Population structure and biology of alewives (Alosa pseudoharengus) and blueback herring (A. aestivalis) in the Saint John River,New Brunswick

Synopsis Examination of more than 2,000 alewives (Alosa pseudoharengus) and blueback herring (A. aestivalis) from various areas in the Saint John River, N.B., showed differences in their morphometric and meristic characters. They differed also in length and age, compositions, spawning time, length and age at maturity, back-calculated lengths, and growth parameters. Within each species, between-area comparisons showed significant differences in some of their meristic characteristics.To test a homing hypothesis for alewives, a multivariate analysis was performed on eight meristic characters. Two discriminant function programs, discriminant analysis for two groups and a multiple group stepwise discriminant analyses were used. Values of the generalized Mahalanobis D² and percent overlap in frequency distributions of meristic characters suggest that considerable straying of fish, especially between adjacent areas occurs during upstream spawning migration.This article is one of several papers presented at the Second European Ichthyological Congress, Paris, 8–15 September 1976, to be published in Environmental Biology of Fishes.     

How was the French BSE epidemic underestimated?

In a previous study, we showed that estimates of the BSE epidemic in France were censored by cattle mortality and by a lack of diagnosis. Indeed, we estimated that 51 300 cattle were infected by the BSE agent between 1987 and 1997, whereas only 103 clinical BSE cases were detected by the passive surveillance system up to June 2000. The question thus arises as to the part played by each form of censorship in this underestimation. Here, using an updated cattle survival distribution, we estimated that 44 800 cattle were infected by the BSE agent between 1987 and 1997, and that 7100 of them showed clinical signs of BSE up to June 2000, showing the low efficiency of the surveillance system. Moreover, between 2087 and 5980 'infectious' cattle, with clinical or preclinical BSE, entered the human food chain before July 1996, the date of the ban on specified bovine offal.     

A re-examination of the age and growth of sand tiger sharks, Carcharias taurus, in the western North Atlantic: the importance of ageing protocols and use of multiple back-calculation techniques

Age and growth estimates for sand tiger sharks, Carcharias taurus, in the western North Atlantic were derived from 96 vertebral centra collected from sharks ranging from 94 to 277 cm total length (TL), and compared to previously published age and growth data. The oldest female and male sand tiger sharks aged in this study were 17 and 15 years of age, respectively. von Bertalanffy growth parameters derived from vertebral length-at-age data are L _∞ = 295.8 cm TL, k = 0.11 year⁻¹, and t ₀ = −4.2 years for females, and L _∞ = 249.5 cm TL, k = 0.16 year⁻¹, and t ₀ = −3.4 years for males. Sexual maturity is estimated to be 9–10 years for females and 6–7 years for males. Weight-to-length relationships determined for female and male sand tiger sharks in the western North Atlantic are; W = 1.3 × 10⁻⁴ × L ^2.4 (r ² = 0.84, n = 55) and W = 9.0 × 10⁻⁵ × L ^2.5 (r ² = 0.84, n = 47), respectively, and 7.9 × 10⁻⁵ × L ^2.5 (r ² = 0.84) for the sexes combined. Our results show sand tigers possess a slower rate of growth than previously thought. This information is crucial for accurately assessing this population’s ability to recover, and further justifies the need for this species to be fully protected.     

The back-calculation of size and growth from otoliths: Validation and comparison of models at an individual level

Multiple internal and external tagging experiments tested the applicability of five back-calculation models (Biological Intercept, Modified-Fry, Body Proportional Hypothesis, Time-Varying Growth, and an Age-Effects model) as predictors of individual growth trajectories of two marine cleaning gobies, Elacatinus evelynae and E. prochilos, that were raised in aquaria under conditions that resulted in variable growth. Mixed-effect model analyses of longitudinal records of otoliths and somatic growth collected at the individual level revealed that E. evelynae and E. prochilos produced daily increments on their otoliths for up to two months post-settlement and that the Modified-Fry model provided the most accurate size-at-age estimates despite the presence of age, growth and time-varying growth effects in the dataset. Very large errors in predicted size were produced by the Age-Effects model. The four other back-calculation models all provided slightly biased estimates of back-calculated size-at-age, with the Modified-Fry model providing the least biased estimates. Regardless of bias, both experimental and theoretical evidence indicated that back-calculated size was a better proxy of fish length than otoliths radius. Relationships between fish length and otoliths radius were allometric at the level of individuals, which explained why the Modified-Fry model performed better. However, this allometry was undetectable at the population level. This study represents the first attempt to validate modern back-calculation models using longitudinal data collected and analysed at the individual level. Our results suggest the use of the Modified-Fry model as a conservative approach in routine back-calculations of fish size at age from otoliths.     

Faster or slower: has growth of eastern Baltic cod changed?

Recent environmental changes have influenced the ecology and biology of eastern Baltic cod. Declining somatic condition, maturation at smaller size and restricted size distribution of the population suggest that growth rates have decreased between the early 2000s and the 2010s. Extensive age estimation problems have until now precluded testing of this hypothesis. This study presents evidence for a decrease in somatic growth rate of Baltic cod. Temporal patterns of growth, condition and maturation were analysed based on two complementary analyses: length frequency mode progression derived from DATRAS bottom trawl survey data and known-age samples, where size at age was back-calculated from daily otolith growth patterns. In the known-age samples, growth was positively related to somatic condition at capture with maturity dependent differences. Immature individuals had experienced significantly lower growth and were in lower condition at capture than mature individuals. Growth rates in the known-age samples were estimated at 9.5, 7.8 and 5.7?cm per year for age classes 1, 2 and 3 respectively. Growth between age 2 and 3 decreased significantly from 8.8?cm in the 1997 year class to 7.6?cm in the 2010 year class. While the 2001 and 2004 known-age samples were representative for the population, the 2013 sample was biased towards individuals with a higher condition and growth. Complementary length frequency analysis following the length mode of fish from age 2 to age 3 confirmed growth estimates from the early 2000s, while suggesting a 37.5% lower growth in 2013 compared with 2005.     

Estimating incidence of the French BSE infection using a joint analysis of both asymptomatic and clinical BSE surveillance data

Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) clinical surveillance data were the main source of information to perform back-calculation of BSE infection incidence. Since 2001, systematic BSE screening tests enhanced the clinical surveillance and allowed to detect some preclinical, i.e. asymptomatic, cases of BSE. We propose a method to incorporate additional information provided by screening tests. It was the first time that a back-calculation model was developed for a full BSE clinical surveillance. In the spirit, our approach resembles what it was done in the Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) epidemic to incorporate the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) diagnosis. Nevertheless, in the BSE epidemic, we had to consider different surveillance systems, their peculiarity, and the phenomenon of communicating vessels between these surveillance systems. In addition, both the preclinical sensitivity of tests and the status of BSE cases, asymptomatic or clinical, were not precisely known. We applied the model to the French BSE epidemic in order to obtain an updated estimate of the incidence of BSE infection. Our back-calculation model fitted very well the observed data of each surveillance system. We detected a lengthening of the incubation period and estimated that the number of infections was very small in the late 1990s and zero in July 2001.     

Modeling Exposure Intensity and Susceptibility-Latency Effect from Retrospective Cohort Data - Application to Lung Cancer Mortality in Blackfoot Disease Endemic Area in Taiwan

It is challenge in epidemiology to characterize the temperol aspect of exposure-disease association. The authors propose a stochastic model to deal with exposures that are time-dependent and exhibit susceptibility and latency effects. The model is applied to a retrospective cohort data on lung cancer mortality in the blackfoot disease endemic area in Taiwan. The authors compare the proposed model with the multistage model, the back-calculation model, the catalytic model, and the age-period-cohort models.