A simulation approach for power calculation in large cohort studies based on multistate models

Realistic power calculations for large cohort studies and nested case control studies are essential for successfully answering important and complex research questions in epidemiology and clinical medicine. For this, we provide a methodical framework for general realistic power calculations via simulations that we put into practice by means of an R‐based template. We consider staggered recruitment and individual hazard rates, competing risks, interaction effects, and the misclassification of covariates. The study cohort is assembled with respect to given age‐, gender‐, and community distributions. Nested case‐control analyses with a varying number of controls enable comparisons of power with a full cohort analysis. Time‐to‐event generation under competing risks, including delayed study‐entry times, is realized on the basis of a six‐state Markov model. Incidence rates, prevalence of risk factors and prefixed hazard ratios allow for the assignment of age‐dependent transition rates given in the form of Cox models. These provide the basis for a central simulation‐algorithm, which is used for the generation of sample paths of the underlying time‐inhomogeneous Markov processes. With the inclusion of frailty terms into the Cox models the Markov property is specifically biased. An “individual Markov process given frailty” creates some unobserved heterogeneity between individuals. Different left‐truncation‐ and right‐censoring patterns call for the use of Cox models for data analysis. p‐values are recorded over repeated simulation runs to allow for the desired power calculations. For illustration, we consider scenarios with a “testing” character as well as realistic scenarios. This enables the validation of a correct implementation of theoretical concepts and concrete sample size recommendations against an actual epidemiological background, here given with possible substudy designs within the German National Cohort.     

Effect of feeding boxes on the behavior of stereotyping amur tigers (Panthera tigris altaica) in the Zurich Zoo,Zurich, Switzerland

The stereotyped pacing shown by the two Amur tigers in the Zurich Zoo was hypothesized as being caused by permanently frustrated appetitive foraging behavior. Several electrically controlled feeding boxes were installed and access to each box was possible only twice a day for 15 min at semi‐random times. The boxes had to be opened actively by the tigers. Two trials were carried out: one with solitary confinement, and one with paired confinement. During box feeding, the female's stereotyped pacing was significantly reduced from 16% (solitary confinement, conventional feeding) and 7% (paired confinement, conventional feeding) to 1% (solitary confinement) and less than 0.01% (paired confinement) of the daily observed time. The female's sleeping increased significantly in both solitary and paired confinement. The male only showed a significant reduction in stereotyped pacing behavior when kept with the female (conventional feeding: 10%; box feeding: <0.01% of the daily observed time). On days with a box‐feeding regime in paired confinement, the male spent 25% (83 min) of the observed time with active behavior at the feeding boxes. The results support the hypothesis that permanently frustrated appetitive foraging behavior causes stereotyped pacing in adult tigers. Zoo Biol 21:573–584, 2002. © 2002 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Human λ light chain locus: Organization and DNA sequences of three genomicJ regions

Evidence for the genomic organization of human lambda light chain joining (J) region gene segments is presented. A mouse J probe was used in Southern hybridizations to localize joining region sequences in a cosmid clone containing the genomic cluster of six human lambda constant (C) region gene segments. The results of these hybridizations suggest the presence of at least one J gene segment upstream from each constant region gene segment. The DNA sequences indicate that the human JI, J2, and J3 gene segments have consensus nonamer and heptamer sequences, proposed to be involved in V-J joining, are capable of encoding the known amino acid sequences for the respective J peptides, and have a sequence which could give functional RNA splice site at the end of their coding regions. Our data show that a single functional J is located 1.3 or 1.6 kb upstream of each of the C gene segments known to encode the Mcg, Kern^– Oz^–, and Kern^–Oz⁺ isotypes. Therefore, the gene organization of this region of the human lambda locus is J1 CI -J2C2-J3C3. The DNA sequences ofJ 1,J 2, andJ 3 presented in this paper establish that a singleJ gene segment precedes each expressed C gene segment, and support a model for the evolution of the human JC clusters where JICI andJ2C2-J3C3. arose from different ancestral JC units.     

Operculum closing as a defence against predatory leeches in four British freshwater prosobranch snails

The defence reaction of operculum closing in response to the presence of the molluscivorous leech Glossiphonia complanata (L.) and the non-molluscivorous Erpobdella octoculata (L.) was studied in four species of freshwater prosobranch gastropod. Bithynia tentaculata (L.) and Valvata piscinalis (Müller) can distinguish between the leeches, reacting only to G. complanata. V. piscinalis is capable of a greater degree of distance chemoreception of the leech ‘scent’. Valvata cristata Müller and Potamopyrgus jenkinsi (Smith) did not react to either leech. V. cristata may not be a potential prey item for G. complanata, while P. jenkinsi is fed on by the leech, but is a relative newcomer to the freshwater fauna. Animal Ecology Research Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford Commonwealth Forestry Institute, Department of Plant Sciences, University of Oxford     

Surface changes in the naturally ankylosed teeth of the frog Rana pipiens during growth and maturation: an SEM study

An SEM study of the surface morphology of the major stages of mature and developing teeth of the leopard frog was made using anorganic preparations of the teeth and jaws. After initial development, the crown area changed little during subsequent tooth eruption, ankylosis and maturation. The thin enamel covering extended further down the shaft than expected. After ankylosis, the surfaces of the tooth continued to mature. The unmineralized gap between the crown and the pedestal, which is prominent in most amphibians, gradually filled in as the ankylosed tooth aged. The upper portion of the pedestal initially formed a dentine surface which was globular in appearance due to partial calcification of the surface collagen fibres but became smooth with uniformly calcified fibres as the ankylosed tooth matured. The lower portion of the pedestal was more variable and there was a gradual transition of dentine into a more cellular, bone-like tissue which contained lacunae and larger fibre bundles. This bone-like tissue was very distinct in surface morphology from the bone of the adjacent jaw, and as the tooth matured it changed from a coarse, woven appearance to one more like lamellar bone. Resorption bays were present in both the dentine and bony areas of teeth which were being shed. During development, the pedestal, which attaches the tooth to the jaw, formed as a separate calcification site and did not form a complete ring until fusion of its buccal surface with that of the overlying crown. A bony buccal lip formed early as part of the pedestal.     

Kinetic measurement of bacterial adherence to eukaryotic cells

We developed a kinetic assay using a monolayer of differentiated respiratory epithelium in culture to assess bacterial adherence. Mean residence time of bacteria in the tissue culture chamber was estimated from a model-independent (moment) analysis of the rate of bacterial washout from perfused Rose chambers. Results with this method compared favorably with visual assessment of adherence and double radiolabel method with H. influenzae. Adherence was assessed with low inoculae of H. influenzae, P. cepacia and P. aeruginosa avoiding cytotoxic effects seen when large inoculae are added to eukaryotic cells. This method will provide a means of assessing adherence of pathogenic respiratory bacteria to their cellular target at low inoculae.     

A selection cartridge for rapid detection and analysis of spontaneous mutations including insertions of transposable elements in Enterobacteriaceae

Summary We present a method that allows positive selection and rapid analysis of mutations in Enterobacteriaceae. Mutations are detected in a 2630 bp selection cartridge inserted in two different bacterial mutlicopy plasmid vectors. Spontaneous mutations in Escherichia coli, Enterobacter cloacae and Citrobacter freundii include insertions, deletions and point mutations. The small size of the target sequence facilitates rapid analysis of DNA rearrangements by cleavage with restriction enzymes and of any type of mutation by DNA sequence analysis. While in E. coli insertions of the mobile elements IS1, IS2 and IS5 were readily found, insertions of putative new transposable elements were detected in Enterobacter cloacae. The selection cartridge can thus serve as a tool for studying the spectrum of insertion mutations in Enterobacteriaceae and probably other Gramnegative bacteria, and the dependency of this spectrum on physiological and environmental factors and the host's genetic background can be investigated.