Morbidity Rate Prediction of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) Using the Support Vector Machine and the Aedes aegypti Infection Rate in Similar Climates and Geographical Areas

BackgroundIn the past few decades, several researchers have proposed highly accurate prediction models that have typically relied on climate parameters. However, climate factors can be unreliable and can lower the effectiveness of prediction when they are applied in locations where climate factors do not differ significantly. The purpose of this study was to improve a dengue surveillance system in areas with similar climate by exploiting the infection rate in the Aedes aegypti mosquito and using the support vector machine (SVM) technique for forecasting the dengue morbidity rate.ConclusionsThe infection rates of the Ae. aegypti female mosquitoes and larvae improved the morbidity rate forecasting efficiency better than the climate parameters used in classical frameworks. We demonstrated that the SVM-R-based model has high generalization performance and obtained the highest prediction performance compared to classical models as measured by the accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and mean absolute error (MAE).     

Evaluation of attractants and egg-laying substrate preference for oviposition by Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae).

Evaluation of oviposition attractants and substrate preferences of Aedes albopictus was carried out under laboratory and field conditions. To obtain candidate oviposition substances we used a water rinse of 3 mollusk species: blood cockle (Anadara granosa), carpet shell (Paphia undulata), and sea mussel (Mytilus smaragdinus), and the giant tiger prawn (Penaeus monodon). The rinse water of carpet shell and giant tiger prawn showed higher attractiveness for ovipostion than the other candidate attractants. The filter paper substrate received fewer eggs than the other two substrates. There was no significant difference between the mean number of eggs laid on hardboard paddles and sponge sheets. The hatching rate of Ae. albopictus eggs laid on hardboard paddles was higher than those from the filter papers and sponge sheets. The sponge had lethal effects on Ae. albopictus eggs, and very few eggs laid on sponge hatched. In field experiments, evaluation of attractiveness of carpet shell rinse in ovitraps lined with sponge sheet as egg-laying substrate was carried out in various habitats and different areas of Thailand. The mean number of eggs in traps containing carpet shell rinse was significantly higher than those laid in rainwater traps. These studies reveal that the carpet shell and giant tiger prawn rinses are sources of oviposition attractant for Ae. albopictus under both laboratory and field conditions and could possibly be used as an attractant in surveillance and control.