Interactive effects of rising temperatures and urbanisation on birds across different climate zones: A mechanistic perspective

Climate change and urbanisation are among the most pervasive and rapidly growing threats to biodiversity worldwide. However, their impacts are usually considered in isolation, and interactions are rarely examined. Predicting species' responses to the combined effects of climate change and urbanisation, therefore, represents a pressing challenge in global change biology. Birds are important model taxa for exploring the impacts of both climate change and urbanisation, and their behaviour and physiology have been well studied in urban and non-urban systems. This understanding should allow interactive effects of rising temperatures and urbanisation to be inferred, yet considerations of these interactions are almost entirely lacking from empirical research. Here, we synthesise our current understanding of the potential mechanisms that could affect how species respond to the combined effects of rising temperatures and urbanisation, with a focus on avian taxa. We discuss potential interactive effects to motivate future in-depth research on this critically important, yet overlooked, aspect of global change biology. Increased temperatures are a pronounced consequence of both urbanisation (through the urban heat island effect) and climate change. The biological impact of this warming in urban and non-urban systems will likely differ in magnitude and direction when interacting with other factors that typically vary between these habitats, such as resource availability (e.g. water, food and microsites) and pollution levels. Furthermore, the nature of such interactions may differ for cities situated in different climate types, for example, tropical, arid, temperate, continental and polar. Within this article, we highlight the potential for interactive effects of climate and urban drivers on the mechanistic responses of birds, identify knowledge gaps and propose promising future research avenues. A deeper understanding of the behavioural and physiological mechanisms mediating species' responses to urbanisation and rising temperatures will provide novel insights into ecology and evolution under global change and may help better predict future population responses.     

Integrating anthropogenic factors into regional‐scale species distribution models—A novel application in the imperiled sagebrush biome

Species distribution models (SDMs) that rely on regional‐scale environmental variables will play a key role in forecasting species occurrence in the face of climate change. However, in the Anthropocene, a number of local‐scale anthropogenic variables, including wildfire history, land‐use change, invasive species, and ecological restoration practices can override regional‐scale variables to drive patterns of species distribution. Incorporating these human‐induced factors into SDMs remains a major research challenge, in part because spatial variability in these factors occurs at fine scales, rendering prediction over regional extents problematic. Here, we used big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Nutt.) as a model species to explore whether including human‐induced factors improves the fit of the SDM. We applied a Bayesian hurdle spatial approach using 21,753 data points of field‐sampled vegetation obtained from the LANDFIRE program to model sagebrush occurrence and cover by incorporating fire history metrics and restoration treatments from 1980 to 2015 throughout the Great Basin of North America. Models including fire attributes and restoration treatments performed better than those including only climate and topographic variables. Number of fires and fire occurrence had the strongest relative effects on big sagebrush occurrence and cover, respectively. The models predicted that the probability of big sagebrush occurrence decreases by 1.2% (95% CI: ?6.9%, 0.6%) when one fire occurs and cover decreases by 44.7% (95% CI: ?47.9%, ?41.3%) if at least one fire occurred over the 36 year period of record. Restoration practices increased the probability of big sagebrush occurrence but had minimal effect on cover. Our results demonstrate the potential value of including disturbance and land management along with climate in models to predict species distributions. As an increasing number of datasets representing land‐use history become available, we anticipate that our modeling framework will have broad relevance across a range of biomes and species.     

A modest proposal for restoration ecology

Restoration ecology struggles to mitigate human‐caused ecological damage. Non‐native species are a particular challenge. This article describes two restoration attempts following introduced species in California and then makes a radical culling proposal. Environmental regulations, legal protections, and restoration projects are necessary to preserve ecosystem services, but such policies are often unpopular. Restorers often struggle when public opinion opposes evidence‐based practice, and this occurs particularly when the interventions involve killing mammals. Therefore, restoration efforts may benefit from more attention to how individuals perceive the acceptability of environmental policies and how to communicate policy options effectively for individuals to make informed decisions. Restoration ecology can follow the recent shift of medicine away from imperatives and toward informed patient choice. Restoration projects may benefit from recent advances in psychology and communication that help individuals make policy decisions that align with their personal values.     

Eco‐evolutionary experience in novel species interactions

A better understanding of how ecological novelty influences interactions in new combinations of species is key for predicting interaction outcomes, and can help focus conservation and management efforts on preventing the introduction of novel organisms or species (including invasive species, GMOs, synthetic organisms, resurrected species and emerging pathogens) that seem particularly ‘risky’ for resident species. Here, we consider the implications of different degrees of eco‐evolutionary experience of interacting resident and non‐resident species, define four qualitative risk categories for estimating the probability of successful establishment and impact of novel species and discuss how the effects of novelty change over time. Focusing then on novel predator–prey interactions, we argue that novelty entails density‐dependent advantages for non‐resident species, with their largest effects often being at low prey densities. This is illustrated by a comparison of predator functional responses and prey predation risk curves between novel species and ecologically similar resident species, and raises important issues for the conservation of endangered resident prey species.     

Distinct protoconchs recognised in three of the larger Mediterranean Cerithium species (Caenogastropoda: Cerithiidae)

The gastropod genus Cerithium includes several polymorphic species which are hardly distinguishable using a morphological approach based on teleoconch characters. Here we show that protoconch characters can be reliably used to identify the larger Mediterranean species (Cerithium alucastrum, C. repandum and C. vulgatum), and to assess their intraspecific variability. Based on a large amount of morphological data, we show that a multispiral, strongly sculptured protoconch (traditionally associated with C. vulgatum) is found in C. alucastrum. This species originated in the Pliocene. A multispiral, weakly sculptured protoconch, not observed previously, is reported for C. vulgatum. A paucispiral protoconch, distinct from those observed previously for C. lividulum and C. renovatum, is reported for C. repandum and can be used for recognising its wide intraspecific variation and understanding its geographical distribution. Cerithium repandum, previously doubtfully recorded outside its type locality, extends back to the mid-Pliocene and is today rather widely distributed in the Mediterranean, although absent from the Aegean Sea and the Alboran Sea. We describe the larval development of C. repandum and C. vulgatum for the first time, confirming their respective non-planktotrophic and planktotrophic development previously inferred from protoconch morphology. Also, we report a possible case of morphological convergence between C. repandum and C. vulgatum occurring in harbour sites, where we found a distinct (possibly Anthropocene) shell form not described previously from other Recent or fossil material.     

The Age of Angels: spiritualism and evolutionary progressionism in a nineteenth-century geologic time chart

The term ‘Anthropocene’ often carries apocalyptic overtones of environmental devastation, but many nineteenth-century iterations of the ‘Age of Humans’ idea were explicitly optimistic. The current time period was framed as a ‘Psychozoic Era’ or ‘Age of Mind’ in which human beings took their predetermined place at the pinnacle of ‘creation’. Hiram Alvin Reid, an amateur scientist in the midwestern United States, took this line of thinking a step further. He drafted a geologic time chart in which the current ‘Age of Man’ was succeeded by a future ‘Age of Angels’, wherein humans will become higher beings. Reid was a Christian spiritualist who thought that evolution drove both physical and spiritual advancement, including the recent development of a ‘sixth sense’ that allowed humans to perceive ghosts and angels. Reid’s views, while idiosyncratic and coloured by his metaphysical beliefs, drew heavily on mainstream concepts in biology and geology. Prominent geologists like James Dana and Joseph Le Conte argued for an Age of Mind in terms that mixed scientific rigor with religious and progressionist ideas. The Psychozoic was also embraced by many progressive-minded individuals outside the natural sciences, paralleling widespread modern interest in the Anthropocene.     

Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology,human use and conservation

Tropical grassy biomes (TGBs) are changing rapidly the world over through a coalescence of high rates of land-use change, global change and altered disturbance regimes that maintain the ecosystem structure and function of these biomes. Our theme issue brings together the latest research examining the characterization, complex ecology, drivers of change, and human use and ecosystem services of TGBs. Recent advances in ecology and evolution have facilitated a new perspective on these biomes. However, there continues to be controversies over their classification and state dynamics that demonstrate critical data and knowledge gaps in our quantitative understanding of these geographically dispersed regions. We highlight an urgent need to improve ecological understanding in order to effectively predict the sensitivity and resilience of TGBs under future scenarios of global change. With human reliance on TGBs increasing and their propensity for change, ecological and evolutionary understanding of these biomes is central to the dual goals of sustaining their ecological integrity and the diverse services these landscapes provide to millions of people.This article is part of the themed issue ‘Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology, human use and conservation’.     

Biogeographic and anthropogenic correlates of Aleutian Islands plant diversity: A machine‐learning approach

This is the first comprehensive analysis of vascular plant diversity patterns in the Aleutian Islands to identify and quantify the impact of Aleutian Island distance dispersal barriers, geographical, ecological and anthropogenic factors. Data from public Open Access databases, printed floristic accounts, and from collections made by the primary author were used to develop an Aleutian floristic database. The most common plant distribution pattern was “an eastern origin community”, though it compared similarly to the “Western” and “Widespread” distribution pattern. We established an ecological plant community composition class for each island, based on clustering species assemblage dissimilarity measurements (Jaccard Index), and a measurement of phylogenetic dissimilarity (UniFrac). We modelled these composition classes and species richness values in non‐parametric algorithmic models and concepts (data cloning using machine learning, stochastic boosting‐ TreeNet) based on classic and Aleutians‐specific island biogeography hypotheses. Plant species richness is strongly associated with the equilibrium model variables of area and island isolation, as well as distance to the Alaska Peninsula, and island total stream length. Species composition is strongly associated with the landmass groups during the last glacial maximum, maximum island elevation, island isolation and island area. Phylogenetic composition is associated with island area, distance from the islands to the Chukotka Peninsula, maximum island elevation, island geologic age, and island isolation. This study extends the equilibrium theory of island biogeography by including additional drivers of diversity during the Anthropocene, such as the landmass during the LGM, as well as factors that may be related to anthropogenic extinction rate.     

Mauritius on fire: Tracking historical human impacts on biodiversity loss

Fire was rare on Mauritius prior to human arrival (AD 1598); subsequently three phases of elevated fire activity occurred: ca 1630–1747, 1787–1833, and 1950–modern. Elevated fire frequency coincided with periods of high human impact evidenced from the historical record, and is linked to the extinction of island endemics.