Petersen and removal population size estimates: combining methods to adjust and interpret results when assumptions are violated

Synopsis We present ways to test the assumptions of the Petersen and removal methods of population size estimation and ways to adjust the estimates if violations of the assumptions are found. We were motivated by the facts that (1) results of using both methods are commonly reported without any reference to the testing of assumptions, (2) violations of the assumptions are more likely to occur than not to occur in natural populations, and (3) the estimates can be grossly in error if assumptions are violated. We recognize that in many cases two days in the field is the most time fish biologists can spend in obtaining a population estimate, so the use of alternative models of population estimation that require fewer assumptions is precluded. Hence, for biologists operating with these constraints and only these biologists, we describe and recommend a two-day technique that combines aspects of both capture-recapture and removal methods. We indicate how to test: most of the assumptions of both methods and how to adjust the population estimates obtained if violations of the assumptions occur. We also illustrate the use of this combined method with data from a field study. The results of this application further emphasize the importance of testing the assumptions of whatever method is used and making appropriate adjustments to the population size estimates for any violations identified.     

Evidence for plasticity in the frequency of skipped breeding opportunities in common toads

Breeding is limited by energetic or environmental constraints and long-lived species sometimes skip breeding opportunities. Environmental conditions may vary considerably across the geographic and elevational range of a species and species that can respond through variation in life history strategies are likely to maintain populations at the extremes of their ranges. The decision to skip breeding enables animals to adjust life history to circumstances, and plasticity in behavior allows implementation of adjustments. Elevational patterns suggest that breeding may be limited physiologically at high elevations (e.g., greater probability of skipped breeding; resources and environmental conditions more variable) in contrast to low elevations (probability of skipping breeding lower; resources and environmental conditions more predictable). We estimated the probabilities of survival and skipped breeding in a high-elevation population of common toads and compared estimates to existing data for common toads at low elevations, and to another toad species inhabiting a similar high elevation environment. Female common toads at high elevations tend to have high probabilities of skipping breeding and survival relative to data for common toads at low elevations, and appear to use a similar strategy of skipping breeding in response to similar environmental constraints as other toads at high elevations. We provide evidence of variability in this aspect of life history for common toads. Understanding variation in life history within widely distributed species is critical. Knowing that certain life history strategies are employed on a continuum informs conservation efforts, especially as impacts of climate change are likely to be different depending on elevation.     

Capture-recapture, epidemiology, and list mismatches: several lists

In applying capture-recapture methods for closed populations to epidemiology, e.g., in the estimation of the size of a diabetes population, one comes up against the problem of list errors due to mistyping or misinformation. This problem has been studied for just two lists by Seber, Huakau, and Simmons (2000, Biometrics 56, 1227 1232) using the concept of tag loss borrowed from animal population studies. In this article, we discuss a similar method that can be extended to an arbitrary number of lists. The methods are applied to an example.     

Nonidentifiability of population size from capture-recapture data with heterogeneous detection probabilities

Heterogeneity in detection probabilities has long been recognized as problematic in mark-recapture studies, and numerous models developed to accommodate its effects. Individual heterogeneity is especially problematic, in that reasonable alternative models may predict essentially identical observations from populations of substantially different sizes. Thus even with very large samples, the analyst will not be able to distinguish among reasonable models of heterogeneity, even though these yield quite distinct inferences about population size. The problem is illustrated with models for closed and open populations.     

A unified parametric regression model for recapture studies with random removals in continuous time

Conditional likelihood based on counting processes are combined with a Horvitz-Thompson estimator to yield a population size estimator that is more efficient than the existing ones. Random removals are allowed in the recapturing process. Simulation studies are shown to assess the performance of the proposed estimators. Examples on a bird banding and a small mammal recapturing study are given.     

Factors affecting the activity of two species of eel (Anguilla spp.) in a small New Zealand lake

Fyke net captures of both the shortfinned eel, Anguilla ausrralis Richardson, and the longfinned eel. A. dieffenbachü Gray, were recorded over a 4-year period in Lake Pounui. New Zealand. Eel activity measured as catch per unit effort (CPUE) was correlated to 36 indices of water temperature water level, barometric pressure, amount of light at night and lunar period using multiple regression analysis. For longfinned eels, water temperature was the only individual parameter significantly related (P<0.001) to CPUE. The multiple regression model was improved (R²= 0.29. P <0.01) by the addition of lunar phase and change in barometric pressure. Water level was the most important parameter in the model for shortfinned eels, although water temperature and change in barometric pressure were significant influences in the predictability of the model (R²= 0.51. P<0.001.     

CAN SELECTION BY AN ECTOPARASITE DRIVE A POPULATION OF RED CROSSBILLS FROM ITS ADAPTIVE PEAK?

The bill structures of different call types of red crossbills (Loxia curvirostra complex) in western North America usually approximate the predicted optima for foraging on single species of conifers. One clear exception is the call type in the South Hills, Idaho, that is coevolving in an evolutionary arms race with Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta ssp. latifolia). Although South Hills crossbills forage only on the cones of these lodgepole pines, their average bill depth is smaller than that predicted to be optimal. Because preliminary data showed that large-billed males were more likely to exhibit symptoms of ectoparasitic mite (Knemidokoptes jamaicensis) infestation, the goal of our study was to further quantify the incidence of mite infestation and determine whether selection by mites may have favored smaller-billed crossbills and thus driven crossbills away from the foraging optimum. We estimated annual survival of both infected and uninfected South Hills crossbills using program MARK, which allows for auxiliary variables such as bill size and sex to be included in survival analyses. Mite infestation depressed crossbill survival and, especially for males, caused directional selection against larger-billed individuals. Such selection may explain why South Hills crossbills have smaller bills than the optimum and why average bill size for males has decreased from 1998 to 2003. This selection may also explain why the degree of sexual size dimorphism has decreased by nearly 50% since 1998.