Water inputs across a tropical montane landscape in Veracruz,Mexico: synergistic effects of land cover,rain and fog seasonality,and interannual precipitation variability

Land‐cover change can alter the spatiotemporal distribution of water inputs to mountain ecosystems, an important control on land‐surface and land‐atmosphere hydrologic fluxes. In eastern Mexico, we examined the influence of three widespread land‐cover types, montane cloud forest, coffee agroforestry, and cleared areas, on total and net water inputs to soil. Stand structural characteristics, as well as rain, fog, stemflow, and throughfall (water that falls through the canopy) water fluxes were measured across 11 sites during wet and dry seasons from 2005 to 2008. Land‐cover type had a significant effect on annual and seasonal net throughfall (NTF <0=canopy water retention plus canopy evaporation; NTF >0=fog water deposition). Forest canopies retained and/or lost to evaporation (i.e. NTF<0) five‐ to 11‐fold more water than coffee agroforests. Moreover, stemflow was fourfold higher under coffee shade than forest trees. Precipitation seasonality and phenological patterns determined the magnitude of these land‐cover differences, as well as their implications for the hydrologic cycle. Significant negative relationships were found between NTF and tree leaf area index (R²=0.38, P<0.002), NTF and stand basal area (R²=0.664, P<0.002), and stemflow and epiphyte loading (R²=0.414, P<0.001). These findings indicate that leaf and epiphyte surface area reductions associated with forest conversion decrease canopy water retention/evaporation, thereby increasing throughfall and stemflow inputs to soil. Interannual precipitation variability also altered patterns of water redistribution across this landscape. Storms and hurricanes resulted in little difference in forest‐coffee wet season NTF, while El Niño Southern Oscillation was associated with a twofold increase in dry season rain and fog throughfall water deposition. In montane headwater regions, changes in water delivery to canopies and soils may affect infiltration, runoff, and evapotranspiration, with implications for provisioning (e.g. water supply) and regulating (e.g. flood mitigation) ecosystem services.     

Spatio‐temporal variation of salt marsh seedling establishment in relation to the abiotic and biotic environment

Contrary to our expectations, soil salinity and moisture explained little of the spatial variation in plant establishment in the upper intertidal marsh of three southern California wetlands, but did explain the timing of germination. Seedlings of 27 species were identified in 1996 and 1997. The seedlings were abundant (maximum densities of 2143/m² in 1996 and 1819/m² in 1997) and predominantly annual species. CCAs quantified the spatial variation in seedling density that could be explained by three groups of predictor variables: (1) perennial plant cover, elevation and soil texture (16% of variation), (2) wetland identity (14% of variation) and (3) surface soil salinity and moisture (2% of variation). Increasing the spatial scale of analysis changed the variables that best predicted patterns of species densities. Timing of germination depended on surface soil salinity and, to a lesser extent, soil moisture. Germination occurred after salinity had dropped below a threshold or, in some cases, after moisture had increased above a critical level. Between 32% and 92% of the seedlings were exotic and most of these occurred at lower soil salinity than native species. However, Parapholis incurva and Mesembryanthemum nodiflorum were found in the same environments as the native species. In 1997, the year of a strong El Niño/Southern Oscillation event with high rainfall and sea levels, the elevation distribution of species narrowed and densities of P. incurva and other exotic species decreased but densities of native and rare species did not change. The ‘regeneration niche’ of wetland plant communities includes the effects of multiple abiotic and biotic factors on both the spatial and temporal variations in plant establishment.     

Resource-related variables drive individual variation in flowering phenology and mediate population-level flowering responses to climate in an asynchronously reproducing palm

Many tropical plant species show wide intra-population variation in reproductive timing, resulting in the protracted presence of flowering and fruiting individuals. Various eco-evolutionary drivers have been proposed as ultimate causes for asynchronous phenology, yet little is known about the proximate factors that control reproductive onset among individuals or that influence the proportion of trees producing new inflorescences within a population. We employed a nine-year phenological record from 178 individuals of the hyperdominant, asynchronously flowering canopy palm, Oenocarpus bataua (Arecaceae)¸ to assess whether resource-related variables influence individual- and population-level flowering phenology. Among individuals, access to sunlight increased rates of inflorescence production, while the presence of resource sinks related to current investment in reproduction—developing infructescences—reduced the probability of producing new inflorescences. At the population level, climate anomalies induced by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affected the proportion of the population producing inflorescences through time. Moreover, the effects of ENSO anomalies on flowering patterns depended on the prevalence of developing infructescences in the population, with stronger effects in periods of low developing-infructescence frequency. Taken together, these results suggest that resource-related variables can drive phenological differences among individuals and mediate population-level responses to larger-scale variables, such as climate anomalies. Consequently, a greater focus on the role of resource levels as endogenous cues for reproduction might help explain the frequent aseasonal phenological patterns observed among tropical plants, particularly those showing high intra-population asynchrony.     

Aquatic carbon fluxes dampen the overall variation of net ecosystem productivity in the Amazon basin: An analysis of the interannual variability in the boundless carbon cycle

The river–floodplain network plays an important role in the carbon (C) cycle of the Amazon basin, as it transports and processes a significant fraction of the C fixed by terrestrial vegetation, most of which evades as CO₂ from rivers and floodplains back to the atmosphere. There is empirical evidence that exceptionally dry or wet years have an impact on the net C balance in the Amazon. While seasonal and interannual variations in hydrology have a direct impact on the amounts of C transferred through the river–floodplain system, it is not known how far the variation of these fluxes affects the overall Amazon C balance. Here, we introduce a new wetland forcing file for the ORCHILEAK model, which improves the representation of floodplain dynamics and allows us to closely reproduce data‐driven estimates of net C exports through the river–floodplain network. Based on this new wetland forcing and two climate forcing datasets, we show that across the Amazon, the percentage of net primary productivity lost to the river–floodplain system is highly variable at the interannual timescale, and wet years fuel aquatic CO₂ evasion. However, at the same time overall net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and C sequestration are highest during wet years, partly due to reduced decomposition rates in water‐logged floodplain soils. It is years with the lowest discharge and floodplain inundation, often associated with El Nino events, that have the lowest NEP and the highest total (terrestrial plus aquatic) CO₂ emissions back to atmosphere. Furthermore, we find that aquatic C fluxes display greater variation than terrestrial C fluxes, and that this variation significantly dampens the interannual variability in NEP of the Amazon basin. These results call for a more integrative view of the C fluxes through the vegetation‐soil‐river‐floodplain continuum, which directly places aquatic C fluxes into the overall C budget of the Amazon basin.     

Teleconnection between the early immigration of brown planthopper (Nilaparvata lugens Stål) and ENSO indices: implication for its medium- and long-term forecast

Teleconnection between the early immigration of brown planthopper (BPH) and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices from January of two years previously to the current June was investigated to make long-term forecast. The teleconnection results were as follows: ENSO indices which were significantly correlated with the early immigration of BPH were primarily sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in N3, N4 and N3.4 regions, accounting for 71.8% of the total. Significant ENSO indices from two years and one year before the immigration events had a proportion of about 84%, while those in the current year only accounted for 16.7%. There was significantly negative correlation between the early immigration of BPH and SSTA in each Nino region from two years before to the previous spring, whereas there was significantly positive correlation between these two factors during the period from the previous winter to the current spring. The significant correlation between the early immigration of BPH and SSTA in each Nino region in the last summer and autumn did not show any obvious tendencies. The relationship between the southern oscillation index (SOI) and the early immigration of BPH was opposite to that between the immigration and SSTA in each Nino region. The above mentioned significant ENSO indices were used as key factors to build forecasting models for the early immigration of BPH by step-wise multiple linear regression analysis. Finally, 12 integrated forecasting models were obtained, which could make predictions 3–27 months ahead and had a predictive accuracy of 88.9%.     

The population dynamics of three polyphagous owlet moths (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) and the influence of meteorological factors and ENSO on them

The owlet moths (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) Anicla infecta (Ochsenheimer 1816), Elaphria agrotina (Guenée 1852) and Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith 1797) occur in the entire American continent. These polyphagous moths have a preference for grasses, and have different biological habits. In this study, the populations of these three species were evaluated monthly with light traps in the Brazilian Savannah, ranging a span of four crop seasons (from July, 2013 to June, 2017). The population data were analyzed and correlated with the meteorological variables: maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity and precipitation. A total of 4719 individuals were collected in the following percentages: A. infecta (n = 459; 9.73%), E. agrotina (n = 1809; 38.33%) and S. frugiperda (n = 2451; (51.94%). The abundance of all species went down from the first crop season (2013/2014) to the third (2015/2016). In the fourth crop season (2016/2017), the populations of A. infecta and E. agrotina stabilized, but the abundance of S. frugiperda experienced further decrease. The numbers of individuals of three species declined when precipitation was much above (crop season 2014/2015) and below (crop season 2015/2016) than expected by the climatological normal. There were significant, but different degrees of correlation, between the meteorological factors and the ONI index (Oceanic Niño Index - indicator for monitoring El Niño-Southern Oscillation or “ENSO”) with respect to monthly population variations. The results are discussed in accordance with principles of the Integrated Pest Management (IPM) in mind, given the continental distribution and agricultural importance of the three owlet moth species studied.     

Teleconnection between the early immigration of brown planthopper (Nilaparvata lugens St?l) and ENSO indices: implication for its medium- and long-term forecast

Teleconnection between the early immigration of brown planthopper (BPH) and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices from January of two years previously to the current June was investigated to make long-term forecast. The teleconnection results were as follows: ENSO indices which were significantly correlated with the early immigration of BPH were primarily sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in N3, N4 and N3.4 regions, accounting for 71.8% of the total. Significant ENSO indices from two years and one year before the immigration events had a proportion of about 84%, while those in the current year only accounted for 16.7%. There was significantly negative correlation between the early immigration of BPH and SSTA in each Nino region from two years before to the previous spring, whereas there was significantly positive correlation between these two factors during the period from the previous winter to the current spring. The significant correlation between the early immigration of BPH and SSTA in each Nino region in the last summer and autumn did not show any obvious tendencies. The relationship between the southern oscillation index (SOI) and the early immigration of BPH was opposite to that between the immigration and SSTA in each Nino region. The above mentioned significant ENSO indices were used as key factors to build forecasting models for the early immigration of BPH by step-wise multiple linear regression analysis. Finally, 12 integrated forecasting models were obtained, which could make predictions 3–27 months ahead and had a predictive accuracy of 88.9%.     

Predictability of coral bleaching from synoptic satellite and in situ temperature observations

Satellite and compiled in situ observations of sea surface temperatures have greatly increased the ability to detect anomalous and persistent warm water and are being widely used to predict climate change, coral bleaching and mortality. A field-based synoptic view of coral bleaching spanning eight countries and ∼35° of latitude in the western Indian Ocean tested the accuracy of synoptic temperature data derived from satellites and shipboard data to detect and predict bleaching during 2005. The ability to predict the degree of bleaching based on degree heating weeks data was moderate, but increased when past temperature anomalies and coral community susceptibility were included. It is estimated that slightly more than half of the bleaching response is due to anomalous warm water and nearly half due to taxa and community level acclimation or adaptation, where these two factors have opposing effects. Cumulative temperature anomalies do identify general areas with bleaching but both large over and underestimates of bleaching intensity were observed. Consequently, field observations are needed to confirm the synoptic satellite predictions for particular reefs, particularly where acclimation and reorganization of the coral community have occurred due to past bleaching events.     

近60年秦岭山地旱涝变化规律

随着极端气候变化,山地灾害频发。基于秦岭山地32个气象站点的实测数据,以标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)为旱涝量化指标,研究了过去60年秦岭山地旱涝时空变化特征、频率、周期等变化规律,结果表明：(1)1960—2019年,秦岭山地年SPEI指数以0.124/10a的速度下降,其中,90.23%的面积呈显著下降趋势,1.96%的面积呈显著上升趋势,并在1990年发生干旱突变;秦岭北坡的干旱化趋势大于南坡,且高海拔地区干旱化更为明显。(2)突变前秦岭山地湿润比例平均值为36.94%,突变后下降为18.19%;干旱比例由突变前的17.64%急剧上升到突变后的38.19%;突变前30年秦岭山地极端干旱事件、严重干旱事件极少发生,发生频率几乎为0;突变后30年严重干旱和极端干旱事件发生频率增加,秦岭南北坡极端湿润和严重湿润事件近乎销声匿迹。(3)整体上,太阳黑子与秦岭山地旱涝变化以显著负相关关系为主;ENSO事件对秦岭山地的旱涝变化影响较大,在La Nina年易发生洪涝事件,在El Ni1o年易发生干旱事件;在不同时域范围内,海表温度距平(SSTA)对秦岭山地旱涝变化的影响不同：1990年以前,S...     

Soluble Reactive Phosphorus Transport and Retention in Tropical, Rainforest Streams Draining a Volcanic and Geothermally Active Landscape in Costa Rica. : Long-Term Concentration Patterns, Pore Water Environment and Response to ENSO Events

Soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) transport/retention was determined at four sites in three rainforest streams draining La Selva Biological Station, Costa Rica. La Selva is located at the base of the last remaining intact rainforest transect from 30 m above sea level to 3000 m along the entire Caribbean slope of Central America. Steam SRP levels can be naturally high there due to regional, geothermal groundwater discharged at ambient temperature. Monitoring since 1988 has revealed distinctive long-term differences in background SRP and total P (TP) for three streams in close proximity, and identified the impact of ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) events on SRP-enriched reaches. Mean interannual SRP concentrations (± standard deviation) were 89 ± 53μg/l in the Salto (1988–1996), 21 ± 39μg/l in the Pantano (1988–1998), and 26 ± 35μg/l in the Sabalo (1988–1996). After January, 1997 the separate upland-lowland contributions to discharge and SRP load were determined monthly in the Salto. SRP in Upper Salto was low (19 ± 8μg/l, 1997–2002) until enriched at␣the upland-lowland transition by regional groundwater. Mean SRP concentration in Lower␣Salto (108 ± 104μg/l) was typically highest February–April, the driest months, and lowest July–September, the wettest. SRP concentration was positively correlated to the inverse of discharge in Lower Salto when ENSO data were omitted (1992 and 1998–1999), but not in the Upper Salto, Pantano, or Sabalo. TP was positively correlated to the inverse of discharge in all three streams when ENSO data were omitted. High SRP springs and seeps along the Lower Salto contributed 36% of discharge but 85% of SRP export 1997–2001. Annual SRP flux from the total Salto watershed (1997–2001) averaged 2.9 kg/ha year, but only 0.6 kg/ha year from the Upper Salto. A dye tracer injection showed that pore water environments were distinctly different between Upper and Lower Salto. Upper Salto had high surface water–pore water exchange, high dissolved oxygen, low SRP, and low conductivity similar to surface water, and Lower Salto had low surface water–pore water exchange, low dissolved oxygen, high SRP, and high conductivity reflecting geothermal groundwater influence. SRP export from the Salto was controlled by regional groundwater transfer, which in similar volcanic settings could be a significant P source. However, ENSO events modified the SRP concentration in the Salto suggesting that long-term monitoring is required to understand underlying SRP dynamics and P flux to downstream communities.