic derivation of the formulas of Dietz and Hadeler but also suggests pathways,for extensions to the age-dependent case.This research was partially supported by NATO Grant D.890350     

Modelling the effect of treatment and behavioral change in HIV transmission dynamics

In this paper we analyze a model for the HIV-infection transmission in a male homosexual population. In the model we consider two types of infected individuals. Those that are infected but do not know their serological status and/or are not under any sort of clinical /therapeutical treatment, and those who are. The two groups of infectives differ in their incubation time, contact rate with susceptible individuals, and probability of disease transmission. The aim of this article is to study the roles played by detection and changes in sexual behavior in the incidence and prevalence of HIV. The analytical results show that there exists a unique endemic equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable under a range of parameter values whenever a detection /treatment rate and an indirect measure of the level of infection risk are sufficiently large. However, any level of detection/ treatment rate coupled with a decrease of the transmission probability lowers the incidence rate and prevalence level in the population. In general, only significant reductions in the transmission probability (achieved through, for example, the adoption of safe sexual practices) can contain effectively the spread of the disease.     

结合基因功能分类体系Gene Ontology筛选聚类特征基因

使用两套基因表达谱数据,按各基因的表达值方差,选择表达变异基因对样本聚类,发现一般使用方差较大的前10％的基因作为特征基因,就可以较好地对疾病样本聚类。对不同的疾病,包含聚类信息的特征基因有不同的分布特点。在此基础上,结合基因功能分类体系(Gene Ontology,GO),进一步筛选聚类的特征基因。通过检验在Gene Ontology中的每个功能类中的表达变异基因是否非随机地聚集,寻找疾病相关功能类,再根据相关功能类中的表达变异基因进行聚类分析。实验结果显示：结合基因功能体系进一步筛选表达变异基因作为聚类特征基因,可以保持或提高聚类准确性,并使得聚类结果具有明确的生物学意义。另外,发现了一些可能和淋巴瘤和白血病相关的基因。     

1999‒2015年红塔区伤寒与副伤寒流行特征和气象变量的研究

目的 分析1999‒2015年红塔区伤寒与副伤寒（typhoid and paratyphoid fever,TPF）地方病区域流行特征和气象变量的关系,为TPF监测控制和危险因素评价提供科学依据。方法 采用描述流行病学方法和自主研发计算机软件建立中国疾病预防控制信息系统红塔区TPF病例分布与流行特征数据库,用Pearson相关分析和多元线性逐步回归分析研究TPF发病和气象变量关系。结果 1999‒2015年报告TPF病例数为8 398例,1999、2015年分别报告23、44例。1999‒2015年期间每年3~5月、6~10月、11月~次年2月分别为发病上升期（月均增长率63.8%）、高峰期（月均降低率2.0%）和下降期（月均降低率25.7%）,每年度病例数都呈现3月~10月季节性升高和11月~次年2月季节性降低;2000年8月至2010年12月每月病例数都大于8例,2000‒2002、2004‒2005、2005‒2007、2007‒2008、2008‒2010年出现五个高强度流行峰,峰期范围是12～24个月,周期范围是11～40个月;2001、2004、2006、2007、2009年五个高峰年度6~10月病例数范围分别为86～217、67～215、125～216、97～131、63～95例;1999、2000、2002、2003、2005、2008、2010、2015年八个低峰年度6月~10月病例数范围分别为1～3、1～17、32～60、30～43、46～55、43～78、22～61、2～11例。单因素分析TPF月平均发病率与月平均降雨量（r=0.825,P<0.01）、月平均气温（r=0.797,P<0.01）和月平均相对湿度（r=0.706,P<0.05）呈正相关;经多元逐步回归分析建立TPF月平均发病率（Y）与月平均降雨量（X）的拟合模型方程Y=4.563+0.051X。结论 红塔区TPF发病呈现季节性升高与降低、周期性流行、长期趋势特点;发病率与降雨量、气温、相对湿度呈正相关;传染源积累、重污染源形成、暴露人群增加驱动着流行特征与气象变量关系;相应规律、机制、政策、评估有助TPF的监测控制。     

2011年河南省流行性腮腺炎流行特征分析

目的了解2011年河南省流行性腮腺炎发病水平及流行特点。方法对河南省2011年"疾病监测信息报告管理系统"的流行性腮腺炎病例资料进行分析。结果 2011年河南省共报告流行性腮腺炎20 572例,发病率为21.88/10万,发病率与2010年相比上升了35.33%,发病构成占2011年丙类传染病的16.57%,在河南省11种丙类传染病中居第3位。第一季度和第三季度发病数明显少于第二季度和第四季度,豫北豫西发病率高于豫南豫东,发病年龄以4～8岁儿童为主,发病性别男性高于女性,发病人群以学生和儿童为主。结论当前流行性腮腺炎仍然是严重危害河南省居民身体健康的重要公共卫生问题之一,建议当地政府及有关部门继续加强对流行性腮腺炎预防控制工作的投入和管理力度。     

钩端螺旋体外膜疫苗的流行病学效果评价

为了评价国产钩端螺旋体外膜疫苗的流行病学效果。于1998年6－10月,用队列研究和病例对照研究等方法在钩体病流行区5－60岁农业人口 ,观察比较接种组和对照组钩体发病情况。队列研究显示,钩体外膜疫苗对同血清群钩体的保护率为75．17％,效果指烽为4．03。1：2配对调查的疫苗保护率为81．25％,1：3配对结果为73．33％。用筛选法估计的疫苗效果为755。不同研究方法的结果相近,均一致说明,该疫苗的流行病学效果较理想。研究结果还显示,该疫苗对异血清群钩体也有一定的保护作用。     

Identification of taxonomic and epidemiological relationships among Campylobacter species by numerical analysis of AFLP profiles

Amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP)-based profiling was performed on 138 strains representing all named Campylobacter species and subspecies. Profiles of 15/16 species comprised 6 to greater than 100 fragments and were subjected to numerical analysis. The mean similarity of 48 duplicate, outbreak and/or 'identical' strain profiles exceeded 94%. Species were clearly distinguished at the 17.90% similarity (S-) level in the dendrogram. Subspecies of Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter hyointestinalis, and biovars of Campylobacter lari and Campylobacter sputorum were distinguished at higher S-levels. All outbreak or 'genetically identical' strains of C. jejuni subsp. jejuni, Campylobacter coli, C. hyointestinalis and C. sputorum clustered at S-levels >92% and were distinguished from unrelated strains. Numerical analysis of AFLP profiles is useful for concurrent identification of taxonomic and epidemiological relationships among most Campylobacter species.