An Extreme Value Analysis of Pollutant Concentrations in Surface Soils Due to Atmospheric Deposition

Risk assessments often rely on deterministic models using long-term averages or “steady-state” values of input variables. Such models do not provide the information needed to estimate acute exposures. This study uses extreme value theory to examine the frequency and magnitude of daily pollutant concentrations in surface soils predicted at six U.S. locations. Concentrations are predicted using a deposition-leaching model and 50 years of historical precipitation data. A stochastic model also is used to generate 1000 years of precipitation data as modeling inputs for each location. The annual maximum concentrations at each site are fitted to a Gumbel type I distribution to estimate occurrence probability. For soluble pollutants, the predicted concentration varied substantially with precipitation, and the maximum daily concentrations exceeded annual averages by 4 to 8 times. Observed and synthetic precipitation data produced similar results at most study locations, though the synthetic data provided a slightly better fit to the Gumbel type I distribution. The precipitation model allows the generation of representative precipitation data that extend limited historical records. The extreme value analysis facilitates the evaluation of maximum pollutant concentrations, return periods, and other statistics that are important in evaluating acute exposures.     

Biodiversity and ecosystem functioning: It is time for dispersal experiments

The experimental study of the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem function has mainly addressed the effect of species and number of functional groups. In theory, this approach has mainly focused on how extinction affects function, whereas dispersal limitation of ecosystem function has been rarely discussed. A handful of seed introduction experiments, as well as numerous observations of the effects of long‐distance dispersal of alien species, indicate that ecosystem function may be strongly determined by dispersal limitation at the local, regional and/or global scales. We suggest that it is time to replace biodiversity manipulation experiments, based on random draw of species, with those addressing realistic scenarios of either extinction or dispersal. Experiments disentangling the dispersal limitation of ecosystem function should have to take into account the probability of arrival. The latter is defined as the probability that a propagule of a particular species will arrive at a particular community. Arrival probability depends on the dispersal ability and the number of propagules of a species, the distance a species needs to travel, and the permeability of the matrix landscape. Current databases, in particular those in northwestern and central Europe now enable robust estimation of arrival probability in plant communities. We suggest a general hypothesis claiming that dispersal limitation according to arrival probability will have ecosystem‐level effects different from those arising due to random arrival. This hypothesis may be rendered more region‐, landscape‐ or ecosystem‐specific by estimating arrival probabilities for different background conditions.     

Environmental and genetic control of crassulacean acid metabolism in two crassulacean species and an F1 hybrid with differing biomass δ13C values

Abstract The growth, biomass δ¹³C values, and ability to accumulate titratable acidity at night were compared in eight environmental treatments for Cremnophila linguifolia, Sedum greggii, and their F₁ hybrid. In the phytotron, differences in treatment daylength, day/night temperature and water availability were all found to have effects on total plant dry weight, nocturnal accumulation of titratable acidity and biomass δ¹³C value of at least some of the genotypes. However, there were differences between the genotypes both in the magnitude and direction of response of the phenotypic properties to the treatment variables. The phytotron δ¹³C values ranged from -12.9 to -19.2‰ for C. linguifolia, from -22.2 to -33.4‰ for S. greggii, and from -19.2 to -24.9‰ for the hybrid. After with-holding water for 76 h both C. linguifolia and the hybrid had midday Ψ_leaf values of -0.23 MPa; however, S. greggii had a value of -1.05 MPa. In contrast to past observations of other species, the daily watered plants of C. linguifolia had less negative δ¹³C values than did the plants watered only weekly.     

How Can the Eco‐efficiency of a Region be Measured and Monitored?

The concept of eco-efficiency is commonly referred to as a business link to sustainable development. In this article, ecoefficiency is examined at a regional level as an approach to promoting the competitiveness of economic activities in the Finnish Kymenlaakso region and mitigating their harmful impacts on the environment. The aim is to develop appropriate indicators for monitoring changes in the eco-efficiency of the region. A starting point is to produce indicators for the environmental and economic dimensions of regional development and use them for measuring regional eco-efficiency. The environmental impact indicators are based on a life-cycle assessment method, producing different types of environmental impact indicators: pressure indicators (e.g., emissions of CO₂), impact category indicators (e.g., CO₂ equivalents in the case of climate change), and a total impact indicator (aggregating different impact category indicator results into a single value). Environmental impact indicators based on direct material input, total material input, and total material requirement of the Kymenlaakso region are also assessed. The economic indicators used are the gross domestic product, the value added, and the output of the main economic sectors of Kymenlaakso. In the eco-efficiency assessment, the economic and environmental impact indicators are monitored in the same graph. In a few cases eco-efficiency ratios can also be calculated (the economic indicators are divided by the environmental indicators). Output (= value added + intermediate consumption) is used as an economic indicator related to the environmental impact indicators, which also cover the upstream processes of the region's activities. In the article, we also discuss the strengths and weaknesses of using the different environmental impact indicators.     

Assessment of Optimal Selected Prognostic Factors

The identification and assessment of prognostic factors is one of the major tasks in clinical research. The assessment of one single prognostic factor can be done by recently established methods for using optimal cutpoints. Here, we suggest a method to consider an optimal selected prognostic factor from a set of prognostic factors of interest. This can be viewed as a variable selection method and is the underlying decision problem at each node of various tree building algorithms. We propose to use maximally selected statistics where the selection is defined over the set of prognostic factors and over all cutpoints in each prognostic factor. We demonstrate that it is feasible to compute the approximate null distribution. We illustrate the new variable selection test with data of the German Breast Cancer Study Group and of a small study on patients with diffuse large B‐cell lymphoma. Using the null distribution for a p‐value adjusted regression trees algorithm, we adjust for the number of variables analysed at each node as well. (© 2004 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Numerical simulation of thermal bone necrosis during cementation of femoral prostheses

The implant of a femoral prosthesis is a critical process because of the relatively high temperature values reached at the bone/cement interface during the cementation of the infibulum. In fact, the cement is actually a polymer that polymerizes in situ generating heat. Moreover, the conversion of monomer into polymer is never 100%; this is dangerous because of the toxicity of the monomer. In this paper, we present a 3-D axisymmetric mathematical model capable of taking into account both the geometry of the implant and the chemical/physical properties of the cement. This model, together with its numerical simulation, thus represents a useful tool to set up the optimal conditions for the new materials developed in this orthopaedic field. The real complex geometry is assumed to be a bone/cement/metallic system having cylindrical symmetry, thus allowing the model to be reduced to two space variables. The cementation process is described by the Fourier heat equation coupled with a suitable polymerization kinetics. The numerical approximation is accomplished by semi-implicit finite differences in time and finite elements in space with numerical quadrature. The full discrete scheme amounts to solve linear positive definite symmetric systems preceded by an elementwise algebraic computation. We present various numerical simulations which confirm some critical aspects of this orthopaedic fixing technique such as thermal bone necrosis and the presence of unreacted residual monomer.This work was partially supported by MURST (Fondi per la Ricerca Scientifica 40%) and CNR (IAN, Contract 880032601, and Progetto Finalizzato Sistemi Informatici e Calcolo Parallelo, Sottoprogetto Calcolo Scientifico per Grandi Sistemi) of Italy     

Phylogenetic and evolutionary implications of nuclear ribosomal DNA variation in dwarf dandelions (Krigia,Lactuceae, Asteraceae)

Restriction site and length variations of nrDNA were examined for 51 populations of seven species ofKrigia. The nrDNA repeat ranged in size from 8.7 to 9.6 kilobase (kb). The transcribed region, including the two ITSs, was 5.35 kb long in all examinedKrigia populations. In contrast, the size of the nontranscribed IGS varied from 3.35 to 4.25 kb. Eight different types of length-variations were identified among the 51 populations, including distinct nrDNA lengths in the tetraploid and diploid populations of bothK. biflora andK. virginica. However, a few variations were detected among populations of the same species or within a cytotype. All populations ofKrigia sect.Cymbia share a 600 bp insertion in IGS near the 18 S gene, and this feature suggests monophyly of the section. AllKrigia spp. had a conjugated type of subrepeat composed of approximately 75 basepairs (bp) and 125 bp. Base modifications in the gene coding regions were highly conserved among species. Forty-five restriction sites from 15 enzymes were mapped, 24 of which were variable among populations. Only four of the variable sites occurred in the rRNA coding region while 20 variable sites were detected in the noncoding regions. Collectively, 25 enzymes generated about 66 restriction sites in each nrDNA; this amounts to about 4.3% of the nrDNA repeat. A total of 50 restriction sites was variable, 28 of which were phylogenetically informative. Phylogenetic analyses of site mutations indicated that two sections ofKrigia, sect.Cymbia and sect.Krigia, are monophyletic. In addition, relationships among several species were congruent with other sources of data, such as cpDNA restriction site variation and morphology. Both length and restriction site variation supported an allopolyploid origin of the hexaploidK. montana. The average sequence divergence value inKrigia nrDNA was 40 times greater than that of the chloroplast DNA. The rapid evolution of nrDNA sequences was primarily due to changes of the IGS sequences.     

The nitrogen cycle in lodgepole pine forests,southeastern Wyoming

Storage and flux of nitrogen were studied in several contrasting lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta spp.latifolia) forests in southeastern Wyoming. The mineral soil contained most of the N in these ecosystems (range of 315–860 g · m^–2), with aboveground detritus (37.5–48.8g · m^–2) and living biomass (19.5–24.0 g · m^–2) storing much smaller amounts. About 60–70% of the total N in vegetation was aboveground, and N concentrations in plant tissues were unusually low (foliage = 0.7% N), as were N input via wet precipitation (0.25 g · m^–2 · yr^–1), and biological fixation of atmospheric N (<0.03 g · m^–2 · yr^–1, except locally in some stands at low elevations where symbiotic fixation by the leguminous herbLupinus argenteus probably exceeded 0.1 g · m^–2 · yr^–1).Because of low concentrations in litterfall and limited opportunity for leaching, N accumulated in decaying leaves for 6–7 yr following leaf fall. This process represented an annual flux of about 0.5g · m^–2 to the 01 horizon. Only 20% of this flux was provided by throughfall, with the remaining 0.4g · m^–2 · yr^–1 apparently added from layers below. Low mineralization and small amounts of N uptake from the 02 are likely because of minimal rooting in the forest floor (as defined herein) and negligible mineral N (< 0.05 mg · L^–1) in 02 leachate. A critical transport process was solubilization of organic N, mostly fulvic acids. Most of the organic N from the forest floor was retained within the major tree rooting zone (0–40 cm), and mineralization of soil organic N provided NH₄ for tree uptake. Nitrate was at trace levels in soil solutions, and a long lag in nitrification was always observed under disturbed conditions. Total root nitrogen uptake was calculated to be 1.25 gN · m^–2 · yr^–1 with estimated root turnover of 0.37-gN · m^–2 · yr^–1, and the soil horizons appeared to be nearly in balance with respect to N. The high demand for mineralized N and the precipitation of fulvic acid in the mineral soil resulted in minimal deep leaching in most stands (< 0.02 g · m^–2 · yr^–1). These forests provide an extreme example of nitrogen behavior in dry, infertile forests.