Spatio-temporal impact of climate change on the activity and voltinism of the spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus

The spruce bark beetle Ips typographus is one of the major insect pests of mature Norway spruce forests. In this study, a model describing the temperature-dependent thresholds for swarming activity and temperature requirement for development from egg to adult was driven by transient regional climate scenario data for Sweden, covering the period of 1961–2100 for three future climate change scenarios (SRES A2, A1B and B2). During the 20th century, the weather supported the production of one bark beetle generation per year, except in the north-western mountainous parts of Sweden where the climate conditions were too harsh. A warmer climate may sustain a viable population also in the mountainous part; however, the distributional range of I. typographus may be restricted by the migration speed of Norway spruce. Modelling suggests that an earlier timing of spring swarming and fulfilled development of the first generation will significantly increase the frequency of summer swarming. Model calculations suggest that the spruce bark beetle will be able to initiate a second generation in South Sweden during 50% of the years around the mid century. By the end of the century, when temperatures during the bark beetle activity period are projected to have increased by 2.4–3.8 °C, a second generation will be initiated in South Sweden in 63–81% of the years. The corresponding figures are 16–33% for Mid Sweden, and 1–6% for North Sweden. During the next decades, one to two generations per year are predicted in response to temperature, and the northern distribution limit for the second generation will vary. Our study addresses questions applicable to sustainable forest management, suggesting that adequate countermeasures require monitoring of regional differences in timing of swarming and development of I. typographus , and planning of control operations during summer periods with large populations of bark beetles.     

Population history and genetic structure of a circumpolar species: the arctic fox

The circumpolar arctic fox Alopex lagopus thrives in cold climates and has a high migration rate involving long-distance movements. Thus, it differs from many temperate taxa that were subjected to cyclical restriction in glacial refugia during the Ice Ages. We investigated population history and genetic structure through mitochondrial control region variation in 191 arctic foxes from throughout the arctic. Several haplotypes had a Holarctic distribution and no phylogeographical structure was found. Furthermore, there was no difference in haplotype diversity between populations inhabiting previously glaciated and unglaciated regions. This suggests current gene flow among the studied populations, with the exception of those in Iceland, which is surrounded by year-round open water. Arctic foxes have often been separated into two ecotypes: 'lemming' and 'coastal'. An analysis of molecular variance suggested particularly high gene flow among populations of the 'lemming' ecotype. This could be explained by their higher migration rate and reduced fitness in migrants between ecotypes. A mismatch analysis indicated a sudden expansion in population size around 118 000 BP, which coincides with the last interglacial. We propose that glacial cycles affected the arctic fox in a way opposite to their effect on temperate species, with interglacials leading to short-term isolation in northern refugia.  © 2005 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society , 2005, 84 , 79–89.