Exclosure fences around nests of imperiled Florida Grasshopper Sparrows reduce rates of predation by mammals

Increasing nest survival by excluding predators is a goal of many bird conservation programs. However, new exclosure projects should be carefully evaluated to assess the potential risks of disturbance. We tested the effectiveness of predator exclosure fences (hereafter, fences) for nests of critically endangered Florida Grasshopper Sparrows (Ammodramus savannarum floridanus) at a dry prairie site (Three Lakes; 2015–2018) and a pasture site (the Ranch; 2015–2016) in Osceola County, Florida, USA. We installed fences at nests an average of 8 days after the start of incubation, and nest abandonment after fence installation was rare (2 of 149 installations). Predation was the leading cause of failure for unfenced nests at both sites (48–73%). At Three Lakes, nest cameras revealed that mammals and snakes were responsible for 61.5% and 38.5% of predation events, respectively, at unfenced nests. Fences reduced the daily probability of predation (0.016 for fenced nests vs. 0.074 for unfenced nests). The probability that a fenced nest would survive from discovery to fledging was more than double that of unfenced nests (60.4% vs. 27.7%). However, we found no difference in daily nest survival at the Ranch between the year before nests were fenced (2015; 0.874) and the year when all but one nest were fenced (2016; 0.867) because red imported fire ants (Solenopsis invicta) were responsible for 86% of predation events at fenced nests at the Ranch. The use of cameras at fenced nests revealed that site‐specific differences in nest predators explained variation in fence efficiency between sites. Our fence design may be useful for other species of grassland birds, but site‐specific predator communities and species‐specific response of target bird species to fences should be assessed before installing fences at other sites.     

Values,Errors, and Precautions

In the environmental health literature, errors in interpreting studies or data are not infrequent. Many are of the Type II variety. Common solecisms of this type are: treating the criterion of p < 0.05 as a sacrament; demanding complete confounder control; arguing for the existence of phantom confounders; arguing that the effect size is trivial; building nonveridical models; arguing for no effect from inadequate sample size; demanding causal proof; arguing that causality is reversed; conducting a ballot of published studies. These are examined in this paper.     

Externally attached radio transmitters do not affect the parental care behaviour of rock bass

Turning, pectoral fin and caudal fin rates and time spent on the nest of male rock bass Ambloplites rupestris , engaged in parental care, were not affected after the attachment of external radio transmitters. Reproductive success was similar between treatment and control fish. Micro external radio transmitters can be used on small fishes for studying parental care duration and post-care movement without altering their behaviour.     

Priors for the Bayesian star paradox

We show that the Bayesian star paradox, first proved mathematically by Steel and Matsen for a specific class of prior distributions, occurs in a wider context including less regular, possibly discontinuous, prior distributions.     

Spatial and temporal factors associated with nest survival of Gray Flycatchers in managed ponderosa pine forests

Gray Flycatchers (Empidonax wrightii) breed in a variety of habitats in the arid and semi‐arid regions of the western United States, but little is known about their breeding biology, especially in the northern portion of their range where they nest in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests. From May to July 2014 and 2015, we conducted surveys for singing male Gray Flycatchers along the eastern slope of the Cascade Range in Washington, U.S.A, monitored flycatcher nests, and quantified nest‐site vegetation. We used a logistic‐exposure model fit within a Bayesian framework to model the daily survival probability of flycatcher nests. During the 2 yr of our study, we monitored 141 nests, with 93% in ponderosa pines. Mean clutch size was 3.6 eggs and the mean number of young fledged per nest was 3.2. Predation accounted for 90% of failed nests. We found a positive association between daily nest survival and both nest height and distance of nest substrates from the nearest tree. Flycatchers that locate their nests higher above the ground and further from adjacent trees may be choosing the safest alternative because higher nests may be less exposed to terrestrial predators and nests in trees that are farther from other trees may be less exposed to arboreal predators such as jays (Corvidae) that may forage in patches with connected canopies. Nests in trees farther from other trees may also allow earlier detection of approaching predators and thus aid in nest defense.     

Focus: A Multifaceted Battle Against Cancer: Extracting Knowledge from Chemical Imaging Data Using Computational Algorithms for Digital Cancer Diagnosis

Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopic imaging is an emerging microscopy modality for clinical histopathologic diagnoses as well as for biomedical research. Spectral data recorded in this modality are indicative of the underlying, spatially resolved biochemical composition but need computerized algorithms to digitally recognize and transform this information to a diagnostic tool to identify cancer or other physiologic conditions. Statistical pattern recognition forms the backbone of these recognition protocols and can be used for highly accurate results. Aided by biochemical correlations with normal and diseased states and the power of modern computer-aided pattern recognition, this approach is capable of combating many standing questions of traditional histology-based diagnosis models. For example, a simple diagnostic test can be developed to determine cell types in tissue. As a more advanced application, IR spectral data can be integrated with patient information to predict risk of cancer, providing a potential road to precision medicine and personalized care in cancer treatment. The IR imaging approach can be implemented to complement conventional diagnoses, as the samples remain unperturbed and are not destroyed. Despite high potential and utility of this approach, clinical implementation has not yet been achieved due to practical hurdles like speed of data acquisition and lack of optimized computational procedures for extracting clinically actionable information rapidly. The latter problem has been addressed by developing highly efficient ways to process IR imaging data but remains one that has considerable scope for progress. Here, we summarize the major issues and provide practical considerations in implementing a modified Bayesian classification protocol for digital molecular pathology. We hope to familiarize readers with analysis methods in IR imaging data and enable researchers to develop methods that can lead to the use of this promising technique for digital diagnosis of cancer.     

Testing for Validity and Reliability in Cross-Cultural Research

A set of procedures is offered for assessing interraler reliability and certain aspects of validity of codes in cross-cultural studies. The method assumes that at least two independent raters have coded more than one trait. Each trait coded by one rater is correlated with each trait coded by a second, and all the codings by a single rater are intercorrelated with each other. The results are presented in a multitrait-multi-rater matrix. From this matrix it is possible to determine the interrater reliability and discriminant validity of trails in addition to a higher order concept based on pairs of traits.     

Robust Selection of the Most Discriminative Variables in the Dichotomous Problem with Application to Some Respiratory Disease Data

A robust method for selection of variables with the greatest discriminatory power is presented in the paper. The method deals with the two groups of data problem. An application of the method to some respiratory disease data and comparisons with classical procedures are given, also.     

Bayesian Quantile Regression for Longitudinal Studies with Nonignorable Missing Data

Summary .  We study quantile regression (QR) for longitudinal measurements with nonignorable intermittent missing data and dropout. Compared to conventional mean regression, quantile regression can characterize the entire conditional distribution of the outcome variable, and is more robust to outliers and misspecification of the error distribution. We account for the within-subject correlation by introducing a   ℓ₂   penalty in the usual QR check function to shrink the subject-specific intercepts and slopes toward the common population values. The informative missing data are assumed to be related to the longitudinal outcome process through the shared latent random effects. We assess the performance of the proposed method using simulation studies, and illustrate it with data from a pediatric AIDS clinical trial.     

ABC as a flexible framework to estimate demography over space and time: some cons,many pros

The analysis of genetic variation to estimate demographic and historical parameters and to quantitatively compare alternative scenarios recently gained a powerful and flexible approach: the Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). The likelihood functions does not need to be theoretically specified, but posterior distributions can be approximated by simulation even assuming very complex population models including both natural and human‐induced processes. Prior information can be easily incorporated and the quality of the results can be analysed with rather limited additional effort. ABC is not a statistical analysis per se, but rather a statistical framework and any specific application is a sort of hybrid between a simulation and a data‐analysis study. Complete software packages performing the necessary steps under a set of models and for specific genetic markers are already available, but the flexibility of the method is better exploited combining different programs. Many questions relevant in ecology can be addressed using ABC, but adequate amount of time should be dedicated to decide among alternative options and to evaluate the results. In this paper we will describe and critically comment on the different steps of an ABC analysis, analyse some of the published applications of ABC and provide user guidelines.