Oscillatory reaction-diffusion equations on rings

We study the behavior of traveling waves in - systems on both homogeneous and inhomogeneous rings. The stability regions in parameter space of - waves were previously known [15, 19]; the results are extended here. We show the existence of Hopf bifurcations of traveling waves and the stability of the limit cycles born at the Hopf bifurcation for some parameter ranges. Using a Lindstedt-type perturbation scheme, we formally construct periodic solutions of the - system near a Hopf bifurcation and show that the periodic solutions superimposed on the original traveling wave have the effect of altering its overall frequency and amplitude. We also study the - system on an annulus ofvariable width, which does not possess reflection symmetry about any axis. We formally construct traveling waves on this variable-width annulus by a perturbation scheme, and find that perturbing the width of the annulus alters the amplitude and frequency of traveling waves on the domain by a small (order ²) amount. For typical parameter values, we find that the speed, frequency, and stability are unaffected by the direction of travel of the wave on the annulus, despite the rotationally asymmetric inhomogeneity. This indicates that the - system on a variable-width domain cannot account for directional preferences of traveling waves in biological systems.     

Bifurcation analysis of periodic SEIR and SIR epidemic models

The bifurcations of the periodic solutions of SEIR and SIR epidemic models with sinusoidally varying contact rate are investigated. The analysis is carried out with respect to two parameters: the mean value and the degree of seasonality of the contact rate. The corresponding portraits in the two-parameter space are obtained by means of a numerical continuation method. Codimension two bifurcations (degenerate flips and cusps) are detected, and multiple stable modes of behavior are identified in various regions of the parameter space. Finally, it is shown how the parametric portrait of the SEIR model tends to that of the SIR model when the latent period tends to zero.     

Dynamic stability of a human standing on a balance board

The neuromuscular system used to stabilize upright posture in humans is a nonlinear dynamical system with time delays. The analysis of this system is important for improving balance and for early diagnosis of neuromuscular disease. In this work, we study the dynamic coupling between the neuromuscular system and a balance board—an unstable platform often used to improve balance in young athletes, and older or neurologically impaired patients. Using a simple inverted pendulum model of human posture on a balance board, we describe a surprisingly broad range of divergent and oscillatory CoP/CoM responses associated with instabilities of the upright equilibrium. The analysis predicts that a variety of sudden changes in the stability of upright postural equilibrium occurs with slow continuous deterioration in balance board stiffness, neuromuscular gain, and time delay associated with the changes in proprioceptive/vestibular/visual-neuromuscular feedback. The analysis also provides deeper insight into changes in the control of posture that enable stable upright posture on otherwise unstable platforms.     

Parametric dependence in model epidemics. I: Contact-related parameters

One of the interesting properties of nonlinear dynamical systems is that arbitrarily small changes in parameter values can induce qualitative changes in behavior. The changes are called bifurcations, and they are typically visualized by plotting asymptotic dynamics against a parameter. In some cases, the resulting bifurcation diagram is unique: irrespective of initial conditions, the same dynamical sequence obtains. In other cases, initial conditions do matter, and there are coexisting sequences. Here we study an epidemiological model in which multiple bifurcation sequences yield to a single sequence in response to varying a second parameter. We call this simplification the emergence of unique parametric dependence (UPD) and discuss how it relates to the model’s overall response to parameters. In so doing, we tie together a number of threads that have been developing since the mid-1980s. These include period-doubling; subharmonic resonance, attractor merging and subduction and the evolution of strange invariant sets. The present paper focuses on contact related parameters. A follow-up paper, to be published in this journal, will consider the effects of non-contact related parameters.     

Chaos and population disappearances in simple ecological models

A class of truncated unimodal discrete-time single species models for which low or high densities result in extinction in the following generation are considered. A classification of the dynamics of these maps into five types is proven: (i) extinction in finite time for all initial densities, (ii) semistability in which all orbits tend toward the origin or a semi-stable fixed point, (iii) bistability for which the origin and an interval bounded away from the origin are attracting, (iv) chaotic semistability in which there is an interval of chaotic dynamics whose compliment lies in the origin’s basin of attraction and (v) essential extinction in which almost every (but not every) initial population density leads to extinction in finite time. Applying these results to the Logistic, Ricker and generalized Beverton-Holt maps with constant harvesting rates, two birfurcations are shown to lead to sudden population disappearances: a saddle node bifurcation corresponding to a transition from bistability to extinction and a chaotic blue sky catastrophe corresponding to a transition from bistability to essential extinction. Received: 14 February 2000 / Revised version: 15 August 2000 / Published online: 16 February 2001     

Epidemiological effects of seasonal oscillations in birth rates

Seasonal oscillations in birth rates are ubiquitous in human populations. These oscillations might play an important role in infectious disease dynamics because they induce seasonal variation in the number of susceptible individuals that enter populations. We incorporate seasonality of birth rate into the standard, deterministic susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) and susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) epidemic models and identify parameter regions in which birth seasonality can be expected to have observable epidemiological effects. The SIR and SEIR models yield similar results if the infectious period in the SIR model is compared with the "infected period" (the sum of the latent and infectious periods) in the SEIR model. For extremely transmissible pathogens, large amplitude birth seasonality can induce resonant oscillations in disease incidence, bifurcations to stable multi-year epidemic cycles, and hysteresis. Typical childhood infectious diseases are not sufficiently transmissible for their asymptotic dynamics to be likely to exhibit such behaviour. However, we show that fold and period-doubling bifurcations generically occur within regions of parameter space where transients are phase-locked onto cycles resembling the limit cycles beyond the bifurcations, and that these phase-locking regions extend to arbitrarily small amplitude of seasonality of birth rates. Consequently, significant epidemiological effects of birth seasonality may occur in practice in the form of transient dynamics that are sustained by demographic stochasticity.     

The dynamics of the rec-system in variable environments: haploid selection in a cyclical two-state environment

The dynamics of a 3-locus infinite population with non-overlapping generations and panmixia was studied. Loci are di-allelic: two loci affect fitness under cyclical symmetric haploid selection while the third one is a modifier of recombination (rec-modifier). Selection favors alternatively haplotypes AB and ab or Ab and aB. It has been proven that under alternating selection (when period of selection consists of two generations) a dominant suppressor of recombination is displaced and the allele for non-zero recombination becomes fixed within the population. For populations with inversion heterozygosity within the selective system (i.e. with zero recombination in heterozygote for rec-modifier and non-zero for homozygotes) fixation of one of the alleles (depending on the initial point) at the rec-modifier locus is predicted. For other values of recombination parameters, the behavior of the system was studied numerically. A full bifurcation picture of parameters was obtained. Many of the results related to the case of a two-generation period hold also in the case of longer period lengths.     

Structure and elastic properties of tunneling nanotubes

We investigate properties of a reported new mechanism for cell–cell interactions, tunneling nanotubes (TNT’s). TNT’s mediate actin-based transfer of vesicles and organelles and they allow signal transmission between cells. The effects of lateral pulling with polystyrene beads trapped by optical tweezers on TNT’s linking separate U-87 MG human glioblastoma cells in culture are described. This cell line was chosen for handling ease and possible pathology implications of TNT persistence in communication between cancerous cells. Observed nanotubes are shown to have the characteristic features of TNT’s. We find that pulling induces two different types of TNT bifurcations. In one of them, termed V-Y bifurcation, the TNT is first distorted into a V-shaped form, following which a new branch emerges from the apex. In the other one, termed I-D bifurcation, the pulled TNT is bent into a curved arc of increasingly broader span. Curves showing the variation of pulling force with displacement are obtained. Results yield information on TNT structure and elastic properties. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Numerical exploration of the parameter plane in a discrete predator–prey model

We propose a variant of the discrete Lotka–Volterra model for predator–prey interactions. A detailed stability and numerical analysis of the model are presented to explore the long time behaviour as each of the control parameter is varied independently. We show how the condition for survival of the predator depends on the natural death rate of predator and the efficiency of predation. The model is found to support different dynamical regimes asymptotically including predator extinction, stable fixed point and limit cycle attractors for co-existence of predator and prey and more complex dynamics involving chaotic attractors. We are able to locate exactly the domain of chaos in the parameter plane using a dimensional analysis.