East Atlantic teleconnection pattern and the decline of a common arctiid moth

Teleconnection patterns are large‐scale atmospheric circulation systems and variation in them is often associated with impacts on climate and weather over broad areas. Arctia caja L. is a well‐known, widespread and charismatic tiger moth. In recent decades, the abundance of A. caja in UK has fallen abruptly. The annual abundance of A. caja in UK is known to be affected adversely by wet winter weather and warm spring temperatures. We examined A. caja population dynamics from 1968 to 1999 for weather and climatological effects. Population growth rate displayed endogenous effects of abundance in the previous two seasons. Accounting for this, growth rate in the present season was still affected significantly by winter precipitation and spring temperature. Annual abundance of A. caja was inversely related to winter East Atlantic teleconnection pattern (winter EA index) and annual population growth rate was inversely related to winter EA in the present and previous two seasons. An index of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), commonly used as an indicator of winter climate in northern Europe, did not show a significant relationship with growth rate. We noted, for the first time, that the winter EA index has increased steadily over the past five decades. The model presented here therefore implies a further decline of A. caja population growth rates and abundance in the future. This is the first demonstration of a relationship between EA and population dynamics and indicates the EA and other lesser‐known teleconnection patterns may prove useful in modeling the ecological effects of climate change.     

Isolation and characterization of highly polymorphic microsatellite loci for the garden tiger moth Arctia caja (Lepidoptera: Arctiidae)

A set of microsatellite markers was isolated from Arctia caja, a species that has been declining in UK for several decades. As has been found with other Lepidoptera species, this proved to be a difficult task. Eight enriched libraries identified 103 positive clones, and these yielded only seven polymorphic microsatellites. Allelic diversity ranged from 10 to 23 alleles per locus in a population of 30 individuals. Significant heterozygosity deficits were shown by three of these loci, presumably due to null alleles. The remaining four loci were in Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium and will be used to investigate the population genetic structure of A. caja.     

An abundance–occupancy time-lag during the decline of an arctiid tiger moth

The positive interspecific abundance–occupancy relationship is one of the most general patterns in ecology. Positive intra specific relationships should also exist within species over time, and so a species should occupy more sites in years when it is more abundant. However, positive intraspecific relationships are not as ubiquitous as their interspecific counterparts. It has been hypothesized that low levels of temporal variation and time-lags between changes of abundance and occupancy within species make positive intraspecific relationships difficult to detect. We analyse 31 years of U.K.-wide data on the decline of an arctiid moth, Arctia caja , which provides the first empirical demonstration of an abundance–occupancy time-lag for any species. Such time-lags are probably common and we discuss their impact on the intraspecific abundance–occupancy relationship and their implications for conservation management. In A. caja , the time-lag indicates that the decline of the species is probably not driven by habitat loss.     

Large-Scale Temporal Changes in Spatial Pattern During Declines of Abundance and Occupancy in a Common Moth

We examined the changes in spatial pattern that accompanied the population decline of the garden tiger moth, Arctia caja (L.) in Britain between 1968 and 1999 using Spatial Analysis by Distance Indices (SADIE) techniques. A principal co-ordinate analysis of all pair-wise spatial associations between years indicated three groupings of years: 1969–1978,1979–1990,1991–1999, which revealed three phases during the population decline: an early period with highly structured spatial pattern; a middle period with nearly random distribution overall; and a recent period with highly structured spatial pattern but small abundance overall. The change in spatial structure in the early 1980’s accompanied rapid changes in abundance but preceded a sharp decline in occupancy and confirms that the sharp decline in abundance included decreases from widespread high-density sites. Perhaps unusually, A. caja varied from spatially aggregated to randomly distributed and back to spatially aggregated, all while its abundance declined sharply. Present distribution pattern may reflect past abundance changes poorly in this species. Areas showing the greatest variation in abundance displayed the greatest range in spatial structure, but also the greatest stability of spatial pattern, indicating changes between extremes of spatial pattern occurred slowly. SADIE techniques are a powerful method to quantify temporal changes in spatial pattern and relate them to temporal changes in abundance.